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Battle of the global warming alarmists - Basketcase vs. Frankfooter

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fuji

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So, now you're claiming that only people with emotional, religious viewpoints think there might be a difference between the coloured lines and the solid black line in the 21st century section of the graph below
Again you try and change the topic back to the models rather than acknowledge that human caused global warming is a proven fact.
 

Frankfooter

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So, now you're claiming that only people with emotional, religious viewpoints think there might be a difference between the coloured lines and the solid black line in the 21st century section of the graph below (which was published just last month in Nature).

Do you know what the word "mismatch" means?



http://www.nature.com/news/global-warming-hiatus-debate-flares-up-again-1.19414#/b2

http://www.nature.com/articles/ncli...trZLMnaUyec=&tracking_referrer=www.nature.com



The one thing I'll concede is that I think it's time for you to get your eyes checked.
Still lying about this study?
They study talks about a slowdown in the increase of warming, not a pause or hiatus.
As in global warming was continuing, but at a slightly slower rate, for a while.
The study you are lying about confirms global warming, it doesn't disprove it or the IPCC's projections.

You are a troll.

Michael Mann, one of the authors of the Fyfe paper:
Our study does NOT support the notion of a "pause" in global warming, only a *temporary slowdown*, which was due to natural factors, and has now ended.
Our recent work (http://www.nature.com/articles/srep19831), which you fail to cite, indicates that the record warmth we are now experiencing can only be explained by human-caused global warming.
https://www.facebook.com/MichaelMannScientist/posts/1040204106035791

Michael Mann, who you are quoting also noted this:
Michael E. Mann ‎@MichaelEMann

Yes, Feb 2016 saw 2C warmer-than-preindustrial "dangerous" warming: https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/708811624891613185

7:37 PM - 12 Mar 2016 · San Diego, CA, United States
 

canada-man

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Again you try and change the topic back to the models rather than acknowledge that human caused global warming is a proven fact.
computer models and graphs which can be manipulated are not facts
 

fuji

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computer models and graphs which can be manipulated are not facts
The direct measurement of the warming effect is fact. The study in Nature I posted directly measured heat radiating from the sky and proved that human generated greenhouse gases are warming the planet to the exact amount the theories had predicted.

Your claim that global warming science is just computer modeling and graphs is the sort of ignorant nonsense that reflects the poverty of the ludicrous blogs you get your misinformation from.
 

canada-man

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The direct measurement of the warming effect is fact. The study in Nature I posted directly measured heat radiating from the sky and proved that human generated greenhouse gases are warming the planet to the exact amount the theories had predicted.

Your claim that global warming science is just computer modeling and graphs is the sort of ignorant nonsense that reflects the poverty of the ludicrous blogs you get your misinformation from.
the how do you explain a period of warming in the 1920s-1930s?
 

fuji

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the how do you explain a period of warming in the 1920s-1930s?
Let's start with the facts: direct measurement of human caused global warming. It's a fact. You can't debate it away by changing the topic to 1920. Then we can discuss what other factors may be at work in addition to human caused global warming.
 

canada-man

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Let's start with the facts: direct measurement of human caused global warming. It's a fact. You can't debate it away by changing the topic to 1920. Then we can discuss what other factors may be at work in addition to human caused global warming.

The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consulafft, at Bergen, Norway.

Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.

Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.


November 2, 1922. As reported by the AP and published in The Washington Post - 88 years ago!


http://www.snopes.com/politics/science/globalwarming1922.asp



Fuji will ignore this and sputter insults and personal attacks
 

FAST

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What needs explaining for you during that time?

Confirms once again you can't read a graph,...what is your explanation for the steep continuous rise in temp from 1909 thru 1947,...???

Must have been all those Cadillac Escalades in 1910.

FAST
 

K Douglas

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Jan 5, 2005
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Or perhaps a Venn Diagram will help get the point across?

I love that diagram. Gotta use this one with some of my work colleagues. :)
 

K Douglas

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The science isn't based on computer models.

