Reverie

Biden vs trump

Frankfooter

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Apr 10, 2015
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You believe all one million are going to not vote or vote third party next year?
That's not how humans work.
A huge number of that million votes is also probably in safe states like New York and California, where they could all not vote and it won't hurt Biden at all.

That said - a mass exodus of the muslim vote in Michigan could easily swing it back to Trump.
Biden lost 11% of dem support as well with his support for Israel.
I have no idea how many will come back for 2024, but you also can't say this isn't a major problem for the dems.

Protests on the streets are a good way of judging how angry voters are and these protests are the biggest since BLM and Iraq.
 

Leimonis

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Bleeding hearts who marched for BLM and now see PLM as an issue.
Bleeding hearts who don't back genocide.
meanwhile bleeding hearts are helping trump right now, not to mention are working towards effectively ending the state of israel which would be October 7 x1000
 

Frankfooter

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meanwhile bleeding hearts are helping trump right now, not to mention are working towards effectively ending the state of israel which would be October 7 x1000
Not even close. Biden's team Israeli is pushing him to back an incredibly unpopular policy. They know it can't last, politico says that its weeks at most according to the insiders. I'd expect its not going to last that long.

Hezbollah is threatening to join now if it continues and world support for the US has tanked massively, especially amongst Muslim countries that were just recovering from the GWOT. This just clarifies that US foreign policy is always pretty much the same and that makes the world much less safe.

Israel has never been really threatened by Hamas, they have no army and even with a surprise they could only just barely get outside the prison walls for a day. They keep bragging about how great the Iron Dome is, so even the threat of homemade rockets isn't that serious.

What will be existential is only to the zionist movement. Its now tarred as a genocidal, racial supremacist movement with Jews now being arrested globally for protesting zionism.

The US is now actively taking part in the genocide. The pentagon confirms they are flying drones over Gaza and the US government debated and decided to send an extra $14 billion for bombs on Gaza. Those are moves of active participation.

The bigger question is whether Biden loses the youth vote and all the good will he was starting to accumulate and whether this dooms the dems. Same with Trudeau up here, is this going to damage his reelection hopes too?

 
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Leimonis

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Not even close. Biden's team Israeli is pushing him to back an incredibly unpopular policy. They know it can't last, politico says that its weeks at most according to the insiders. I'd expect its not going to last that long.

Hezbollah is threatening to join now if it continues and world support for the US has tanked massively, especially amongst Muslim countries that were just recovering from the GWOT. This just clarifies that US foreign policy is always pretty much the same and that makes the world much less safe.

Israel has never been really threatened by Hamas, they have no army and even with a surprise they could only just barely get outside the prison walls for a day. They keep bragging about how great the Iron Dome is, so even the threat of homemade rockets isn't that serious.

What will be existential is only to the zionist movement. Its now tarred as a genocidal, racial supremacist movement with Jews now being arrested globally for protesting zionism.

The US is now actively taking part in the genocide. The pentagon confirms they are flying drones over Gaza and the US government debated and decided to send an extra $14 billion for bombs on Gaza. Those are moves of active participation.

The bigger question is whether Biden loses the youth vote and all the good will he was starting to accumulate and whether this dooms the dems. Same with Trudeau up here, is this going to damage his reelection hopes too?

You genuinely believe that tearing down Gaza walls and allowing Gazans to mix with general population of israel will not end in a massive bloodshed? Really?
 
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Frankfooter

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You genuinely believe that tearing down Gaza walls and allowing Gazans to mix with general population of israel will not end in a massive bloodshed? Really?
Yes, I do believe that.
Has it happened inside the green line? Has it happened in the West Bank?

What else you gonna do? Kill them all? Try to ship them to Egypt?
You can't keep the concentration camp running after this, Israel blew up all the housing, schools and infrastracture.

What's your endgame?

 
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Darts

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"Today, Arabs make up roughly 1.2 percent of the overall U.S. Population.

As of 2020, the core American Jewish population is estimated at 2.4% of the total US population."

One group is growing and the other group is pretty much static.

Political power comes with population growth.

It's ironic that many, maybe most, of the people who oppose Trump's Muslim ban were Jewish.

 
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Frankfooter

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"Today, Arabs make up roughly 1.2 percent of the overall U.S. Population.

As of 2020, the core American Jewish population is estimated at 2.4% of the total US population."

One group is growing and the other group is pretty much static.

Political power comes with population growth.

It's ironic that many, maybe most, of the people who oppose Trump's Muslim ban were Jewish.

