Frankfooter's posts from 2015 show the IPCC's predictions of global warming were spectacularly wrong

[Frankfooter]

By the way, Franky, it's now a matter of public record that I have said the fact the Earth's temperature increased to 1ºC over the late 19th century proves absolutely nothing.

It's also a matter of record that I have repeatedly said the IPCC's predictions continue to be spectacularly wrong.

1) The 1ºC increase proves the IPCC projections correct from their 2006 projections, from a baseline temperature pre industrial revolution to the present day.
2) You just admitted their projections are correct (saying that we have 1ºC increase) then turned around to claim they are wrong. Total screwup failure.

All you've proven is that you are wrong on almost everything you post.
You couldn't calculate the range of increase.
You couldn't figure out how much warming has happened since 2006.
You couldn't figure out what the median projection from the IPCC was.

 

[Moviefan-2]

1) The 1ºC increase proves the IPCC projections correct from their 2006 projections to the present day.

Frankfooter is now claiming the Earth's temperature increased 1ºC over the past 15 years.

(I guess this means he now thinks the "pre-industrial age" refers to 2006.)

 

[Moviefan-2]

The didn't predict 6ºC for this century either.

Actually, they did. They predicted almost 6ºC under a "worst-case" scenario where emissions continue to rise.

Warming could be worst in 10,000 years

An international group of scientists has confirmed the worst fears of environmentalists: the Earth's atmosphere could soar by almost 6C by 2100 - a rise unprecedented in the past 10,000 years.

www.theguardian.com

In fact, man-made emissions have set world records in recent years, fulfilling the IPCC's "worst-case" scenario from 2001.

Greenhouse gas levels hit record high in 2020, UN reports - National | Globalnews.ca

The news came as the UN climate office warned that the world remains off target for meeting its goal of cutting emissions as part of international efforts to curb global warming.

bit.ly

For what it's worth, the median prediction of 4ºC this century is also spectacularly wrong at this point - unless Frankfooter has gone back to arguing that 0.15 x 10 = 4.

 

[Frankfooter]

Frankfooter is now claiming the Earth's temperature increased 1ºC over the past 15 years.

(I guess this means he now thinks the "pre-industrial age" refers to 2006.)

Sigh.

Here, because you are a pedantic troll, I'll explain it again.
The IPCC projected in 2006 that by around now we would be seeing about 1ºC total warming from before the industrial revolution.

As you noted, the planet was around 0.8ºC from pre industrial temps in 2006, the fact that we've now hit 1ºC in the 15 years since shows their projections to be accurate.
Despite the fact that you've admitted that we've warmed to 1ºC as the IPCC projected, you continue to claim that their projection is wrong.
This is amazingly bizarre and ridiculous, you are either trolling or you really just can't even figure out the basics of this argument.

 

[Frankfooter]

Actually, they did. They predicted almost 6ºC under a "worst-case" scenario where emissions continue to rise.

Thank you for admitting you picked the outside range and claimed it was the median projection.

For what it's worth, the median prediction of 4ºC this century is also spectacularly wrong at this point - unless Frankfooter has gone back to arguing that 0.15 x 10 = 4.

Please read the articles you post.
This one said we are on track for a 2.7ºC rise in temperature if we don't do something, not 4ºC.

More worryingly, emissions in 2030 are projected to be 16% higher than in 2010, based on formal pledges so far.

“Such an increase, unless changed quickly, may lead to a temperature rise of about 2.7C (4.9F) by the end of the century,” the U.N. said.

 

[Moviefan-2]

As you noted, the planet was around 0.8ºC from pre industrial temps in 2006, the fact that we've now hit 1ºC in the 15 years since shows their projections to be accurate.

It was actually in the range of 0.85ºC and probably closer to 0.9ºC if someone were to round it off.

So, the IPCC "projected" an increase of a little more than 0.1ºC over 15 years - the same thing that everyone predicted and which proves proving absolutely nothing.

The IPCC itself has admitted that much of the overall warming from the pre-industrial age to the present cannot be attributed to human activity.