We have direct scientific proof that greenhouse gases cause warming.

The models are an attempt to predict based on the science. Not the other way around. Turns out the factors we have proven, such as that greenhouse gases cause global warming, are only one factor in the climate as evidenced by the large residuals in the models.

But claiming that the science is based only on computer models is just lying.
The computer models are trying to simulate a climate which is a chaotic system. Simply not possible. And no matter what simulation is done they have continually projected warming far in excess as to what has and is occurring. The models have been spectacularly wrong, MF2 is right.
No one disputes that co2 is a greenhouse gas and greenhouse gases cause warming. The dispute is by a) how much and b) what portion of co2 is human induced through fossil fuel burning and deforestation.
The science is not sound no matter which way you try to spin it.
 

fuji

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The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consulafft, at Bergen, Norway.

Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.

Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.


November 2, 1922. As reported by the AP and published in The Washington Post - 88 years ago!


http://www.snopes.com/politics/science/globalwarming1922.asp



Fuji will ignore this and sputter insults and personal attacks
Another attempt to change the topic. That's just dishonest. You have no reply to the fact that human caused global warming has been directly measured and is now a proven fact.

You are doing the same thing moviefan did: trying to change the topic to the fact that overall predictions continue to have a large error term, in order to gloss over and ignore the proof that actually ends this debate.

It's clearly the case that there are many factors that impact temperature that we do not understand. That doesn't alter the proven fact that human activity is having a warning effect on the climate.
 

fuji

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The computer models are trying to simulate a climate which is a chaotic system. Simply not possible. And no matter what simulation is done they have continually projected warming far in excess as to what has and is occurring. The models have been spectacularly wrong, MF2 is right.
No one disputes that co2 is a greenhouse gas and greenhouse gases cause warming. The dispute is by a) how much and b) what portion of co2 is human induced through fossil fuel burning and deforestation.
The science is not sound no matter which way you try to spin it.
Actually the warming attributed to human activity has been measured and is EXACTLY what the theory said. Exactly. To a very precise degree: hard physical evidence.

What is true is that the climate is ALSO affected by many other things besides human activity, and we don't have AC accurate model for those other things.

We do, however, have a very accurate and now proven model for the warming effects of greenhouse gas.

By analogy, if I tell you that turning on your furnace will warm your house 15 degrees, I'm not wrong if it only goes up in reality by 5 degrees because you left open a window and let freezing air in.
 

canada-man

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Another attempt to change the topic. That's just dishonest. You have no reply to the fact that human caused global warming has been directly measured and is now a proven fact.

You are doing the same thing moviefan did: trying to change the topic to the fact that overall predictions continue to have a large error term, in order to gloss over and ignore the proof that actually ends this debate.

It's clearly the case that there are many factors that impact temperature that we do not understand. That doesn't alter the proven fact that human activity is having a warning effect on the climate.

"The climate of New-York and the contiguous Atlantic seaboard has long been a study of great interest. We have just experienced a remarkable instance of its peculiarity. The Hudson River, by a singular freak of temperature, has thrown off its icy mantle and opened its waters to navigation.” – New York Times, Jan. 2, 1870

“Is our climate changing? The succession of temperate summers and open winters through several years, culminating last winter in the almost total failure of the ice crop throughout the valley of the Hudson, makes the question pertinent. The older inhabitants tell us that the winters are not as cold now as when they were young, and we have all observed a marked diminution of the average cold even in this last decade.” – New York Times, June 23, 1890

“The question is again being discussed whether recent and long-continued observations do not point to the advent of a second glacial period, when the countries now basking in the fostering warmth of a tropical sun will ultimately give way to the perennial frost and snow of the polar regions.” – New York Times, Feb. 24, 1895

Professor Gregory of Yale University stated that “another world ice-epoch is due.” He was the American representative to the Pan-Pacific Science Congress and warned that North America would disappear as far south as the Great Lakes, and huge parts of Asia and Europe would be “wiped out.” – Chicago Tribune, Aug. 9, 1923