But about half of Jews don't back zionism and apartheid.
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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Biden lost 11% of dem support as well with his support for Israel.
I have no idea how many will come back for 2024, but you also can't say this isn't a major problem for the dems.

Protests on the streets are a good way of judging how angry voters are and these protests are the biggest since BLM and Iraq.
I didn't say it wasn't a major problem.
I am saying making sweeping statements about how all those people won't vote in a year is silly.

Yes, given subjects drive voters in all kinds of ways, but very few people are single issue voters and no voting bloc is a monolith.
 

Frankfooter

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I didn't say it wasn't a major problem.
I am saying making sweeping statements about how all those people won't vote in a year is silly.

Yes, given subjects drive voters in all kinds of ways, but very few people are single issue voters and no voting bloc is a monolith.
That's a fair point, but I've also never seen posts like this after any policy shift either.
 

Frankfooter

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Yes you have.
There are posts like that all the time from people on Twitter about anything the Democrats do.
It's basically Butler's bread and butter.
No, same here.
The posts about Mari Stiles after she canned Sarah Jama were endless and very different. Including people I know and who were longtime NDP supporters. Same thing is happening with Trudeau.

There is actually a corollary between issues that get people on the streets in massive protests and changes in voting.
Feel free to check out a protest first hand and remember the changes in public perception after the Iraq protests, Greta climate change and BLM protests. These protests are as big as any of those and do signify a large change in attitude, even if its not recognized by political leaders at the time.

 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
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There is actually a corollary between issues that get people on the streets in massive protests and changes in voting.
There is a correlation, but it isn't obvious or linear.
Also, when the other side to vote for is even MORE in favor of the thing you are protesting, its harder to read what the protests will do.

Feel free to check out a protest first hand and remember the changes in public perception after the Iraq protests, Greta climate change and BLM protests. These protests are as big as any of those and do signify a large change in attitude, even if its not recognized by political leaders at the time.
The Iraq protests were some of the largest anti-war protests ever.
George Bush won the next election anyway.

The BLM protests resulted in a mixed record of voting, some very small moves to police reform that have mostly faded away entirely.
The climate change protests certainly didn't usher in a wave of climate activist politicians.
The Dobbs decision has probably been among the most politically salient in the last 10 years, but that is almost certainly because the GOP followed up the decision with attempts to ban abortion comprehensively almost immediately and have stuck with that. It made it very clear how a vote was going to affect things.

These things are not easy to predict - especially months ahead.
 

Frankfooter

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There is a correlation, but it isn't obvious or linear.
Also, when the other side to vote for is even MORE in favor of the thing you are protesting, its harder to read what the protests will do.



The Iraq protests were some of the largest anti-war protests ever.
George Bush won the next election anyway.

The BLM protests resulted in a mixed record of voting, some very small moves to police reform that have mostly faded away entirely.
The climate change protests certainly didn't usher in a wave of climate activist politicians.
The Dobbs decision has probably been among the most politically salient in the last 10 years, but that is almost certainly because the GOP followed up the decision with attempts to ban abortion comprehensively almost immediately and have stuck with that. It made it very clear how a vote was going to affect things.

These things are not easy to predict - especially months ahead.
I agree its hard to predict how big this will be in one year for the US election.
But the genocide is also not over by a long shot and stands to get worse for Biden the longer it goes on.

It was the same in 2021, but Biden stopped it sooner.

 

mandrill

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Aug 23, 2001
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There is a correlation, but it isn't obvious or linear.
Also, when the other side to vote for is even MORE in favor of the thing you are protesting, its harder to read what the protests will do.

The Iraq protests were some of the largest anti-war protests ever.
George Bush won the next election anyway.

The BLM protests resulted in a mixed record of voting, some very small moves to police reform that have mostly faded away entirely.
The climate change protests certainly didn't usher in a wave of climate activist politicians.
The Dobbs decision has probably been among the most politically salient in the last 10 years, but that is almost certainly because the GOP followed up the decision with attempts to ban abortion comprehensively almost immediately and have stuck with that. It made it very clear how a vote was going to affect things.

These things are not easy to predict - especially months ahead.
There is also the fact that the USA is so massively populous that a huge rally for anything simply means that a group of people are passionate about an issue - and that group of people can represent less than 1% of the general electorate or 60%.
 
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Frankfooter

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There is also the fact that the USA is so massively populous that a huge rally for anything simply means that a group of people are passionate about an issue - and that group of people can represent less than 1% of the general electorate or 60%.
This issue will split the dems and seriously hurt Biden's support.
Its putting the US back 3 decades in good will around the world.

It will undo the respect for everything else Biden has done.
 
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