 

[Frankfooter]

It was actually in the range of 0.85ºC and probably closer to 0.9ºC if someone were to round it off.

You are failing math again.
You added 0.2ºC to the 2006 temperature but not to the present temperature.
Your numbers are wrong.

 

[Moviefan-2]

Please read the articles you post.
This one said we are on track for a 2.7ºC rise in temperature if we don't do something, not 4ºC.

The compulsive liar does it again. The quotes he's citing are from a 2021 article, not the 2001 article where the IPCC made its predictions.

Warming could be worst in 10,000 years

An international group of scientists has confirmed the worst fears of environmentalists: the Earth's atmosphere could soar by almost 6C by 2100 - a rise unprecedented in the past 10,000 years.

www.theguardian.com

But you don't have to take my word for it. Here's Frankfooter's calculation that the median prediction was 4ºC (which he also said was "accurate.").

And with this being about 25 years from this prediction, 5.8ºC being the upper range of the IPCC projections (with 4ºC being the median of the worst case projection), and the temperature having gone up 1ºC, this makes the predictions once again look accurate and possibly accurate for their worst case scenario.


1ºC = 1/4 of 4ºC (median worst case scenario).
25 years (1990-2015) = 1/4 of the 100 year projection timeline.

And for fun.

http://www.theguardian.com/environm...odels-are-even-more-accurate-than-you-thought

 

[Frankfooter]

The compulsive liar does it again. The quotes he's citing are from a 2021 article, not the 2001 article where the IPCC made its predictions.

You called me a liar for posting a linked quote from the article you provided just because it proved you wrong?
Wow.

But you don't have to take my word for it. Here's Frankfooter's calculation that the median prediction was 4ºC (which he also said was "accurate.").

The IPCC's projections have changed since Paris and Cop26, from when that post was made.
Which shows that policies can have effects on what we do with the climate.
The same policies you think won't do anything.

You're doing really well, keep it up.

 

[Moviefan-2]

For those trying to keep track, Frankfooter now says the IPCC never made the predictions that he previously said "look accurate."

https://terb.cc/xenforo/threads/climate-change-kills-the-mood-economists-warn-of-less-sex-on-a-warmer-planet.543407/page-2#post-5394609

 

[Moviefan-2]

You called me a liar for posting a linked quote from the article you provided....

I called you a liar because you falsely asserted that the quote from the 2021 article referred to the predictions the IPCC made in 2001.

 

[Moviefan-2]

Nov. 10, 2015:

And with this being about 25 years from this prediction, 5.8ºC being the upper range of the IPCC projections (with 4ºC being the median of the worst case projection), and the temperature having gone up 1ºC, this makes the predictions once again look accurate and possibly accurate for their worst case scenario.


1ºC = 1/4 of 4ºC (median worst case scenario).
25 years (1990-2015) = 1/4 of the 100 year projection timeline.

Feb. 11, 2022:

This one said we are on track for a 2.7ºC rise in temperature if we don't do something, not 4ºC.

"Not 4ºC," indeed.

Frankfooter has confirmed what was in my original post - the IPCC did make those predictions in 2001 and so far they have been spectacularly wrong.

 

[Frankfooter]

I called you a liar because you falsely asserted that the quote from the 2021 article referred to the predictions the IPCC made in 2001.

I quoted (with link) the article you posted and you called me a liar for posting a quote.
That's really hilarious.

"Not 4ºC," indeed.
Frankfooter has confirmed what was in my original post - the IPCC's predictions from 2001 were spectacularly wrong.

OMG!

The IPCC has continually put out projections based on projected CO2 output, including different scenarios based on government actions.
Since the original article governments around the world have signed onto reducing CO2 output, which means that the IPCC projections for where we are headed have changed as it looks like CO2 levels are going to be lower.

That's good news.

This is not a fail, this is a success of government policy.
Changing the projections because we are doing something about the problem is not a 'failure' in modelling, its a success of policy.

The models are still the same if we put out the same amount of CO2. So if governments fail to do as they promised we could be looking at up to 4ºC, which is only a couple of degrees away from a thermal maximum.

You really are failing to comprehend even the basics here.

