Having an old Big 8 CPA firm background (long ago Touche Ross before merged with Deloitte) and in the investment business for 40 years in my view:
I would never invest in a "dumb" index fund with no stock selection other than just because a company is in an index. What a dumb way to invest.
I look for managers of money with long-term track records of outperformance for the risk taken, i.e., Alpha vs. Beta in Modern Portfolio terms.
Over the long-term steady investing has always been beneficial without trying to time the market. Trying to do market timing is why most amateurs have worse results. Over the long-term, markets have average 9-10% annual returns just in dumb indexes. Much better returns with successful managers.
The key is to "participate yet protect" so you have less volatile assets if you need cash in a significant market downturn to avoid locking in market losses, as you wait for the rebound that always comes. The risk is the timing of a rebound.
I have studied technical analysis being the nerd I am and have concluded it is worthless. There is always an excuse when results differ from what was projected. Past performance does not assure future results, and that blows the argument for technical analysis or the crazy idea of Monte Carlo simulations.
Worst of all is the scam of ETFs. As Vanguard founder Boogle once said, ETFs are like giving an arsonist a match. In every flash crash, what loses the most are ETFs. Most are based on dumb index investing, and if the market maker (authorized participant) doesn't like the indicated value of the creation units, there will be no bid, or as in some cases, the bid will be $0.01 as in a few flash crashes.
The creation units based on the hidden costs create $millions of dollars in wealth transferred to Wall Street from Main Street.
Good article about the wealth transfer of ETFs from investors at
https://seekingalpha.com/article/42...saction-costs-make-billions-for-market-makers
