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25 Years Of Predicting The Global Warming ‘Tipping Point’

canada-man

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canadianmale.wordpress.com
http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/04/25-years-of-predicting-the-global-warming-tipping-point/



For decades now, those concerned about global warming have been predicting the so-called “tipping point” — the point beyond which it’ll be too late to stave off catastrophic global warming.

It seems like every year the “tipping point” is close to being reached, and that the world must get rid of fossil fuels to save the planet. That is, until we’ve passed that deadline and the next such “tipping point” is predicted.

Would you believe it was eight years ago today that the United Nations predicted we only had “as little as eight years left to avoid a dangerous global average rise of 2C or more.” This failed prediction, however, has not stopped the U.N. from issuing more apocalyptic predictions since.

To celebrate more than two decades of dire predictions, The Daily Caller News Foundation presents this list of some of the “greatest” predictions made by scientists, activists and politicians — most of which we’ve now passed.

1. 2015 is the ‘last effective opportunity’ to stop catastrophic warming
World leaders meeting at the Vatican last week issued a statement saying that 2015 was the “last effective opportunity to negotiate arrangements that keep human-induced warming below 2-degrees [Celsius].”

Pope Francis wants to weigh in on global warming, and is expected to issue an encyclical saying basically the same thing. Francis will likely reiterate that 2015 is the last chance to stop massive warming.

But what he should really say is that the U.N. conference this year is the “last” chance to cut a deal to stem global warming… since last year when the U.N. said basically the same thing about 2014’s climate summit.

2. France’s foreign minister said we only have “500 days” to stop “climate chaos”
When Laurent Fabius met with Secretary of State John Kerry on May 13, 2014 to talk about world issues he said “we have 500 days to avoid climate chaos.”

Ironically at the time of Fabius’ comments, the U.N. had scheduled a climate summit to meet in Paris in December 2015 — some 565 days after his remarks. Looks like the U.N. is 65 days too late to save the world.

3. President Barack Obama is the last chance to stop global warming
When Obama made the campaign promise to “slow the rise of the oceans” some environmentalists may have taken him quite literally.

In 2012, the United Nations Foundation President Tim Wirth told Climatewire that Obama’s second term was “the last window of opportunity” to impose policies to restrict fossil fuel use. Wirth said it’s “the last chance we have to get anything approaching 2 degrees Centigrade,” adding that if “we don’t do it now, we are committing the world to a drastically different place.”

Even before that, then-National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center head James Hansen warned in 2009 that Obama only “has four years to save Earth.” I wonder what they now think about their predictions?

4. Remember when we had “hours” to stop global warming?
In 2009, world leaders met in Copenhagen, Denmark to potentially hash out another climate treaty. That same year, the head of Canada’s Green Party wrote that there was only “hours” left to stop global warming.

“We have hours to act to avert a slow-motion tsunami that could destroy civilization as we know it,” Elizabeth May, leader of the Greens in Canada, wrote in 2009. “Earth has a long time. Humanity does not. We need to act urgently. We no longer have decades; we have hours. We mark that in Earth Hour on Saturday.”

5. United Kingdom Prime Minister Gordon Brown said there was only 50 days left to save Earth
2009 was a bad year for global warming predictions. That year Brown warned there was only “50 days to save the world from global warming,” the BBC reported. According to Brown there was “no plan B.”

Brown has been booted out of office since then. I wonder what he’d say about global warming today?

6. Let’s not forget Prince Charles’s warning we only had 96 months to save the planet
It’s only been about 70 months since Charles said in July 2009 that there would be “irretrievable climate and ecosystem collapse, and all that goes with it.” So the world apparently only has 26 months left to stave off an utter catastrophe.

7. The U.N.’s top climate scientist said in 2007 we only had four years to save the world
Rajendra Pachauri, the former head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in 2007 that if “there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late.”

“What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment,” he said.

Well, it’s 2015 and no new U.N. climate treaty has been presented. The only thing that’s changed since then is that Pachauri was forced to resign earlier this year amid accusations he sexually harassed multiple female coworkers.

8. Environmentalists warned in 2002 the world had a decade to go green
Environmentalist write George Monbiot wrote in the UK Guardian that within “as little as 10 years, the world will be faced with a choice: arable farming either continues to feed the world’s animals or it continues to feed the world’s people. It cannot do both.”

In 2002, about 930 million people around the world were undernourished, according to U.N. data. by 2014, that number shrank to 805 million. Sorry, Monbiot.

9. The “tipping point” warning first started in 1989
In the late 1980s the U.N. was already claiming the world had only a decade to solve global warming or face the consequences.

The San Jose Mercury News reported on June 30, 1989 that a “senior environmental official at the United Nations, Noel Brown, says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000.”

That prediction didn’t come true 15 years ago, and the U.N. is sounding the same alarm today.
 

