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Maple Leafs 2017 Off Season Moves

Kilgore Trout

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The third year of the Marleau contract is probably get rid able by the Leafs should Marleau slow down in productivity in his late thirties.
His 3rd year has bonus pay out of 3 million and base salary of 1.25 million.

Likely the 3 million in bonus money is paid out around labour day heading into his last season.
After that a team would owe him 1.25 million while taking a cap hit of 6.25 million. In the past, deals like that have been very attractive to small market or re building teams trying to get to cap floor.
Even though Marleau has a no trade deal things might still be worked out to get him to waive it if he can't play the way he used to.
 

gcostanza

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I really like the Marleau acquisition. Very good durable player and someone that the younger players can learn from. As well, coming to a young dynamic team, his game may even be better than it was in San Jose the past couple of years.

The issue will be the cap space available after the 2018/2019 season. Lupuls cap hit of $5.25 million will disappear after the 2017/2018 season but that will ultimately go towards Nylanders salary. JVR, Bozak and Komarov will no longer be part of the Leafs after 2017/2018 and Hortons cap hit can be designated LTIR so the Leafs will have approx $17 million there. Between Marner and Matthews, they will most likely make that between them, if not a little more after the 2018/2019 season. This is where it will get tricky for the Leafs. They have will have a lot tied up financially with Nylander, Marleau, Matthews, Marner and Kadri (say approx $33 million), $6 million for goaltenders and $9.5 million for Reilly and Zaitsev. That is approx $50 million for 9 players plus what the Leafs are paying for Kessel. If the cap remains flat, that leaves $23 million for the rest of the roster. There is not much room there for a couple of top 4 defencemen at $5 million/year let alone one for $8 to $10 million/year. Gardiner is going to command big dollars and if Connor Brown continues to improve, his second contract will also be for big dollars. The Leafs may have to rely more on players in their entry level contracts or role players similar to Dominic Moore who make in the $1 million to $2 million dollar range. Hopefully for the Leafs and their fans, the cap increases quite a bit over the next couple of seasons. If it does, that will give them the ability to get a true top pairing defenceman.
Toronto's cap situation:


https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs

In short, as of now, they have ($1,679,167) for '17-18, $32,230,833 in available cap space for 2018-19, $41,950,000 for 2019-20, $56,000,000 for '20-21.

For 2017-18, add $5,300,000 (Horton) & $5,250,000 (Lupul)[LTIR]
Net, they're under cap by $8,870,833 for this season right now.
For '18-19 $5.3M (Horton), '19-20 $5.3M (Horton).

The Maple Leafs are paying $1,200,000 each of the next 5 seasons of Phil Kessel's contract.
 

gcostanza

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Jul 24, 2010
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The third year of the Marleau contract is probably get rid able by the Leafs should Marleau slow down in productivity in his late thirties.
His 3rd year has bonus pay out of 3 million and base salary of 1.25 million.

Likely the 3 million in bonus money is paid out around labour day heading into his last season.
After that a team would owe him 1.25 million while taking a cap hit of 6.25 million. In the past, deals like that have been very attractive to small market or re building teams trying to get to cap floor.
Even though Marleau has a no trade deal things might still be worked out to get him to waive it if he can't play the way he used to.
if all else fails, Robidas Island will beckon.
 

smuddan

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Mar 7, 2007
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The Marleau signing is a clear signal that the Leafs want to compete for better than just a playoff spot, but the big question remains on defense.

Although Pittsburg proved that you don't need a big stud d to win the cup, the Leafs IMO have the weakest core among the competing teams in the east. The Hainsey for Hunwick is a marginal upgrade and you don't know what you're going to get from the two new Swedes. Dermott looks to be the only one in the farm that has a real shot of making the big club next season and everybody else are at least two years away.

Unfortunately the market for a top pairing d man is like the hot real estate market in TO two months ago and there's no sign that it's going to cool down soon like the real estate market has. The Leafs will have to pay dearly if they want to land that top d they need.
 

saxon

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Dec 2, 2009
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Toronto's cap situation:


https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs

In short, as of now, they have ($1,679,167) for '17-18, $32,230,833 in available cap space for 2018-19, $41,950,000 for 2019-20, $56,000,000 for '20-21.

For 2017-18, add $5,300,000 (Horton) & $5,250,000 (Lupul)[LTIR]
Net, they're under cap by $8,870,833 for this season right now.
For '18-19 $5.3M (Horton), '19-20 $5.3M (Horton).

