Time to Short Stocks?

escortsxxx

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Jul 15, 2004
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It was time a year ago.
Those who went short in the stock market before the Great Crash of 1929, essentially betting that the market would decrease in value, would have made a profit when the market crashed. However, many short sellers were also heavily leveraged, meaning they borrowed money to make their trades, and as the market continued to decline they were forced to close their positions, leading to significant losses. Additionally, many investors who had shorted the market were also heavily invested in the stock market through long positions, so they suffered losses on both fronts.

In a stable market, short sellers can potentially make profits by correctly predicting that a stock's or market's value will decrease. However, it is important to note that short selling is considered a higher risk strategy, as there is theoretically no limit to how high the stock's value can increase, while the potential loss is limited to the value of the stock. Additionally, in a stable market, regulatory authorities may put restrictions on short selling to prevent market manipulation or to stabilize the market during times of stress.

In a volatile market like the one leading to the Great Crash of 1929, short sellers may have found it difficult to close their positions as the market continued to decline, leading to significant losses. Additionally, some countries and exchanges may have implemented regulations that prohibit or restrict short selling during market downturns.

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I was always My future forecasting is for hire. I can only give you probabilities ... But make note of 2024 and china . Supply chain supply chain supply chain.
 

sprite09

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Aug 10, 2020
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don't short, fool ...as somebody said , you missed the boat

risk reward isn't there for a retail investor ...better off just to dollar cost average and waitn
 

Carvher

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Apr 13, 2010
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Too much waiting to get back in right now, you can feel it. Just waiting for that announced pause that didn't come but n100 still shot up (better early than late).

It seems that the market is not pricing in a bad recession. Seems to be pricing in a mild or not one at all.
 

John_Jacob

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Nov 23, 2022
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No. I'm mostly blue chip stocks for the dividend income and have no interest in calls/puts for shorting.

I've been expecting the stock market to go below 20% for about 4 months now and I'm still waiting.

I'm really, really hoping for a good crash summer time. It could be one of those generational buying opportunities that we haven't had since 2009/2010. It's been that long.
 
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sprite09

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-if you miss the best days in the market, your performance suffers greatly over time

thus

-it's time in the market, not timing the market
 
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stinkynuts

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No. I'm mostly blue chip stocks for the dividend income and have no interest in calls/puts for shorting.

I've been expecting the stock market to go below 20% for about 4 months now and I'm still waiting.

I'm really, really hoping for a good crash summer time. It could be one of those generational buying opportunities that we haven't had since 2009/2010. It's been that long.
I would get back in now. If you wait until the summer, you will have missed the majority of the rally, most likely. Impossible to time the market.

The market is alaways forward looking. Inflation is about to plummet, the Fed is going go slash rates, and there will be more money being spent, propping up the markets. The market knows this, and has begun to price this in, hence the rally.

China is also reopening, COVID is dying down, and the war in Ukraine looks to be reaching a stalemate ending, with possibilites of a peaceful resolution. Thus, oil prices have stabilized as well. Peak fear is over, and we are entering the recovery phase.

I am betting heavy on the QQQ, as it is down the most, and will rebound the strongest.
 
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John_Jacob

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Nov 23, 2022
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I would get back in now. If you wait until the summer, you will have missed the majority of the rally, most likely. Impossible to time the market.

The market is alaways forward looking. Inflation is about to plummet, the Fed is going go slash rates, and there will be more money being spent, propping up the markets. The market knows this, and has begun to price this in, hence the rally.

China is also reopening, COVID is dying down, and the war in Ukraine looks to be reaching a stalemate ending, with possibilites of a peaceful resolution. Thus, oil prices have stabilized as well. Peak fear is over, and we are entering the recovery phase.

I am betting heavy on the QQQ, as it is down the most, and will rebound the strongest.
There isn't anything to get back into as I didn't sell anything - as you say, impossible to time the market. Hoping for the inevitable crash (down 20% is normal) is just waiting for a great opportunity to purchase more of the same at lower prices and thus more dividend income later on.
 
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richaceg

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Feb 11, 2009
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I would get back in now. If you wait until the summer, you will have missed the majority of the rally, most likely. Impossible to time the market.

