Blackberry opportunity

[goodguy1977]

Hello all,

thought i'd start a new thread about our favourite topic. I think there is a real opportunity here, but unlike some of the posters we believe this is a great spot to short the stock. Rationale is as follows:

-BBRY's financial situation continues to falter
-Most of the installed base is in the emerging markets which traditionally carry a lower margin.
-Their value added argument is weak due to lack of applications.
-They have barely 3% market share.
- The Z10 was supposed to be a market saviour, instead now it's the Q10.. then it will be something else.
- If you take out the written down inventory they sold off in the Christmas quarter, cash flow was pathetic.
- Management is watching the stock price and attempting to attack negative buy side analysis. This is a huge flag that the company is in trouble. (Check Conseco as reference)
- The shareholder base is mainly emotionally charged loyalists that are not looking at the financial position of BBRY, it's a nationalist thing or excuse my French they buy into the bullshit.
- BBRY will lose the service revenue they receive currently thus further weakening their financial position.
- Checks show that the product is not moving.
- Great opportunity to run a pair against an Apple (in our opinion Goog is starting to look fairly valued)
- A lot of money shorting BBRY is typically not retail.

If anyone has a well thought out argument please feel free to share. But for others, this is a great opportunity as we think Heinz, Misek are blowing smoke at this point. Same pattern, positive comments followed by smoke and mirrors. A month from now they will say "wait for BB11". The 4S is also a great reason why BBRY will not regain share.

Goodguy

 

[Tony2Tap]

30-35% of BBRY is already shorted. These have to be bought back.

We have already seen reports in the media from "experts" that there are issues. BBRY is questioning the reports and challenging them. It's going to be a bit of a mess for the rest of the year.

 

[goodguy1977]

30-35% of BBRY is already shorted. These have to be bought back.

We have already seen reports in the media from "experts" that there are issues. BBRY is questioning the reports and challenging them. It's going to be a bit of a mess for the rest of the year.

Hello there,

thanks for the contribution, here's the thing with the short interest. It does have to be covered, it can be covered at 15.00, 10.00, 5.00, 1.00, 0.50... I think you get my point.

As for the media reports, we actually talk to other professionals who actually put money behind their ideas. As for Heinz going after buy side research, if you are familiar with Conseco it should bother you why they are so worried about "negative" analyst reports. I'm pretty sure they aren't going to attack Miseck's report.

I appreciate your contribution but was looking for more of a fundamental reason, if not you should look at this as a possible short. I think the Q10 release in Toronto was a mistake as it sends a negative message to the rest of Canada. I don't think this management team is very good at all. Also if you notice the stock seems to rise during "positive comments or spec talk" but drifts lower when reality hits.

I still think it would be a great short, granted it was down today.

Goodguy

 

[backrubman]

....thought i'd start a new thread about our favourite topic. I think there is a real opportunity here, but unlike some of the posters we believe this is a great spot to short the stock....

I can't disagree with a single thing you say. That said, I think that many loyal BlackBerry users were waiting for the Q10 and every time a news story crosses the wire (like recently the US DoD evaluating the QNX/BB10 security) we see a pop in the price of the stock. If I was forced to make a long term trade here it would probably be biased to the down side but I think they will hang in there for sometime to come and hold on to a far less than dominant market share for quite some time. So I don't believe they are going to make a come back and they probably will eventually go away but while all of what you said is true, if death it is, it will be a slow and long and drawn out one with lots of ups and downs along the way. As they do get more then 2 products out there and reach the right level of vulnerability there is the possibility of a take over or buy out and likely at a premium due to their huge patent portfolio so anyone holding a short position could get their face ripped off.

Quite simply what I don't understand is why you are so interested in this one company as a short opportunity when:

1. It looks like they could die very slowly (there is a cost of carry to be short and you have to maintain the capital to cover).
2. There are lots of better short opportunities.
3. Derivatives are a better way to take a short position (or any position for that matter that otherwise involves "unlimited risk" as you can limit your risk).
4. Many analyst are predicting their demise but also suggesting a "short squeeze" before that happens.

Now, I suspect someone is going read this and ask (because it seems few can think for themselves these days) and ask: Ok genius, just what "better short opportunities" are there and what are they specifically? Quite simply, just look to anyone who late filing with the SEC, with each passing day they are late and still haven't filed they rise closer to the top of my list of candidates

 

[George The Curious]

Its goodguys personal mission to bring down bbry. Making money is only secondary lol.

