real estate..... is it true??

[Smallcock]

Was talking with my real estate agent. One of her clients sold their home just north of Toronto for $2.1 million and bought a smaller property in the last couple months of 2017. They arranged for a bridge loan since the closing of the home they bought was before the closing of the sold home. Well, the buyers of their property backed out of the deal and are now being sued. Now their lender is asking for the bridge loan to be paid out. They have no choice but to arrange private financing with a huge fee and high rate. Worse yet, the property that sold for $2.1 million is now listed for $300,000 less with no offers. My agent thinks they will only get around $1.6 million at most now. Imagine losing $500,000 and having to pay huge fees. Sad, very sad.

They will be able to recover that $500k from suing the buyers that backed out. A pain in the ass though. Always sell before buying.

 

[Butler1000]

They will be able to recover that $500k from suing the buyers that backed out. A pain in the ass though. Always sell before buying.

When I cash out and retire early to travel thankfully this won't be an issue.

Looking forward to a period of homelessness.......and then buying cheaply out of province once the wanderlust is gone.

 

[Samranchoi]

They will be able to recover that $500k from suing the buyers that backed out. A pain in the ass though. Always sell before buying.

They did sell before (but did not close) before buying, so advice should be close before you buy.

 

[NiceToMeetYou]

The best strategy right now is to wait for another 3 to 5 years before buying any real estate in the GTA. So letting the prices go down slowly month over month and year over year. The market is correcting itself. Sorry for the folks who jumped into buying the real estates in the past few years because they are the ones who will lose the most financially.

It likes in the stock markets, there are people who make and lose money from the transactions. Because the oil prices have climbed up nicely in the past six months, I believe real estates in Alberta are the go to places for the investors.

 

[Smallcock]

Right, and if you want to cash out at the top and you own a condo, the time is now. Condo prices keep going higher and it's just a matter of time before they become prohibitively expensive. At current prices, investing in condos for rental income doesn't work, even with soaring rental prices. And half of new condos are being bought by 'investors'...

 

[wonkyknee]

Interest rates in Canada may go up another 1/2 percent, that might drop prices even further. That should be done over the next 12 months. After that we may see decreases again.....

 

[faveone]

Interest rates in Canada may go up another 1/2 percent, that might drop prices even further. That should be done over the next 12 months. After that we may see decreases again.....

'may go up' ? check the news and you'll find some chartered banks already raised the rates this week!

I remember my first mortgage in 1989 went from 14.5% to 12.9% when it renewed and I thought ' WOO HOO!!!!!!!!' LOL !!

Expect it to go no where but up for the next few years. slowly.

 

[wonkyknee]

'may go up' ? check the news and you'll find some chartered banks already raised the rates this week!

I remember my first mortgage in 1989 went from 14.5% to 12.9% when it renewed and I thought ' WOO HOO!!!!!!!!' LOL !!

Expect it to go no where but up for the next few years. slowly.

nah rates will go up again a couple of times. And I'm talking the government increases. But another 2 quarter rate hikes will be pretty onerous on many. Couple up that with tax increases and guess what the cost of gas just went up recently by about $15/tank. Also with this real estate slowdown in sales, there are a lot of people with lowered incomes. Time will tell.....

 

[motion]

Makes me think of selling the income properties and move onto something else. Being a landlord is a PITA anyway. Think of all the fun that could be had with all that unleashed hobby money :decision:

 

[Smallcock]

Realtors, developers brace for crash

In April, just 43% of pre-sale condos offered in Metro Vancouver sold, compared to 94% in January, 83% in February and 63% in March, said Cameron McNeill, a partner in MLA Canada, the real estate marketing firm that hosted the Pre-Sale Pulse seminar at Olympic Village.

https://biv.com/article/2018/05/realtors-developers-brace-crash

Uh-oh... how long before this happens in Toronto...

and

http://www.westerninvestor.com/news...sing-starts-roar-as-sales-go-quiet-1.23263369

 

[Kadie Lux]

I really want to buy a small house either in Hamilton, Grimsby, St Catharines or even Guelph.

