Can Putin be assassinated?
- Thread starter poker
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Some comments:
1. Navalny is an asshole and always has been. Much of the "pro democratic" opposition that is lionized in Russia by the west are ultra nationalists. There appears to be no viable actual western style democratic opposition.
2. Moscow is the only city that counts politically in Russia. The rest of Russia can disintegrate, as it did in 2018-2021, Moscow will eventually re assimilate the provinces. (Both of these points are Kamil Kazani).
3. Yes, it is potentially viable for an unknown future adversary to thunder run on Moscow from Kharkiv. But no one is seriously going to do it. Why would they?..... Leaving aside that Russia is a nuclear power.
1. Navalny is an asshole and always has been. Much of the "pro democratic" opposition that is lionized in Russia by the west are ultra nationalists. There appears to be no viable actual western style democratic opposition.
2. Moscow is the only city that counts politically in Russia. The rest of Russia can disintegrate, as it did in 2018-2021, Moscow will eventually re assimilate the provinces. (Both of these points are Kamil Kazani).
3. Yes, it is potentially viable for an unknown future adversary to thunder run on Moscow from Kharkiv. But no one is seriously going to do it. Why would they?..... Leaving aside that Russia is a nuclear power.
It could be done, but what happens afterwards might be even more scarier
Anyone has as much common sense as Michael Corleone
would understand it is a lot less costly for a crime boss to order
his henchman to kill someone than through charity donation
to an army to get the job done. Perhaps people are already
wanting to win the Ukraine proxy war on the cheap to have entertained
the option of taking out Putin by assassination.
Its actually written their constitution that assassination of the head of state is grounds for a Nuclear strike.
So, if a cabal of Russian oligarchs chuck, chuck, chuck Putin to death with shivs, does that mean Russia has the constitutional basis to nuke itself to hell?
As far as I can tell,
Read the fine print: Russia's nuclear weapon use policy
In 2020, Putin signed a decree specifying conditions under which Russia would use nuclear weapons: 1) in response to a nuclear weapon attack and 2) in response to a conventional weapon attack if Russia’s existence is threatened. The first condition is unsurprising, but the second condition is...
thebulletin.org
"In June 2020, Putin signed a decree—the Basic Principles of the Russian Federation’s State Policy in the Domain of Nuclear Deterrence—that specifies two conditions under which Russia would use nuclear weapons. The first is unsurprising: “The Russian Federation retains the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies…” But that sentence ends with an unusual statement: “… and also in the case of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is put under threat”"
No mention of assassination. Also if it's an internal assassination who would you nuke as Anbarandy points out.
Also even for an external hit, it's a bit of an over reaction. Yeah dude is dead, but are you going to kill of a 1/3 to half the Russian population just because someone sends murder hobos after the HNIC. I mean fuck, if it was in the constitution I think someone would have said before this... hey maybe this isn't such a good idea.
But a reasonable citation would remove my doubts.
Isn't that the ruling administrations of these two were
no more already when they were killed? If you want Putin
to be killed like them the proxies in Kyiv will have to work
a lot harder, maybe nothing short of marching on Moscow
to pull off a regime change first.
No, no, no .... Butler doesn't need to provide a citation from the text of the mysterious Constitution of Russia that "assassination means equals nuclear annihilation, he just has to "feel or sense or have improbable cause to believe" that it is so.As far as I can tell,
Read the fine print: Russia's nuclear weapon use policy
In 2020, Putin signed a decree specifying conditions under which Russia would use nuclear weapons: 1) in response to a nuclear weapon attack and 2) in response to a conventional weapon attack if Russia’s existence is threatened. The first condition is unsurprising, but the second condition is...
"In June 2020, Putin signed a decree—the Basic Principles of the Russian Federation’s State Policy in the Domain of Nuclear Deterrence—that specifies two conditions under which Russia would use nuclear weapons. The first is unsurprising: “The Russian Federation retains the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies…” But that sentence ends with an unusual statement: “… and also in the case of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is put under threat”"
No mention of assassination. Also if it's an internal assassination who would you nuke as Anbarandy points out.
Also even for an external hit, it's a bit of an over reaction. Yeah dude is dead, but are you going to kill of a 1/3 to half the Russian population just because someone sends murder hobos after the HNIC. I mean fuck, if it was in the constitution I think someone would have said before this... hey maybe this isn't such a good idea.
But a reasonable citation would remove my doubts.
That is how it was interpreted due to the power Putin wields. Similar to North Korea. Conventional does include assassination.As far as I can tell,
Read the fine print: Russia's nuclear weapon use policy
In 2020, Putin signed a decree specifying conditions under which Russia would use nuclear weapons: 1) in response to a nuclear weapon attack and 2) in response to a conventional weapon attack if Russia’s existence is threatened. The first condition is unsurprising, but the second condition is...
"In June 2020, Putin signed a decree—the Basic Principles of the Russian Federation’s State Policy in the Domain of Nuclear Deterrence—that specifies two conditions under which Russia would use nuclear weapons. The first is unsurprising: “The Russian Federation retains the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies…” But that sentence ends with an unusual statement: “… and also in the case of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is put under threat”"
No mention of assassination. Also if it's an internal assassination who would you nuke as Anbarandy points out.
Also even for an external hit, it's a bit of an over reaction. Yeah dude is dead, but are you going to kill of a 1/3 to half the Russian population just because someone sends murder hobos after the HNIC. I mean fuck, if it was in the constitution I think someone would have said before this... hey maybe this isn't such a good idea.
But a reasonable citation would remove my doubts.
Seriously do you think if they wanted Putin gone he wouldn't be already? They have the tech to keep him pinpointed at all times.
Killing the head of state is considered a threat to the nation.
Putin has basically purged anyone who isn't from the old KGB from any positions of power. And they all pretty much are on board with his policies and would continue them. Some even more aggressively.
for 2., not trying to be argumentative (crazy I know) but why do you think that? Size? Influence? Historical authority?
You said it was in the constitution.
Also "when the very existence of the state is put under threat”"
His death does not put the state under threat. I mean he could say it does but that would put him in the realm of addict and some of the other lads here.
I wouldn't look for a Poutine death to fix anything. I would hope however that whoever takes over would use it as an excuse to give up on Ukraine. Poutines, war, not the new guy's circus, not the new guys monkeys.
Well that would be my hope, but often my hopes and dreams get crushed so...
