Reverie

In Trump win, Canada, U.S. deal saves NAFTA as trilateral pact

onthebottom

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This should be fun....

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-u-s-tariffs-remain-tough-issue-idUSKCN1MA0UJ

In Trump win, Canada, U.S. deal saves NAFTA as trilateral pact

OTTAWA/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States and Canada forged a last-gasp deal on Sunday to salvage NAFTA as a trilateral pact with Mexico, rescuing a three-country, $1.2 trillion open-trade zone that had been about to collapse after nearly a quarter century.

In a big victory for his agenda to shake-up an era of global free trade that many associate with the signing of NAFTA in 1994, President Donald Trump coerced Canada and Mexico to accept more restrictive commerce with their main export partner.

Trump’s primary objective in reworking NAFTA was to bring down U.S. trade deficits, a goal he has also pursued with China, by imposing hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs on imported goods from the Asian giant.

While the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) avoids tariffs, it will make it harder for global auto makers to build cars cheaply in Mexico and is aimed at bringing more jobs into the United States.

Since talks began more than a year ago, it was clear Canada and Mexico would have to make concessions in the face of Trump’s threats to tear up NAFTA and relief was palpable in both countries on Sunday that the deal was largely intact and had not fractured supply chains between weaker bilateral agreements.

“It’s a good day for Canada,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told reporters after a late-night cabinet meeting to discuss the deal, which triggered a jump in global financial markets.

In a joint statement, Canada and the United States said it would “result in freer markets, fairer trade and robust economic growth in our region”.

Negotiators worked frantically ahead of a midnight ET (0400 GMT) U.S. imposed deadline to settle differences, with both sides making concessions to seal the deal. The United States and Mexico had already clinched a bilateral agreement in August.

“It’s a great win for the president and a validation for his strategy in the area of international trade,” a senior administration official told reporters.

Trump has approved the deal with Canada, a source familiar with the decision said. U.S. officials intend to sign the agreement with Canada and Mexico at the end of November, after which it would be submitted to the U.S. Congress for approval, a senior U.S. official said.

FILE PHOTO: Dairy cows are seen on a farm in Saint-Valerien-de-Milton, southeast of Montreal, Quebec, Canada, August 30, 2018. REUTERS/Christinne Muschi/File Photo
COST FOR CANADA

The deal will preserve a trade dispute settlement mechanism that Canada fought hard to maintain to protect its lumber industry and other sectors from U.S. anti-dumping tariffs, U.S. and Canadian officials said.

But it came at a cost.

Canada has agreed to provide U.S. dairy farmers access to about 3.5 percent of its approximately $16 billion annual domestic dairy market. Although Canadian sources said its government was prepared to offer compensation, dairy farmers reacted angrily.

“We fail to see how this deal can be good for the 220,000 Canadian families that depend on dairy for their livelihood.” ************ Lampron, president of Dairy Farmers of Canada, said in a statement.

“This has happened, despite assurances that our government would not sign a bad deal for Canadians.”

The deal also requires a higher proportion of the parts in a car to be made in areas of North America paying at least $16 an hour, a rule aimed at shifting jobs from Mexico.

Canada and Mexico each agreed to a quota of 2.6 million passenger vehicles exported to the United States in the event that Trump imposes 25 percent global autos tariffs on national security grounds.

The quota would allow for significant growth in tariff-free automotive exports from Canada above current production levels of about 2 million units, safeguarding Canadian plants. It is also well above the 1.8 million cars and SUVs Mexico sent north last year.

But the deal failed to resolve U.S. tariffs on Canada’s steel and aluminum exports.

The Trump administration had threatened to proceed with a Mexico-only trade pact as U.S. talks with Canada foundered.

“It’s a good night for Mexico, and for North America,” Mexican Foreign Secretary Luis Videgaray said.

The news delighted financial markets that had fretted for months about the potential economic damage if NAFTA blew up.

U.S. stock index futures rose, with S&P 500 Index e-mini futures up more than 0.5 percent, suggesting the benchmark index would open near a record on Monday.

The Canadian dollar surged to its highest since May against the U.S. dollar, gaining around 0.5 percent. The Mexican peso gained 0.8 percent to its highest against the greenback since early August.[MKTS/GLOB]

“Though markets were already anticipating an agreement, one source of worry will be swept away if a deal is made,” Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo, said.

“That will lead to a rise in trust in the U.S. economy, so it’s easy for risk sentiment to improve.”
 

nottyboi

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Its a pretty good deal for Canada IMHO, even with the 2.7M cap on car exports, that is HUGE growth. That means Euros can start building cars in Canada for EU and USA becausue we have CETA and NAFTA. I think the concessions are small, and there are other barriers that can be raised to prevent US dairy from hurting our industry. I really think its not that far off from what Canada wanted. The only shitty thing is no protection from My America but we can apply Buy Canada as well ,and have in the past,.
 

danmand

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It is pretty laughable.