Occasionally

Active member
May 22, 2011
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Reminds me of all those banking and real estate analysts who have been saying the Canadian housing market is going to crash with skyrocketing interest rates. Bail ship before the bubble bursts.

They've been saying this for 10 years and housing is still strong and mortgage rates I believe are at their lowest ever (or close to it). Even during the global crisis in 2008-2009, Canadian real estate barely budged.

I know guys who didn't buy property (preferring to rent) since they followed these analysts and assumed they could get by renting for years and then would swoop in and buy up cheap properties when everyone else would be dumping and going broke.

These guys missed out big time.

Every article for the past 5+ years have said rates would rise. Mortgage prime stayed at 3.00% since 2010. It finally does change and it turns out it drops 0.15%. The batting average for those articles is 0 for X where X is the number of real estate articles numbering probably 1,000.

Any time some scientists, analyst or whomever hype up "big catastrophes", it typically means nada. But they wouldn't do it unless there is some kind of back end profiteering going on. I can understand banks trying to drive business, but what profits do all these scientists get from scare tactic predictions?
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
91,866
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Then again we are suffering through:

1) Australian drought
2) Global surface temperature increases
3) Arctic ice melts
4) disappearing glaciers and snowfall
5) Californian drought
6) cold east coast through slowing of AMOC
7) freak superstorms
8) Russian drought
9) Syrian drought leading to present situation
 

twizz

Banned
Mar 8, 2014
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Canada-Man

Please post something peer-reviewed from an established climate science journal, if you cannot do so then you have no evidence.
Also before anyone else tries to quote a weatherman, meteorology is NOT climare science.
 

nobody123

serial onanist
Feb 1, 2012
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nowhere
Canadaman Man is one of those people who, on a cold winter's day, proclaims loudly and proudly: "So, you still think global warming is a thing, hurrr durrr!"

NEWSFLASH: The debate is over. Man-made climate change is real, ongoing, and we're fucked. The only people who refuse to accept this are tea partiers, kooks (but I repeat myself), and oil industry lobbyists. Meanwhile, the actual scientific consensus is at waaaaaay over 95%. The debate is over. We all lost.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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OddSox

Active member
May 3, 2006
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36
Ottawa
Because anything that comes off that site is worthless.
Climate depot is paid for by the oil industry and has a history of fudging data, outright lying and fabrication.

Here's a good list of the crap the guy who runs it, Morano, has done.
http://mediamatters.org/research/2012/12/27/climate-change-misinformer-of-the-year-marc-mor/191878
Again, the chart is from another source and uses actual numbers. Even the IPCC accepts that there hasn't been any warming for the last number of years.
 

highpark

Active member
Jan 20, 2004
588
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Consequences of global warming r apon us now. California , australia , south america, rapid melting of ice sheets in north. As a pecimist who has given up on this retched selfish self sighted species it's fun to watch. I'm predicting insects will take over the world once we're gone.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
10,489
171
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Here are a few of my favorite predictions:

-- Children today (as in the year 2015) will have no idea what snow looks like (Dr. David Viner).

-- Temperatures will go skyrocketing upwards in the early years of the 21st century (the trend line on Prof. Michael Mann's infamous hockey-stick graph).

-- The Himalayan Glaciers will completely disappear by the year 2035 (the IPCC).

Only George got it right:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BB0aFPXr4n4
 

op12

Active member
Oct 19, 2004
331
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43
Then again we are suffering through:

1) Australian drought
2) Global surface temperature increases
3) Arctic ice melts
4) disappearing glaciers and snowfall
5) Californian drought
6) cold east coast through slowing of AMOC
7) freak superstorms
8) Russian drought
9) Syrian drought leading to present situation
Also:
10) Ocean acidification,
11) Coral reef destruction (due to the pH change).
 

canada-man

Well-known member
Jun 16, 2007
31,992
2,903
113
Toronto, Ontario
canadianmale.wordpress.com
Canadaman Man is one of those people who, on a cold winter's day, proclaims loudly and proudly: "So, you still think global warming is a thing, hurrr durrr!"

NEWSFLASH: The debate is over. Man-made climate change is real, ongoing, and we're fucked. The only people who refuse to accept this are tea partiers, kooks (but I repeat myself), and oil industry lobbyists. Meanwhile, the actual scientific consensus is at waaaaaay over 95%. The debate is over. We all lost.


The Earth’s temperature has “plateaued” and there has been no global warming for at least the last 18 years, says Dr. John Christy, professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center (ESSC) at the University of Alabama/Huntsville.
“That’s basically a fact. There’s not much to comment on,” Christy said when CNSNews.com asked him to remark on the lack of global warming for nearly two decades as of October 1st.

The "plateau" is evident in the climate record Christy and former NASA scientist Roy Spencer compiled using actual raw temperature data collected from 14 instruments aboard various weather satellites.