 

[Moviefan-2]

From the AP story from last year:

"Greenhouse gas concentrations hit a new record high last year and increased at a faster rate than the annual average for the last decade despite a temporary reduction during pandemic lockdowns, the World Meteorological Organization said in a report published Monday."

"More worryingly, emissions in 2030 are projected to be 16% higher than in 2010, based on formal pledges so far."

Greenhouse gas levels hit record high in 2020, UN reports - National | Globalnews.ca

The news came as the UN climate office warned that the world remains off target for meeting its goal of cutting emissions as part of international efforts to curb global warming.

globalnews.ca

That's good news.

If these are the emission levels that produced a 50% reduction in the worst-case temperature prediction, then the original predictions must have been total bullshit.

Certainly, such enormous changes in the predictions make it impossible to defend the predictions using the scientific method.

 

[Frankfooter]

From the AP story from last year:

"Greenhouse gas concentrations hit a new record high last year and increased at a faster rate than the annual average for the last decade despite a temporary reduction during pandemic lockdowns, the World Meteorological Organization said in a report published Monday."

"More worryingly, emissions in 2030 are projected to be 16% higher than in 2010, based on formal pledges so far."

Greenhouse gas levels hit record high in 2020, UN reports - National | Globalnews.ca

The news came as the UN climate office warned that the world remains off target for meeting its goal of cutting emissions as part of international efforts to curb global warming.

globalnews.ca

.



If these are the emission levels that produced a 50% reduction in the worst-case temperature prediction, then the original predictions must have been total bullshit.

Certainly, such enormous changes in the predictions make it impossible to defend the predictions using the scientific method.

You clearly just shouldn't be in this conversation, moviefan.
If you can't understand the basics, don't pretend you're an expert.

Try and read the article again and see if you can understand it, because its very clear right now you can't.

 

[Moviefan-2]

By the way, Scientific American reported last week that countries are backing away from their climate pledges.

Countries Back Away from Pledge to Update Climate Goals This Year

Ratcheting up national commitments to lower greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to limiting global warming

www.scientificamerican.com

 

[Moviefan-2]

If you can't understand the basics, don't pretend you're an expert.

Says the guy who had to be schooled on how to read NASA's graph of temperature anomalies.

 

[Moviefan-2]

From the AP story from Oct. 25, 2021:

"Greenhouse gas concentrations hit a new record high last year and increased at a faster rate than the annual average for the last decade despite a temporary reduction during pandemic lockdowns, the World Meteorological Organization said in a report published Monday."

"More worryingly, emissions in 2030 are projected to be 16% higher than in 2010, based on formal pledges so far."

Greenhouse gas levels hit record high in 2020, UN reports - National | Globalnews.ca

The news came as the UN climate office warned that the world remains off target for meeting its goal of cutting emissions as part of international efforts to curb global warming.

globalnews.ca

Frankfooter's characterization:

That's good news.

This is one of my new favourite Frankfooter quotes.

Definitely a keeper.

 

[Frankfooter]

Says the guy who had to be schooled on how to read NASA's graph of temperature anomalies.

You couldn't read the temperature difference from 2006 to now, moviefan.
That should be high school level.

 

[Frankfooter]

From the AP story from Oct. 25, 2021:

"Greenhouse gas concentrations hit a new record high last year and increased at a faster rate than the annual average for the last decade despite a temporary reduction during pandemic lockdowns, the World Meteorological Organization said in a report published Monday."

"More worryingly, emissions in 2030 are projected to be 16% higher than in 2010, based on formal pledges so far."

Greenhouse gas levels hit record high in 2020, UN reports - National | Globalnews.ca

The news came as the UN climate office warned that the world remains off target for meeting its goal of cutting emissions as part of international efforts to curb global warming.

globalnews.ca

Frankfooter's characterization:
This is one of my new favourite Frankfooter quotes.
Definitely a keeper.

So you don't think its good news that government pledges could bring warming down from 4ºC to 2.7ºC?

And now you're cheering for governments not meeting their commitments?
Even after you admitted the science is correct, the projections are correct and climate change is happening?