Canada and Mexico wanted to preserve Nafta with a few changes. Trump wanted a completely new trade deal.

Now Trump won, because the new trade deal is Nafta with a few changes. LOL

Are you tired of winning yet?
 

saxon

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Its a pretty good deal for Canada IMHO, even with the 2.7M cap on car exports, that is HUGE growth. That means Euros can start building cars in Canada for EU and USA becausue we have CETA and NAFTA. I think the concessions are small, and there are other barriers that can be raised to prevent US dairy from hurting our industry. I really think its not that far off from what Canada wanted. The only shitty thing is no protection from My America but we can apply Buy Canada as well ,and have in the past,.
Trudeau failed to get Trump to drop the tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel, so that is still going to hurt.
 

essguy_

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First of all the Steel and Aluminum tariffs are outside the scope of a trade deal because they are section 232 tariffs (so come under National Security - an area with complete Executive control by the President). So anybody expecting language to restrict the power of a President to enact something due to National Security concerns was a little off the mark. Trump IS abusing this section by applying National Security tariffs on the U.S.'s longest and most loyal ally - but that's up to Congress to remove this power OR make it such that any use of section 232 requires Congressional approval.

As for Trump "winning". Well, he was able to get a new name to replace NAFTA. I guess that's worth something (except for the Marine Corp). I would have gone with CANAMEX or AMEXCAN or something like that. Anyway a pretty stupid change - but it does allow Trump to fool his gullible base into believing he made some real changes. Other than that there is dairy as the other headline change. Not sure how many here took a quick look but the dairy concessions amount to allowing the U.S. to have 3.75% market share of our dairy market before quotas and tariffs kick in. 3.75% of a something like a $16 bln market for a relationship that trades over a $Trillion a year. In other words BIG FUCKING DEAL. Even funnier is that Canada had already offered 3.25% in the TPP, which Trump walked away from. So all of his histrionics on Dairy was for an additional 0.5% more than already offered of a $16 bln market or.... wait for it...... $80 mln. LOL! In return, Canada got Chap 19 dispute resolution retained, 16 year deal with 6 year reviews to extend, higher hourly wage content (Mexico's deal, so Canada benefits automatically), and more.

So in other words to Trump and his foolish and gullible fans the difference between NAFTA (aka the WORST deal in US History) and USMCA (aka the BEST deal in US History) is a name change and access to Canadian dairy markets which represents about $80 mln more than what was offered in TPP.
 

danmand

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Are you tired of winning yet?
 

toguy5252

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The PGOTUS may be the worst negotiator in history. He created a problem and then claims victory in solving the problem he created. Here are the major changes:

It will require 75 percent of auto components to be built in North America, up from 62.5 percent. Helps Canada and US
Forty to 45 percent of auto components will have to be made by laborers making at least $16 an hour. Helps Canada and US
In a concession to Mexican and Canadian business, the deal largely exempts passenger vehicles, pickup trucks and auto parts from possible Trump administration tariffs. Helps Mexico and Canada
U.S. farmers are getting slightly more access to Canadian dairy markets. Slightly more than Canada had
already agreed to in TPP

Dispute resolution provisions remain
No sunset provision

But as someone mentioned he did manage to get a new name so at least he can say he got a new agreement.

Rgese were tweeks at best and everyone agreed that NAFTA had to be modernized. In the course of getting these minor adjustments he created much more bad will toward the US by the rest of the western world and managed to come off looking like a bully and a clown
 

saxon

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Canadian dairy farmers are furious as is all 3 parties vying for Quebec provincial elections. No matter who wins the provincial election in Quebec all 3 parties have vowed to defy the agreement and stir up as much shit as they can.
 

nottyboi

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Trudeau failed to get Trump to drop the tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel, so that is still going to hurt.
That will be reversed in the not to distant future. Canada needs to control steel transshipment. So when Canadian quotas on steel from China and other 3rd world nations go into place, the US quotas will drop.
 

essguy_

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Canadian dairy farmers are furious as is all 3 parties vying for Quebec provincial elections. No matter who wins the provincial election in Quebec all 3 parties have vowed to defy the agreement and stir up as much shit as they can.
Interesting. The stirring up shit part is easy. But how do you suppose they plan to defy the agreement? Block the border? Hijack a US milk tanker? I bet a minority realize how little was given up with dairy. 3.75% of the market (which is only 0.5% higher than was promised under the TPP). Would they rather have supply management turfed completely? I laugh when I think of how much Trump kept talking about dairy droning on and on and on and on about the 300% tariffs - in the grand scheme of Canada/US trade, dairy amounts to a tiny zit
 

wigglee

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Trudeau appears to have done a good job here, though he should not sign this until the bullshit national security tariff on steel is dropped (which I assume it will be)..........not bad for Junior McHairdo, eh Terb altrighters?
 

