Yes, I already mentioned the 2020 election.
Less movement than we saw in earlier shifts away from Democrats and also you claimed there was a specifically "pro-Trump" shift happening now.
Articles from 2020 don't address that, we need something from 2023. (Or maybe late 2022 on the edge.)
Ready?
Its about personality and promises kept.
Obama, in the eyes of many Black Americans did nothing. They were disproportionately affected by the sub prime mortgage failure that result in 500,000 foreclosures, while the banks were bailed out. 85 million Americans are uninsured or under insured. No justice reform. Supported gay marriage( yes black evangelicals are very homophobic). And did not stop the wars. All promises he failed on in their opinion. His charisma, also works against him as it makes him a focal point for the ire. Hence the losses.
But he didn't run against Trump. Then really the main factor in the increase over the Trump presidency can be explained that he did something right. And he did. The First Step Act, and pardons were issued. He signed the deal on Afghanistan to withdraw, and put no new troops on the ground. And did the Scotus thing that resulted in Row v Wade, that Black evangelicals liked as much as white ones.
You may not like the reasons, but the factors are pretty clear.
And polling is sparse at the moment. But imo it will bear out what I'm saying.
You guys go ahead and tut tut. That's how he got in the first time. To best him you have to understand the mindsets. And take no constituency for granted.