 

[andy51]

He's losing money shorting BB so he's trying to drum up some support. What a loser. Lmao.

 

[backrubman]

Its goodguys personal mission to bring down bbry. Making money is only secondary lol.

Well I didn't want to put it that way or even say anything even slightly derogatory, he has a right to his opinion like anyone else and it even seems in some ways well considered. That said, a good news story or two (about higher than expected Q10 sales or something similar) and once the short squeeze starts there will be little to stop it. If *anything* brings it back to around the 18 handle where most of the shorts got short it will go quickly vertical as they scramble to cover (even if it is with the intent to get short again at a later date they are not going to ride it short above 18, they will cover and short at a higher price).

So with no clear or more important immediate catalyst to bring it down quickly, seems to me like a poor choice to be short unless your horizon is very long term and then you take on a lot more risk being exposed for that length of time.

He will probably turn out to be right in the end but to me there is much more low hanging fruit and easier money to be made.

 

[goodguy1977]

Hello all,

(This doesn't apply to backrubman) but it seems the CFAs, CAs, on here have very deep well thought out ideas of why a BBRY short wouldn't work. Our original thesis in getting short (in the 17s) was to pair it, that's what we do.. thus or pair was Goog... so for the CFA/CA Andy/George do your work because when you post nonsense you just look like an idiot. By the way, you never got back to me on taking the long side on a forward/futures arrangement on BBRY? We are serious and if you are in agreement with the proper collateral we can arrange legal representation to set it up.

I do respect Backrubman's thesis, we do see catalysts, financials. Unless this company can find a substitute for loss of service revenue. (unless they plan on making a ton of playbooks again, writing them off and then blowing them out at bargain basement prices)

I don't think most BBRY investors actually look at their financial statements, they are general investors who speculate. The two CFAs on here are a great example. In reality, they probably don't even invest meaningfully. Probably mutual fund guys.

But for those out there, there really is many compelling reasons to short this stock. (or use puts)

Oh and I just heard blackberry suffered an outage.

Goodguy

 

[goodguy1977]

Here's a better idea for the two CFAs. Would you be kind enough to list your reasons on why BBRY is a great value? (Besides that you own it please)

I look forward to your well thought out comprehensive answers.

Thanks

Goodguy

 

[Butler1000]

No mention of the contract with the US military I see. With means more than likely the rest of Nato to follow. And the rest of the govt contracts to follow in their wake.

 

[goodguy1977]

No mention of the contract with the US military I see. With means more than likely the rest of Nato to follow. And the rest of the govt contracts to follow in their wake.

So they already have the contracts... do the governments have a byod policy? I heard Samsung was approved today and Apple will soon be approved. Are we to assume the effect of the contracts aren't built into their financials? More detail would be appreciated.

Goodguy

 

[George The Curious]

Here's a better idea for the two CFAs. Would you be kind enough to list your reasons on why BBRY is a great value? (Besides that you own it please)

I look forward to your well thought out comprehensive answers.

Thanks

Goodguy

I never said BBRY is a great value, or own the stock. simply it's not worth the risk to short it. There are tons of other easier and higher probability trades out there. I started my trading career focusing on stocks on the spotlight as well, the kind that makes into business news headlines, Air canada, BBD-B, Global crossing, NT, Apple etc... most of them turned sour. Harder to predict the more media spotlight on the company, as they tends to misguide you by sensationalizing the story rather than just say .. hey we don't really know anything, it's anybody's guess how the stock will perform. IF they write that no one will be buying the paper.
Focusing on technicals and avoid reading too much into press releases improved my trades 100 folds. I make more money now checking technical charts 3 times a week, than when I spent hours reading news every day 10 years ago.

When I look at BBRY chart, there is nothing conclusive. its at a crossing point of a 5 year downtrend line, as well as a 6 month uptrend line, as well as a rounding bottom pattern. Like a wedge, it could go either way, most likely swing both ways with every press release, thus wiping out lots of speculators in the process. I've see too many times this kind of stocks play on people's mind. Even if you are right in the end, it takes a long time and have to ride through lots of up and downs, just not worth it while there are many other easier opportunities.