Bud Plug

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Trudeau appears to have done a good job here, though he should not sign this until the bullshit national security tariff on steel is dropped (which I assume it will be)..........not bad for Junior McHairdo, eh Terb altrighters?
He did as well as any other actor who was given a script, flubbed his lines with ad libs, tripped up the other actors, and then showed up at curtain call to take the biggest bow of all.
 

nottyboi

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Trudeau appears to have done a good job here, though he should not sign this until the bullshit national security tariff on steel is dropped (which I assume it will be)..........not bad for Junior McHairdo, eh Terb altrighters?
Yup CPTPP, CETA and now USMCA not bad.
 

Promo

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Promo

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He did as well as any other actor who was given a script, flubbed his lines with ad libs, tripped up the other actors, and then showed up at curtain call to take the biggest bow of all.
Classic Trudeau Deranged Syndrome (TDS). Phil McNasty can help you with that.
 

mandrill

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He did as well as any other actor who was given a script, flubbed his lines with ad libs, tripped up the other actors, and then showed up at curtain call to take the biggest bow of all.

All's well that ends well, Pluggy. Sounds like all the gloom and doom that the cowardly alt righties and CPC traitors were weeping was unfounded.

I think Justin just came of age. He took on the challenge. Didn't cave in. And came out on top. Sort of like a NAFTA Top Gun or Star Wars sequel.

He did pretty well with that Prince Mohammed asshole too. Just stared that Saudi jerk down until he backed away with his tail between his burka.

Betcha Scheer's pretty embarrassed today. Did the po-faced little fucker even show up in the House?? I'm guessing no. Back in the day, he would have been tarred and feathered by the constituents. Or worse. I bet Justin just smiles at him the next time that they're both in the House and Scheer can't meet his eye. Sad.

Ready. Fire. Aim. The motto of the CPC.
 

Frankfooter

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Trudeau appears to have done a good job here, though he should not sign this until the bullshit national security tariff on steel is dropped (which I assume it will be)..........not bad for Junior McHairdo, eh Terb altrighters?
The only big price might have been clause 32, which stipulates that Canada can't sign into any other trade agreements without telling the US or getting their approval.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/canada-usmca-1.4845494
 

bver_hunter

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Trump wanted the Supply Management System to be abolished as far as the Dairy Industry was concerned. He ranted and raved about the 300% tariffs that were too high and said that he wanted free trade with no tariffs as far as the Dairy Industry was concerned. Canada's stubbornness right up to the end managed to still keep it in place despite Baby Scheer being pissed off that the deadline was approaching and no deal being signed. Even the Right wingers on this board were predicting doomsday for Canada. This was a win for Canada as the 300% tariffs are still in place and overall only a 0.5% more of the Dairy market has been opened - 3.6% in total of the whole dairy Industry. There had to be a compromise, as they are negotiating with a Trumptard that really wanted to screw Canada. His cult followers always cheer for that idiot in spite of his horrible trade wars with several nations including their closest allies. There will be a subsidy for the Dairy Farmers to compensate for their loss, just as the Americans subsidize their own Dairy industries.

When even the former Conservative prime minister Brian Mulroney issued a statement calling the agreement "a highly significant achievement for Canada" that will benefit all three countries, then it must be a good deal. Baby Scheer will never understand the reality of being on the International Stage. No auto tariffs is great for the Canadian Auto Sector.
 

Conil

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This should be fun....

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-u-s-tariffs-remain-tough-issue-idUSKCN1MA0UJ

In Trump win, Canada, U.S. deal saves NAFTA as trilateral pact
It is a Trump win and Canada took a hit.

Trump gets trade win with new NAFTA deal

Trade ministers from the U.S., Mexico and Canada have reached a deal to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement, the Trump administration announced late Sunday night.

The new pact, which is being called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, is a major step toward completing one of Trump’s signature campaign promises and gives the president a concrete policy win to tout on the campaign trail this fall. It also sets the stage for what is sure to be a high-stakes fight to get the agreement passed by Congress before it can become law.

The Trump administration formally notified Congress at the end of August of its plans to sign a new pact and faced a deadline of the end of September to provide a draft of the agreement.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in late August that officials are planning to sign with their Canadian and Mexican counterparts by the end of November — a date that would also satisfy Mexico, which is eager to have current President Enrique Peña Nieto sign the deal before his successor takes over December 1.

“It’s a great win for the president and a validation for his strategy in the area of international trade,” a senior administration official said on a call with reporters late Sunday.