The Maple Leafs are paying $1,200,000 each of the next 5 seasons of Phil Kessel's contract.
Are Brown and Hyman under contract for the upcoming season? If not how will that affect the cap considering both would demand huge raises.
 

Velvets

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Jan 17, 2017
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Are Brown and Hyman under contract for the upcoming season? If not how will that affect the cap considering both would demand huge raises.
They are both RFAs. Bargaining power is limited and both are likely to sign bridge contracts for 2-3 million max. Both will have to sign "prove me" contracts since each has only 1 year at the NHL level.
 

gcostanza

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Jul 24, 2010
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Are Brown and Hyman under contract for the upcoming season? If not how will that affect the cap considering both would demand huge raises.
No.
It would shrink available space by however much each signs for.
If you click the link, it will show you each player's status.
**My guess on salaries would be $2M (Brown) & $1.4M (Hyman).




**If they sign 1 year deals.
 

glamphotographer

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Nov 5, 2011
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The third year of the Marleau contract is probably get rid able by the Leafs should Marleau slow down in productivity in his late thirties.
His 3rd year has bonus pay out of 3 million and base salary of 1.25 million.

Likely the 3 million in bonus money is paid out around labour day heading into his last season.
After that a team would owe him 1.25 million while taking a cap hit of 6.25 million. In the past, deals like that have been very attractive to small market or re building teams trying to get to cap floor.
Even though Marleau has a no trade deal things might still be worked out to get him to waive it if he can't play the way he used to.
Marleau may retire after year 2 of his contract. He's 37.
 

smuddan

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Marleau may retire after year 2 of his contract. He's 37.
He'll be 38 when the season starts. The only risk with that is his game can take a sharp dive but it'll only cost cap space which the Leafs can afford for a couple of years. I'd rather they used that on a top pairing d man but I guess we'll have to trust Babcock and Lou's judgement that Marleau is a better fit.
 

Samranchoi

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There is the possibility that JVR will be moved at some time as the Leafs will not be able to sign him after next season as he will be wanting 5 or 6 years at $5 milion plus/year. Marleau, although older, is better defensively than JVR and gives the Leafs the ability to try and trade JVR and another piece (player and/or draft pick) for another piece of the puzzle (defenseman???). I don't think Bozak is going anywhere this season as he is a very useful center to have. The Leafs are over the cap but once they are able to clear Hortons salary off the books after the season starts, cap space will not be an issue unless they are able to get a top 4 defenseman that costs a lot more than what JVR is making. The third year of Marleau's contact may be an issue unless the cap goes up by quite a bit. Maybe they can trade Komarov as well as they have someone making much less who is a similar player as him in the minors. The Nylander, Marner and Matthew contracts will go a long way is determining what the Leafs will be able to do long term after next season. Last year, I was thinking Tavares would be good to have here but the Leafs will not be able to fit him in due to cap restrictions. Besides, Matthews is going to be a better player if he stays healthy.
 

gcostanza

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Marleau may retire after year 2 of his contract. He's 37.
Marleau will not retire after Year 2, as he wouldn't get paid for Year 3, if he did.
Even if he did retire, his Cap Hit would stay on Toronto's books for Year 3.
He may well move to Robidas Island for Year 3. or to a club needing to get to the cap floor, after the Leafs pay Year 3 bonus.
 

Samranchoi

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Marleau will not retire after Year 2, as he wouldn't get paid for Year 3, if he did.
Even if he did retire, his Cap Hit would stay on Toronto's books for Year 3.
He may well move to Robidas Island for Year 3. or to a club needing to get to the cap floor, after the Leafs pay Year 3 bonus.
I thought I heard something about free agents of Marleaus age where, no matter what, the cap hit cannot be hidden anywhere. It will stay with him till the three years is over. If he is a bust or gets injured the only way to get rid of the cap hit is to trade him but he has a NMC in his three year contract.
 

maurice93

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Marleau may retire after year 2 of his contract. He's 37.
If he retires after year 2 that might be the worst case scenario, I believe. The 3rd year of the contract still 100% goes against the cap. This is the rule for anyone who signs a long term contract after 35.
 

maurice93

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Who was the guy that was convinced that the leafs were going to get mcdavid.. either by buying him ( not allowed by the CBA) or via RFA.
 

smuddan

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Mar 7, 2007
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Interesting discussions about what's going to happen in year 3 of Marleau's contract.

