So, I've read this thread and man....That first post is something else...
But, let's look at a few things: First, Russia's perceived military might is more akin to a paper tiger. In the 11 or so months of this conflict, we've seen:
- Russia's inability to sustain an offensive.
- Russia's horrible leadership, resulting in how many Generals being replaced?
- Russian troops being poorly trained and having low to no morale.
- Russia's vaunted armour superiority...which was being destroyed or captured at a crazy pace.
- Russia's so-called next-generation weapons not being exactly ready for prime time, or in pathetically low numbers.
- Russian intelligence failures, including the belief that Ukrainians would greet them as liberators or resistance fold really quickly.
- Russia not believing the western allies would support Ukraine with weapons, intelligence and money.
- Western Europe's ability to pivot and find alternative energy sources that have bypassed much of Russia's offerings.
Now, I'm not going to say Ukraine is going to win this conflict by kicking Russia out of its territory and re-capturing Crimea. But, I think it is possible. Russia has a history of taking massive casualties in war, and just grinding down their enemies. Will the Russian public freak out when they see the true carnage of its military forces? Unlikely...but possible.
What we should all take away from this is that this support of Ukraine is partly done to fuck Russia up, but also a warning to China to not fuck around and find out what would happen if they tried to take Taiwan. I'm positive that Xi Jinping is watching how the US and Europe swung into action so quickly and in lockstep. If the west just allowed Russia to do what it pleased, China might have thought that they could do that as well. First with Taiwan, maybe the Indian parts of the Himalayas next. This Russian clusterfuck must give them pause. After all, Russia is having issues invading a country that's on its land border....China would have to cross the Taiwan Straight, which is about 160 KM away...That's a much bigger challenge...
So, war sucks. It is horrible for the people of Ukraine to face daily death and destruction from an invading force. But, by actively stopping this aggression, the world could be spared a larger conflict.
Now, about nukes...I cannot see Putin using them at all. I mean, he wants to take Ukraine, not a radioactive wasteland. And, if he took the nuclear option, his life is over. If the sanctions against Russia are strict now....imagine what would happen after that. The only caveat to that is if Ukraine decides to invade Russia...which I cannot imagine happening for multiple reasons.