“The discoveries of changes in the sun's heat and southward advance of glaciers in recent years have given rise to the conjectures of the possible advent of a new ice age – Time Magazine, Sept. 10, 1923


Headline: “America in Longest Warm Spell Since 1776; Temperature Line Records a 25-year Rise” – New York Times, March 27, 1933

“America is believed by Weather Bureau scientists to be on the verge of a change of climate, with a return to increasing rains and deeper snows and the colder winters of grandfather's day.” – Associated Press, Dec. 15, 1934

Warming Arctic Climate Melting Glaciers Faster, Raising Ocean Level, Scientist Says – “A mysterious warming of the climate is slowly manifesting itself in the Arctic, engendering a "serious international problem," Dr. Hans Ahlmann, noted Swedish geophysicist, said today. – New York Times, May 30, 1937

“Greenland's polar climate has moderated so consistently that communities of hunters have evolved into fishing villages. Sea mammals, vanishing from the west coast, have been replaced by codfish and other fish species in the area's southern waters.” – New York Times, Aug. 29, 1954

“An analysis of weather records from Little America shows a steady warming of climate over the last half century. The rise in average temperature at the Antarctic outpost has been about five degrees Fahrenheit.” – New York Times, May 31, 1958

“Several thousand scientists of many nations have recently been climbing mountains, digging tunnels in glaciers, journeying to the Antarctic, camping on floating Arctic ice. Their object has been to solve a fascinating riddle: what is happening to the world's ice? – New York Times, Dec. 7, 1958

“After a week of discussions on the causes of climate change, an assembly of specialists from several continents seems to have reached unanimous agreement on only one point: it is getting colder.” – New York Times, Jan. 30, 1961

“Like an outrigger canoe riding before a huge comber, the earth with its inhabitants is caught on the downslope of an immense climatic wave that is plunging us toward another Ice Age.” – Los Angeles Times, Dec. 23, 1962

“Col. Bernt Balchen, polar explorer and flier, is circulating a paper among polar specialists proposing that the Arctic pack ice is thinning and that the ocean at the North Pole may become an open sea within a decade or two." – New York Times, Feb. 20, 1969

“By 1985, air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half . . . ." – Life magazine, January 1970

“In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish.” – Paul Ehrlich, Earth Day, 1970

"Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind. We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation." – Barry Commoner (Washington University), Earth Day, 1970

Because of increased dust, cloud cover and water vapor, "the planet will cool, the water vapor will fall and freeze, and a new Ice Age will be born.” – Newsweek magazine, Jan. 26, 1970

“The United States and the Soviet Union are mounting large-scale investigations to determine why the Arctic climate is becoming more frigid, why parts of the Arctic sea ice have recently become ominously thicker and whether the extent of that ice cover contributes to the onset of ice ages.” – New York Times, July 18, 1970

“In the next 50 years, fine dust that humans discharge into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuel will screen out so much of the sun's rays that the Earth's average temperature could fall by six degrees. Sustained emissions over five to 10 years, could be sufficient to trigger an ice age." – Washington Post, July 9, 1971

“It's already getting colder. Some midsummer day, perhaps not too far in the future, a hard, killing frost will sweep down on the wheat fields of Saskatchewan, the Dakotas and the Russian steppes. . . .” – Los Angles Times, Oct. 24, 1971

“An international team of specialists has concluded from eight indexes of climate that there is no end in sight to the cooling trend of the last 30 years, at least in the Northern Hemisphere.” – New York Times, Jan. 5, 1978

“A poll of climate specialists in seven countries has found a consensus that there will be no catastrophic changes in the climate by the end of the century. But the specialists were almost equally divided on whether there would be a warming, a cooling or no change at all.” – New York Times, Feb. 18, 1978

“A global warming trend could bring heat waves, dust-dry farmland and disease, the experts said... Under this scenario, the resort town of Ocean City, Md., will lose 39 feet of shoreline by 2000 and a total of 85 feet within the next 25 years.” – San Jose Mercury News, June 11, 1986