People briefed on the outlines of a revamped deal described changes in language governing dairy imports, dispute resolution between countries, limits on online shopping that can be done tax-free, and limits on the U.S. threat of auto tariffs.

“It’s a good day for Canada,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said as he left the office late Sunday night. He said he would save other comments for an official announcement on Monday.

A formal vote in Congress won’t be held until 2019, and it is still an open question whether lawmakers — including members of the president’s own party who have often clashed with him on trade — will fall in line to support the deal.
Republicans are expected to pay close attention to the final details regarding dispute settlement and intellectual property issues, while Democrats will likely be looking for stricter labor and environmental standards.

Lawmakers from both parties, along with powerful business and industry groups, are also examining whether new provisions, such as stricter automotive rules, may end up making life more difficult for domestic companies rather than easier.

A senior administration official highlighted the “great result” on dairy issues that was achieved. The pact opens up the Canadian dairy market to U.S. exports at a level higher than the 3.25 percent market share the Obama administration negotiated under the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

The official also said that Canada agreed to eliminate a recent milk-ingredient pricing program that U.S. farmers complained has dried up demand for their exports of the product.

In exchange, Canada was able to preserve dispute settlement language. Canada has historically insisted on an international panel to judge whether the U.S. improperly uses duties as a commercial weapon.

Canada also agreed to an “accommodation” to its auto exports in response to tariffs Trump is expected to impose on vehicle imports for national security reasons, the senior administration official said. That arrangement will likely involve Canada agreeing to a side deal that would restrict its auto exports to a level well above the current volume of trade that flows south of the border, sources close to the talks said.

Lighthizer had hoped to reach an agreement by the end of 2017, a timeline that was extended until the end of March. The three nations failed to make that deadline but have been meeting almost continuously in Washington since as they sought to reach compromises on issues that have been both technically and politically challenging for all three countries.

Now, depending on the outcome of November’s midterm elections, control of the House of Representatives may well turn over to Democrats, who may have little incentive to work with a president from the opposite party to ratify a deal that they may not like.

One strategy that circulated earlier this year was a plan to force a vote by withdrawing from the existing NAFTA agreement before the new one takes effect — thus forcing members of Congress to choose between the renegotiated deal or no deal at all.

Trump indicated last month that he would pursue such tactics, telling reporters in the Oval Office that he would “be terminating the existing deal and going into this deal.”

Several prominent lawmakers, however, expressed cautious optimism with the new pact.

“Maintaining a trilateral North American deal is an important prerequisite to preserving and extending those gains and the Trump administration has achieved that goal,” said Senator Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), chairman of the Senate finance committee. “I look forward to reviewing this deal to confirm it meets the high standards of Trade Promotion Authority.”

Under the TPA, Congress will take a straight up-or-down vote without amendments. Those rules also have a series of other steps that also must be followed before the deal can be passed.

Even without congressional approval, having the preliminary deal in hand will give the administration and vulnerable Republicans up for reelection at least the skeleton of a policy achievement to use on the trail.

Officials have said that changes made to automotive rules to increase the amount of content that must be sourced from within NAFTA countries should play well in manufacturing states concerned about the offshoring of jobs.

Meanwhile, leading congressional Democrats say they’re not yet convinced that the new deal represents a significant shift from past trade policies that have rarely earned their support.

“The bar for supporting a new NAFTA will be high,” said Representative Richard Neal (D-Mass.), the ranking member on the House ways and means committee.

Democrats and their backers in labor unions and environment groups will be looking for a deal they feel can be adequately enforced in terms of upholding worker rights and environmental protections.

Senator Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said the ability of the deal to enforce those provisions will be a “crucial test” for a new agreement.

The country’s largest organized labor group also stressed that it will be studying the labor language closely.

“The text we have reviewed, even before the confirmation that Canada will remain part of NAFTA, affirms that too many details still need to be worked out before working people make a final judgment on a deal,” AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka said in a statement.

It remains unclear at this point what the preliminary deal means for the steel and aluminum tariffs the Trump administration has put in place as well as the retaliatory duties Canada and Mexico imposed. Many industry sources and others close to the talks have long expected that reaching a deal would lead the U.S. to lift the tariffs, a move that would lead Canada and Mexico to follow suit.

A senior U.S. administration official said a possible exemption for Canada remains on a separate track from the broader trade negotiations and there was no agreement yet on that issue.

Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo said in late August that those tariffs — as well as Mexico’s retaliatory duties on $3 billion in U.S. products like agricultural goods — would be enforced until the countries are closer to signing an agreement later this year.

https://www.politico.eu/article/us-...ng-trump-crucial-trade-win-mexico-lighthizer/
 

HungSowel

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Trump alienates US allies, disrupts commerce, and breaks agreements for that small of a vanity win.
 
Ashley Madison
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