It sucks that you need an actual "job" to buy a house. I dont understand why you cant get a house if you have the down payment.

And these sky rocketing house prices need to stop!!

 

[HOLLYWOODG]

https://biv.com/article/2018/05/realtors-developers-brace-crash

Uh-oh... how long before this happens in Toronto...

and

http://www.westerninvestor.com/news...sing-starts-roar-as-sales-go-quiet-1.23263369

It will never happen in Toronto. We are the unbreakable and not comparable to the rest of Canada's major cities!!!!

 

[wonkyknee]

It will never happen in Toronto. We are the unbreakable and not comparable to the rest of Canada's major cities!!!!

Sounds like the exact sentiment one would hear at the peak of a bubble.

Heard the same sort of comments from other major bubble cities in the world.

 

[oil&gas]

I really want to buy a small house either in Hamilton, Grimsby, St Catharines or even Guelph.

When I looked into the housing market about 4 years ago
outside GTA prices in Guelph were already catching up with Toronto.
Kitchener/Waterloo were pretty much as pricey. I was somewhat
tempted to buy a residence in Cambridge or London. I could have
bought a decent town house in London at a price near $150k back
then. Don't know what the housing price parity is like now but I've
pretty much given up hope of spending my retirement years
in a property I own in GTA. I now expect to have to look as
far as Thunderbay to find an affordable retirement home.

 

[einar]

Kadie, you should talk to a mortgage broker you feel comfortable with. He or she could find you a mortgage if you have a down payment and steady self-employment income. If your income is not showing up on your tax returns, it might be trickier. But you could probably arrange a private mortgage directly from a seller.

You should speak to a financial advisor. I'm sure other indy escorts could give you a name or two.

Cheers,
Einar

 

[einar]

I really want to buy a small house either in Hamilton, Grimsby, St Catharines or even Guelph.

It sucks that you need an actual "job" to buy a house. I dont understand why you cant get a house if you have the down payment.

And these sky rocketing house prices need to stop!!

Kadie, you should talk to a mortgage broker you feel comfortable with. He or she could find you a mortgage if you have a decent down payment and steady self-employment income. If your income is not showing up on your tax returns, of course, it might be trickier. But you could perhaps arrange a private mortgage directly from a seller.

You should speak to a financial advisor or a real estate lawyer. I'm sure other indy escorts could give you a name or two.

Cheers,
Einar

 

[Smallcock]

I really want to buy a small house either in Hamilton, Grimsby, St Catharines or even Guelph.

It sucks that you need an actual "job" to buy a house. I dont understand why you cant get a house if you have the down payment.

And these sky rocketing house prices need to stop!!

You can buy a house without an actual "job" but you will have to pay a much higher interest rate to offset the higher risk to the lender. Some alternative lenders and private lenders offer this.

If you have a significant down payment (say 30% or more of the property value), you may be able to get a better rate.

 

[Smallcock]

It will never happen in Toronto. We are the unbreakable and not comparable to the rest of Canada's major cities!!!!

Hmmm that sounds familiar to what was said in 1988 thru 1990:
https://twitter.com/ExtraGuac4Me/status/980578764621934594

Toronto is a world class city and if you think there will be a major correction because price gains have been excessive in relation to income growth, you will be disappointed – CIBC 1990

https://twitter.com/ExtraGuac4Me/status/992154281934389248

Hefty investments from “Asian business people”, increased immigration, limited supply, and domestic investment will stem the tide of weakening housing markets next year - Royal LePage, November 15, 1989

https://twitter.com/ExtraGuac4Me/status/987441124376653824

“Young people must lower their expectations or move out of Toronto if they want to buy a home” - Chuck McIlravey, VP of Confederation Trust, Dec. 23, 1989

Confederation Trust was forcibly shut down 5 years later after sustaining heavy mortgage losses.