It's also possible that the Leafs are thinking by then the economics will only allow them to keep two of the big 3 (Matthews + either Marner or Nylander), so one of them may have to be traded for cap space just as Tampa did with Drouin. That's the motivation to push for a run in the next couple of years while they can afford keeping all three.
 

gcostanza

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I thought I heard something about free agents of Marleaus age where, no matter what, the cap hit cannot be hidden anywhere. It will stay with him till the three years is over. If he is a bust or gets injured the only way to get rid of the cap hit is to trade him but he has a NMC in his three year contract.
The cap hit stays with Marleau. Should he be (long term) injured, he can be placed on LTIR (and his cap hit will accompany him).
 

gcostanza

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Jul 24, 2010
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Interesting discussions about what's going to happen in year 3 of Marleau's contract.

It's also possible that the Leafs are thinking by then the economics will only allow them to keep two of the big 3 (Matthews + either Marner or Nylander), so one of them may have to be traded for cap space just as Tampa did with Drouin. That's the motivation to push for a run in the next couple of years while they can afford keeping all three.
The only way Toronto will be unable to accommodate the Big 3 is if the Salary Cap plunges downward (will not happen).
 

gcostanza

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If he retires after year 2 that might be the worst case scenario, I believe. The 3rd year of the contract still 100% goes against the cap. This is the rule for anyone who signs a long term contract after 35.
This is unlikely to happen.
I'm pretty sure Patrick Marleau is interested in collecting the $4.25M due him in Year 3.
If he isn't, Mrs. Marleau probably is, in which case Patrick probably won't retire until his contract is complete.
 

smuddan

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The only way Toronto will be unable to accommodate the Big 3 is if the Salary Cap plunges downward (will not happen).
The following quote from a recent article by Damien Cox may be of interest to you :

" Unless the Leafs can convince two of the three to take below-market deals — and why would those players do such a thing? — they can’t last together. Based on the numbers coming out of Edmonton with their young stars, Toronto’s terrific trio would likely require something between $25-30 million in annual cap hits by the 2019-20 season. With the cap inching upwards in recent years, let’s assume by the summer of 2019, it will still be less than $80 million, which means at $30 million in combined salaries Nos. 34, 29 and 16 would be taking up more than 37 per cent of Toronto’s payroll.

That math just doesn’t work. One, at least, will probably have to go. So it will be Matthews and one of the other two.

In the meantime, you try to max out the possibilities now while you have all three under affordable contracts. Bring in Marleau, Dominic Moore and Ron Hainsey, and see if you can make magic this season or next. It would have been nice to land Travis Hamonic as well, but the Leafs still have James van Riemsdyk to dangle to get the defenceman they need.

The cap is making the Leafs, and other teams, move more quickly than they otherwise would prefer. This system is all about making sure teams don’t get too good, or at least too far ahead of the pack, and if and when they reach championship quality, to make sure they are chopped down to size immediately.

Look at what has happened to the Penguins less than a month after claiming a second consecutive Stanley Cup. They have lost Nick Bonino, Trevor Daley, Hainsey, Chris Kunitz and goalie Marc-Andre Fleury.

Look at Washington. The Capitals dared to go for it last season and have now seen Kevin Shattenkirk, Justin Williams, Nate Schmidt and Karl Alzner stripped away, plus they had to pretty much give away winger Marcus Johansson in order to retain T.J. Oshie, Dmitry Orlov and Evgeny Kuznetsov at the prices they were commanding.

Tampa Bay had to shed Jonathan Drouin for a prospect. Edmonton needed to move Jordan Eberle to free up dough for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

It’s happening everywhere. Tough, agonizing decisions between who stays and who goes, and not just with older players, like Chicago having to let 33-year-old Patrick Sharp go back in 2015 (he’s now going back to the Windy City as a cheaper player after two years in Dallas). Young, promising players with upside — Drouin, Johansson — are having to be sacrificed at the altar of cap control.

Edmonton and Toronto represent the really sobering news. They are teams that sunk all the way to the bottom and endured awful results for several seasons to accumulate high draft picks. Now that they’ve secured quality talent with those picks and are ready to compete, they’re learning they may not be able to keep their young cores together for more than a few years.

But these are the rules. For the foreseeable future, this is how the NHL is going to work. You’ll be able to have two big money stars, maybe three for a time, but that’s it. No more dynasties. No more teams like the 2002 Detroit Red Wings with a double-digit number of Hall of Fame players. "
 

Samranchoi

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The cap hit stays with Marleau. Should he be (long term) injured, he can be placed on LTIR (and his cap hit will accompany him).
Based upon Marleaus history (not missing games), I doubt that will happen but anything can happen.
 
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