I think you are right. There is definitely an anti-Biden sentiment for all those things blew up during or just after the pandemic. Those are some serious issues, but people forget that many of them were happening back in 2018/19 as well, or the job that Biden has done to help with them.
This is always a potential problem for any president.
All that being said, I think abortion is going to haunt the GOP and Trump. He can try to pretend he's against a nation-wide ban, but he's also bragged about it. There are many women who voted against GOPers in the senate and Congress because of this. Remember the non-existent Red Wave? There could definitely be a repeat of that dud come this November.
Exactly how much of a force the abortion issue will be is hard to determine.
A lot of people repeatedly insisted it would just blow over. It hasn't looked to go that way.
Protest votes could really fuck the US up. I mean, Biden's handling of, say Israel, is not great. But what would Trump do differently? I doubt he'd demand Israel stop the land war, or say shit about Bibi....Hell, he might encourage more drastic action....
Trump has said repeatedly that the problem is that Biden is too weak in supporting Israel.
Also that Hamas never would have attacked on October 7 if he was president because they would have been too afraid.
The Israeli government itself has said they would get more support from Trump.
That said, protest votes are often about "I don't like the status quo" so they tend to hurt the incumbent.
There will be protest votes cast that are all about "Biden is letting the students protest and not cracking down on them and arresting them, this is chaos, we need Trump". (This was the Nixon pitch back in 68.)
Also, there is just the simple fact that many people think of voting as expressing their personal opinion about the world and not about choosing a president.
They don't understand the system or what a 'protest vote' actually does in terms of effect.
