Hello my friend,
I appreciate your feedback though I'd wish you put it differently rather than call me an idiot but I think that reflects more on you than me. I actually appreciate reading posts from folks like yourself. So if you don't mind me asking cause I'd like to learn from your wisdom, if the future is unknown and likely very volatile how do you pick stocks with predictable patterns ? Do you use TA? You must run alot of money with your wisdom and it all must be fantastic since it's risk adjusted and you don't even need to hedge!
Please open this new and wonderful world of wisdom to me.
Goodguy
Sorry if I seemed a little hostile, did not mean to. Just frustrated to see people get excited over a stock simply because news people keep talking about it. You should be only paying attention to stocks with higher probability of trading success. And following the latest media headline won't help you a bit. It might be interesting to read about the drama going on that's moving the stock, but it will not help you predict its future. Just because you've heard about it a lot on the news, and thought about it a lot in your heard, and have a hunch what's going to happen next, does not mean a jack shit! I say this because from 15 years of trading experience I've made more mistakes trying to apply my gut feeling to some unfolding drama on stocks, than any other errors, and always so much more emotionally draining because you were so convinced from socially, technologically, or morally, a certain company or stock should be successful or should fail. In the end, none of that stuff matters if you lose money.
Trying to predict the outcome of a news is not fundamental analysis, it's speculation.
I mainly use TA, but I respect those who can do proper fundamental analysis too. It's just TA sources comes much more easily and reliably and I personally believe TA is superior than fundamental. However, fundamnetal is still way better than speculation. Asking questions like "How do you FEEEL about future of blackberry.." is speculation. pure speculation mentality... I also cringe when I see people who will only buy stocks in one geographic region or only one industry sector simply because he FEEEELs more comfortable, or certain news headline says investing in Canada or Australia is safer than the USA or Europe, therefore all stocks in Canada / Australia must be superior to USA and Europe. etc. etc.. lots of examples. A simple market screening will reveal more than 6000 stocks listed in US market with cap greater than 200M, which is my minimal market cap and liquidity for trading. Any stocks lower than that tends to have a lot of randomness than patterns.
Okay, I won't go into specifics about my trading strategy, because if I did, those who hate or don't understand TA will try to find counter examples to say I am wrong. No strategy or set of stocks is perfectly predictable so you can always find counter examples to "disprove" me. So I will show the common sense that so many people seem to miss.
Just look at the price charts... of many stocks...
I know there are TA-ist trying to do highly complex math with options and apply neural network algorithms all that. I'm not into that. They are trying to make perfect predicting. They might be better than me, but you really don't need to be that complicated to see the obvious things in the market.
Look at the charts again... any stock charts.. look at at least 50 stocks over different time frames, from 1 day chart to 20 year chart (or max time frame available).
Some stocks you will find completely random. Some stocks you will find (at least in some segment of time), there are VERY SIMPLE patterns, like straight like uptrend, down trend, sideways. Yup, that's all I'm looking for, straight trendlines. Screen for this pattern over 6000 US stocks, you find lots an lots of gems... There are programs to do this, so you only need to verify a dozen or so stocks visually.
Then, only then you read about their news. The more stable the pattern the stock has, the less news, and less exciting it is. There is a saying in the market. No news is good news.
But there is no doubt about it, they are firing on all cylinders lately. BBRY... only time will tell.