CNSNews.com asked Christy why the United Nations’ climate models, which all predicted steeply rising temperatures over the past two decades, were all proven wrong.

“You’re going back to a fundamental question of science that when you understand a system, you are able to predict its behavior. The fact that no one predicted what’s happened in the past 18 years indicates we have a long way to go to understand the climate system,” Christy replied.

“And that the way the predictions were wrong were all to one direction, which means the predictions or the science is biased in one direction, toward overcooking the atmosphere.”

Christy added that basing government policy affecting millions of Americans on “very poor” climate models that have been shown to be inaccurate is “a fool’s errand.”


http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article...atellite-data-no-global-warming-past-18-years
 

K Douglas

Half Man Half Amazing
Jan 5, 2005
27,303
7,983
113
Room 112
Then again we are suffering through:

1) Australian drought
2) Global surface temperature increases
3) Arctic ice melts
4) disappearing glaciers and snowfall
5) Californian drought
6) cold east coast through slowing of AMOC
7) freak superstorms
8) Russian drought
9) Syrian drought leading to present situation
Droughts have been around for eons so scratch 1,5,8,9 off your list. As have superstorms so scratch off 7. 2 hasn't happened since 1998 and even global warming advocates have conceded that. That leaves 3,4 & 6. Truth is nobody has an answer because much of climate as a phenomenon cannot be explained.
 

nobody123

serial onanist
Feb 1, 2012
3,567
5
38
nowhere
The Earth’s temperature has “plateaued” and there has been no global warming for at least the last 18 years, says Dr. John Christy, professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center (ESSC) at the University of Alabama/Huntsville.
Forget what thousands of climate sceintists the world over say. Forget tens of thousands of peer reviewed articles. Forget the entire idea of scientific consensus. One dude in Alabama, who apparently is a climate scientist of some sort, disagrees. Whelp, I'm convinced.

Stay tuned, next we can discuss the "scientists" and "engineers" (yeah, that's right baby, plural!) that will tell you that since jet fuel can't melt steel beams, 9/11 was an inside job. (that sound you hear is Big Sleazy chomping at the bit)
 

basketcase

Well-known member
Dec 29, 2005
61,454
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Because anything that comes off that site is worthless....
That specific graph is legit. The issue is that they cherry pick a range of data they think shows what they want and ignores the wider trends.


And of course you know all about cherry-picking information.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
91,866
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113
The Earth’s temperature has “plateaued” and there has been no global warming for at least the last 18 years, says Dr. John Christy, professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center (ESSC) at the University of Alabama/Huntsville.
“That’s basically a fact. There’s not much to comment on,”
Thats basically bullshit.

Christie is an idiot, another hack, a meteorologist, evangelist.
He published one series of papers and it was such a laughing stock, full of errors, that he hasn't published one since.

What does he say about warming?
"I can say that there certainly hasn't been a warming of temperatures since [1998]."
NOAA says that 9 of the 10 hottest years on record happened since 1998, including last year, the hottest year on record.
http://climate.nasa.gov/news/2221/

Christy is an idiot.
 

barnacler

Well-known member
May 13, 2013
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IMO we are at far greater risk of calamitous results from Global cooling than global warming. Global cooling is associated with dramatically lower crop yields, even total failures, widespread famine and unrest, droughts AND floods. And the scary thing is that global cooling can take place very very quickly in the event of substantial volcanic activity. There is substantial scientific evidence and correlation (no, not CONCLUSIVE - but neither is IPCC models) that sunspots are the main determinant of climate other than volcanic activity, and sunspots are falling rapidly.

The IPCC models are almost beyond salvation now in terms of their predictive power, because the global temperature has spectacularly failed to match their models.

I will say this about the IPCC - it is NOt a scientific body, it is a POLITICAL body. Intergovernmental Panel etc. And as such, it would be absurd to conclude that the participants are not going to bring their ploiticla leanings into the debate:

*****

"The IPCC is also designed to put political leaders and bureaucrats rather than scientists in control of the research project. It is a membership organization composed of governments, not scientists. The governments that created the IPCC fund it, staff it, select the scientists who get to participate, and revise and rewrite the reports after the scientists have concluded their work. Obviously, this is not how a real scientific organization operates.

"The IPCC’s first report, released in 1990, admitted that observed climate change was probably due to natural rather than human causes. However, every report since then has claimed with rising certainty that there is a “discernable human impact” on the climate and that steps must be taken to avoid a global climate crisis. There is ample evidence that this level of alarmism and asserted confidence is fueled by political considerations rather than actual science.

For example, in 1996, Dr. Frederick Seitz, one of the world’s most prominent and respected physicists, wrote in the Wall Street Journal: <2>“In my more than 60 years as a member of the American scientific community, including service as president of both the National Academy of Sciences and the American Physical Society, I have never witnessed a more disturbing corruption of the peer-review process than the events that led to this IPCC report.”
 
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