 

[goodguy1977]

I never said BBRY is a great value, or own the stock. simply it's not worth the risk to short it. There are tons of other easier and higher probability trades out there. I started my trading career focusing on stocks on the spotlight as well, the kind that makes into business news headlines, Air canada, BBD-B, Global crossing, NT, Apple etc... most of them turned sour. Harder to predict the more media spotlight on the company, as they tends to misguide you by sensationalizing the story rather than just say .. hey we don't really know anything, it's anybody's guess how the stock will perform. IF they write that no one will be buying the paper.
Focusing on technicals and avoid reading too much into press releases improved my trades 100 folds. I make more money now checking technical charts 3 times a week, than when I spent hours reading news every day 10 years ago.

When I look at BBRY chart, there is nothing conclusive. its at a crossing point of a 5 year downtrend line, as well as a 6 month uptrend line, as well as a rounding bottom pattern. Like a wedge, it could go either way, most likely swing both ways with every press release, thus wiping out lots of speculators in the process. I've see too many times this kind of stocks play on people's mind. Even if you are right in the end, it takes a long time and have to ride through lots of up and downs, just not worth it while there are many other easier opportunities.

I appreciate the time you took to write the above response. But here's the thing... you still haven't given my a fundamental reason why not to short this thing....If you watch technicals take a long view analysis of this stock.. there... as for not making money.. our strategy has actually paid off very well. Please read our trade.

I guess you don't make much money. Before you judge our motives I suggest you actually do some actual analysis.

Goodguy

 

[George The Curious]

I appreciate the time you took to write the above response. But here's the thing... you still haven't given my a fundamental reason why not to short this thing....If you watch technicals take a long view analysis of this stock.. there... as for not making money.. our strategy has actually paid off very well. Please read our trade.

I guess you don't make much money. Before you judge our motives I suggest you actually do some actual analysis.

Goodguy

ok you win. I don't make much money especially not when I have to convince a bunch of guys on an escort forum on a short position.

 

[goodguy1977]

ok you win. I don't make much money especially not when I have to convince a bunch of guys on an escort forum on a short position.

This is a place to discuss investment ideas.... you know you might want to actually contribute versus just being someone who says a lot of nothing. Ideas are ideas, it doesn't matter where they are posted, if they make sense and deserve the attention to do further research on then it's valuable. When you insult this form of expression you put yourself right there with it as you are reading my posts.

I don't think we should go beyond this. We've made money, we find some of the ideas on here useful. You obviously don't, we'd appreciate it if you would just ignore our posts as we would like to communicate with other members.

Regardless we wish you the best.

Goodguy

 

[goodguy1977]

A new negative buy side report.. guess Heinz is in contact with the OSC and SEC?

It's not looking good for the BBRY bulls folks.

Goodguy

 

[andy51]

Hi there. goodguy lol

New BB5 phone from Blackberry for emerging markets like Latin America, Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia.

I hope your research knows about this.

http://www.engadget.com/2013/05/14/blackberry-q5-announced-bb10-qwerty/

 

[goodguy1977]

Hi there. goodguy lol

New BB5 phone from Blackberry for emerging markets like Latin America, Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia.

I hope your research knows about this.

http://www.engadget.com/2013/05/14/blackberry-q5-announced-bb10-qwerty/

Hello there Andy!

We do, interesting they would launch this phone so quickly, I guess the financial models out there will have to adjusted. The Q5 should have lower profit margins than the Q10 and Z10.

We are happy about the opening of BBM to Ios and Android users.

Oh and Google up to almost 900.... BBRY down 4%, we are very happy about that.

But again I welcome any fundamental debate on why we should cover on BBRY?

Thanks

Goodguy

 

[goodguy1977]

He's losing money shorting BB so he's trying to drum up some support. What a loser. Lmao.

:thumb:

 

[goodguy1977]

Hi there. goodguy lol

New BB5 phone from Blackberry for emerging markets like Latin America, Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia.

I hope your research knows about this.

http://www.engadget.com/2013/05/14/blackberry-q5-announced-bb10-qwerty/

We covered.. lol.. before the BBRY bulls throw a party it was a very profitable trade (GOOG went from 700s to low 900s while BBRY went from the 17's to the 14's)

However if it runs up again and we see an attractive pair, we will short it again.

So for all you bulls we did cover, however we didn't get squeezed.

Happy crash day!

Goodguy