The market is alaways forward looking. Inflation is about to plummet, the Fed is going go slash rates, and there will be more money being spent, propping up the markets. The market knows this, and has begun to price this in, hence the rally.

China is also reopening, COVID is dying down, and the war in Ukraine looks to be reaching a stalemate ending, with possibilites of a peaceful resolution. Thus, oil prices have stabilized as well. Peak fear is over, and we are entering the recovery phase.

I am betting heavy on the QQQ, as it is down the most, and will rebound the strongest.
This week was entirely green money...WE're off to a great start this year...a lot of stocks are bouncing back..the only sector I won't touch right now is Cannabis...
 

richaceg

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There isn't anything to get back into as I didn't sell anything - as you say, impossible to time the market. Hoping for the inevitable crash (down 20% is normal) is just waiting for a great opportunity to purchase more of the same at lower prices and thus more dividend income later on.
I'm keeping an eye on GXE.TO they have like 10.40% dividend....@ $1.08 per stock...
 

sprite09

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Aug 10, 2020
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There isn't anything to get back into as I didn't sell anything - as you say, impossible to time the market. Hoping for the inevitable crash (down 20% is normal) is just waiting for a great opportunity to purchase more of the same at lower prices and thus more dividend income later on.
it was down 20 percent..last year but most people got scared as usual

if the market goes up , then drops 20 percent ...you may still buying at higher prices before the run up

thus, dollar cost avg and if you have a lump sum of cash, just invest it ...it's shown that this is a winning strategy since the market goes up over time

 

Carvher

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Apr 13, 2010
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There isn't anything to get back into as I didn't sell anything - as you say, impossible to time the market. Hoping for the inevitable crash (down 20% is normal) is just waiting for a great opportunity to purchase more of the same at lower prices and thus more dividend income later on.
I think your dividend stocks will go down as tech rallies. This will give you an opportunity to add at lower prices than today but if the tech rally stumbles and inflation gets stickier then your blue chip stuff should do fine. Your ok either way but just missing out on this tech rebound.
 

John_Jacob

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Nov 23, 2022
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I'm keeping an eye on GXE.TO they have like 10.40% dividend....@ $1.08 per stock...
I'm an investor, not a trader. This company may be good, who knows. To me a dividend like 10% is a red flag or companies like AQN who have recently cut theirs. I have NO desire to constantly watch the stock market to see when I need to sell something.
Stocks with dividend ranges of 4% to 6% and that I very rarely sell are more my speed.
 
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John_Jacob

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Nov 23, 2022
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I think your dividend stocks will go down as tech rallies. This will give you an opportunity to add at lower prices than today but if the tech rally stumbles and inflation gets stickier then your blue chip stuff should do fine. Your ok either way but just missing out on this tech rebound.
Yah, having been burnt by tech stocks (NT, RIM & the like), I don't invest in tech. They change too rapidly and I don't want to be constantly trading.

For the the dividend stocks, I'm investing them for income. I have no fxcks to give if their price goes up or goes down (which is better right) as long as the dividend keeps coming.
 

John_Jacob

Well-known member
Nov 23, 2022
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it was down 20 percent..last year but most people got scared as usual

if the market goes up , then drops 20 percent ...you may still buying at higher prices before the run up

thus, dollar cost avg and if you have a lump sum of cash, just invest it ...it's shown that this is a winning strategy since the market goes up over time

Yup, the best time to be is today. The 2nd best time is tomorrow. 80% of success is just showing up.
For 2022, I (~-5%) only did marginally better than the TSX ( -5.45%) but that is because I'm heavy on financial stocks. Long term averages are still in the range of 9% to 14% (depending on the account) compared to TSX of ~9% so I'm happy. Still really hoping for a crash though.
 

Carvher

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Apr 13, 2010
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Yah, having been burnt by tech stocks (NT, RIM & the like), I don't invest in tech. They change too rapidly and I don't want to be constantly trading.

For the the dividend stocks, I'm investing them for income. I have no fxcks to give if their price goes up or goes down (which is better right) as long as the dividend keeps coming.
I hear you.
 
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