https://twitter.com/ExtraGuac4Me/status/974590230832414721

What happened to those sketchy financial institutions that financed Toronto’s last real-estate boom? Here is an old newspaper ad from the peak of the last boom featuring 12 of them. Hint: they batted .500

https://twitter.com/ExtraGuac4Me/status/972281032417337346

“Many of the people who suffered losses during the real-estate slump of the past two years stretched themselves too thin and purchased properties they could not afford” - Brad Lamb, Dec 21, 1991

One thing you should take note of if you're in the real estate game, is the concept of "regression to the mean" which is defined by the straight red line on this 2016 graph: https://s-i.huffpost.com/gen/5026956/original.jpg

Let me put it another way. When Sly Stallone hosts a Real Estate seminar in your city telling you how to make it rich, complete with a Pitbull concert, you know something's amiss. A segment of the market is intoxicated on exuberance and irrationality. https://torontolife.com/city/busine...l-sylvester-stallone-real-estate-wealth-expo/

 

[Smallcock]

The market has crashed and we're in the Denial stage of a bubble. See https://static1.squarespace.com/sta...e1e848814a8c2e7ee/1493327932317/?format=1500w

April New home and new condo sales in GTA worst in 20 years:
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/05/23/toronto-new-home-sales_a_23441999/
April resale in GTA worst since 2009:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ing-sales-are-off-to-weakest-start-since-2009

In VanCity, real estate agents and developers are bracing for a crash due to the collapse of new home sales:
https://biv.com/article/2018/05/realtors-developers-brace-crash
Condo flipping in VanCity is slowing dramatically:
https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/998990131653586944
Vancouver's Empty Home Tax brings in millions:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/vancouver-s-empty-home-tax-brings-in-millions~1378674

Lending growth grinding to a halt:
https://dir.richardsongmp.com/docum...nada.pdf/b05e1aab-4212-47c2-88a8-b2d10fdad953
CIBC expects new mortgages to halve in second half as rules bite
http://business.financialpost.com/n...et-income-up-nearly-25-per-cent-from-year-ago
It's taking longer to sell a home:
https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/status/994543126285975552

We're reversing course on the things that created the bubble:

1) Interest rates are increasing rather than decreasing and the B20 Stress Test has practically pushed out new borrowers/buyers
2) Oil prices are increasing raising the value loonie, which is opposite to the 2014 oil crash which saw the loonie tank
3) Foreign buyer's tax and China's capital controls putting a stop on foreign money into our real estate markets
4) Speculation is declining. 50% of new condos are sold to speculators and 50% of them cannot cover mortgage payments

In the backdrop we have:
a) Highest mortgage debt on record (for both bank and private lenders)
b) Highest consumer debt on record
c) Highest school debt on record
d) Half of Torontonians rent and half of them can barely afford it: https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-...t-says-half-toronto-paying-unaffordable-rent/
e) Record HELOC and reverse mortgages

Even developers are slowing down as prices for land acquisition are too high: http://urbantoronto.ca/news/2018/05/guest-column-gta-land-sales-redevelopment-take-turn

The impact of a declining real estate market on the economy? https://www.macleans.ca/economy/how-real-estate-feeds-the-canadian-economy/

Liquid cash is king and becoming more valuable by the day.

 

[Smallcock]

Macquarie thinks housing will drag Canada into a recession as bad as the financial crisis in two years — and that’s the best-case scenario

http://business.financialpost.com/n...liance-on-housing-fuels-canada-recession-call

Roughly half of all economic weakness during recessions since the Second World War is tied to fluctuations in residential investment, he calculates, and the extent to which Canadian output and employment are currently reliant on this is “unprecedented.”

Macquaire’s best-case scenario is that the fallout, starting in 2020, will be as bad for Canada as the 2008-09 financial crisis. Worst case: The unemployment rate will spike by more than any recession since the Great Depression.

With housing slowing down (price declining, sales volume declining, lending volume declining) more than seen in a decade, interest rates increasing, and a record number of pre-sale condo buildings coming to completion over the next couple of years, I'd take this outlook seriously.