“Global warming could force Americans to build 86 more power plants -- at a cost of $110 billion -- to keep all their air conditioners running 20 years from now, a new study says...Using computer models, researchers concluded that global warming would raise average annual temperatures nationwide two degrees by 2010, and the drain on power would require the building of 86 new midsize power plants – Associated Press, May 15, 1989

“New York will probably be like Florida 15 years from now.” -- St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Sept. 17, 1989

"[By] 1995, the greenhouse effect would be desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots . . . [By 1996] The Platte River of Nebraska would be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shut down computers . . . The Mexican police will round up illegal American migrants surging into Mexico seeking work as field hands.” – "Dead Heat: The Race Against the Greenhouse Effect," Michael Oppenheimer and Robert H. Boyle, 1990.

"It appears that we have a very good case for suggesting that the El Ninos are going to become more frequent, and they're going to become more intense and in a few years, or a decade or so, we'll go into a permanent El Nino. So instead of having cool water periods for a year or two, we'll have El Nino upon El Nino, and that will become the norm. And you'll have an El Nino, that instead of lasting 18 months, lasts 18 years,” according to Dr. Russ Schnell, a scientist doing atmospheric research at Mauna Loa Observatory. – BBC, Nov. 7, 1997

"Scientists are warning that some of the Himalayan glaciers could vanish within ten years because of global warming. A build-up of greenhouse gases is blamed for the meltdown, which could lead to drought and flooding in the region affecting millions of people." -- The Birmingham Post in England, July 26, 1999

“This year (2007) is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998.” – ScienceDaily, Jan. 5, 2007

Arctic warming has become so dramatic that the North Pole may melt this summer (2008), report scientists studying the effects of climate change in the field. "We're actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history]," David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker. – National Geographic News, June 20, 2008

"So the climate will continue to change, even if we make maximum effort to slow the growth of carbon dioxide. Arctic sea ice will melt away in the summer season within the next few decades. Mountain glaciers, providing fresh water for rivers that supply hundreds of millions of people, will disappear - practically all of the glaciers could be gone within 50 years. . . Clearly, if we burn all fossil fuels, we will destroy the planet we know . . . We would set the planet on a course to the ice-free state, with sea level 75 metres higher. Climatic disasters would occur continually." Dr. James Hansen (NASA GISS), The Observer, Feb. 15, 2009.

* * *

Climate change? Yes, there has been plenty of that during the past 140 years. Despite warnings by "experts of the day" of approaching climate disasters, mankind somehow managed to survive. A decade or so from now, after earth's climate changes once again, those who are old enough will recall with amusement the time, early in the 21st century, when the world went crazy over an imaginary threat called “global warming.”
 

Frankfooter

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Confirms once again you can't read a graph,...what is your explanation for the steep continuous rise in temp from 1909 thru 1947,...???

Must have been all those Cadillac Escalades in 1910.

FAST
Are you expecting the climate to change totally evenly, or in a straight line?
 

Frankfooter

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Climate change? Yes, there has been plenty of that during the past 140 years. Despite warnings by "experts of the day" of approaching climate disasters, mankind somehow managed to survive. A decade or so from now, after earth's climate changes once again, those who are old enough will recall with amusement the time, early in the 21st century, when the world went crazy over an imaginary threat called “global warming.”
What was the point of all that copy and paste, CM?
 

Moviefan-2

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Actually the warming attributed to human activity has been measured and is EXACTLY what the theory said.
This is too bizarre, even by your standards.

Using measurements that a published paper says are "affecting the surface energy balance," you keep posting that the Earth's recorded temperatures are EXACTLY what the hypothesis said they would be.

The moment someone replies that the recorded temperatures aren't what the hypothesis said they would be, you accuse them of trying to change the subject.

And to think that Franky has the nerve to call me a troll. :biggrin1:
 

canada-man

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What was the point of all that copy and paste, CM?
debunking the claims that man made global warming is caused by CO2 which is 0.039% of Air
 
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