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Apple double miss (rev and eps) temporary or macro finally catching up?

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goodguy1977

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So what do you think folks?

I've been trading this stock for a while now. It can make you feel smart, feel stupid or just plain confused. With the double miss, Mr. Cook and company are stating the miss on rumours about the 5, and just the consumer holding back for the 5. It's interesting though because I have followed this company for a while and they seem alot more defensive towards the street in the past. Could this really be a macro issue? Has Apple become so big that macroeconomic factors finally slowed the company down?

I know the whole quant arguement, however just keep in mind that eps can fall as fast as it can rise. And really, this company is not the same company as the Jobs area Apple. Alot of "upgrades" and not enough innovation.

It's also a very crowded trade and we all know how that turns out.

GG
 
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danibbler

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I've followed AAPL for almost 20 years now, longer as a buyer of their products. Frankly, I thought that this past quarter would be a snoozer. They hit their own numbers but not the Street's. In the past, destroying the Street's numbers did not affect them too much on the upside so...

As for blaming the iPhone 4S' slowing sales on the upcoming 5? It happens, it always happens. Although I can't say it should or should not have happened this much.

In any case, if you're a long-term investor, I would not worry too much about AAPL just yet. I give it a few more years of market leading innovation and, then, it will probably be a good dividend stock for another 20 years.
 
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danibbler

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LOL! Yeah, one week and it's up by over US$20. I'm pretty sure it's going to rise from this point on until after Sept. 12. Then, all bets are off.
 
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danibbler

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Hope you're not selling because I strongly suspect AAPL to hit over $700 before Sept. 12.

If it can keep it above $700, I would look for a bigger dividend next year.
 
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onthebottom

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Jan 10, 2002
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Hit an all time high today....
 
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kaempferrand

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MONTREAL!!!
The recent draw down is because folks are holding out for iPhone 5, what is the next installment for the iPad and the iPod Touch. Yet not so much for the iPod Touch though but it does have its fair share of fans. Me being one of them since having the Touch has saved me tons of money for my cell phone bill. I always wanted a tablet but just found them to be too clunky. Looked at the Android devices and found the 7 inch very appealing but the screen is nothing compared to the Retina Display.

Plus also the iPhone 5 is the final phone from the late Steve Jobs. With all the hype and rumors flying around people are definitely going to hold out and not going to purchase the 4 and 4S. Could AAPL hit $800/$900 as many analyst proclaim? Possible but prepare to protect your backside if this forecast does not hold true. When the fundamentals and price action prove other wise it is still a prediction.
 
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goodguy1977

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Most likely out literally when the 5 is introduced. From a risk/reward ratio i think that's the best time to sell.

This is definately a trading stock.

GG
 
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danibbler

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goodguy1977 said:
This is definately a trading stock.
Click to expand...
Nah, it's a buy-and-hold stock. The market treats AAPL in a most perverse fashion. Years ago, I told everyone to get out when Jobs died. Nothing happened. In fact, the stock took off on a hundred dollar tear.

Others have said to buy on rumor and sell on news. Well, that may or may not work out for you because the majority of the time it happens...then, there are those other times when you get whacked.

Safest is just to buy at a good price (anything under $600 now it seems) and hold.
 
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goodguy1977

Member
Jan 5, 2011
791
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danibbler said:
Nah, it's a buy-and-hold stock. The market treats AAPL in a most perverse fashion. Years ago, I told everyone to get out when Jobs died. Nothing happened. In fact, the stock took off on a hundred dollar tear.

Others have said to buy on rumor and sell on news. Well, that may or may not work out for you because the majority of the time it happens...then, there are those other times when you get whacked.

Safest is just to buy at a good price (anything under $600 now it seems) and hold.
Click to expand...
Hi there, i'd respectfully disagree. The company is starting to show that that it's really just becoming just big of a company that macro economic factors will slow it's growth down. It's also the one of the most widely held by "hot" money. IE hedge funds and swing traders, once this thing starts to break down there will be a flood of selling and usually the retail investor listens to the sell side research which usually slap the "hold" label at the very end. Thus trading this thing is much safer. It's also involved in the tech industry where leadership changes frequently, especially in hardware. And fundamentally this is a different company, the loss of Jobs is a big fundamental change that is making it's way through. Not showing yet in numbers but the culture of Apple has changed. So i'll ride this stock but really it's a trading vehicle, buy and hold at your own risk but if you bought and held Msft at the top you would have regretted it. And if you did that with Csco or Orcl... OUCH!

Happy trading

GG
 
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danibbler

Active member
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As I said before, I think that AAPL has a few more years left in it before it turns into a MSFT. I just think that this is a very dangerous stock to trade around with.
 
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nottyboi

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May 14, 2008
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They have now been forced to react on two major product areas by the Galaxy S3 and the Nexus 7. Rumors are the new iphone will have a 4 inch screen BIG MISTAKE. Samsung has it 100% correct. Now there is word the MSFT Surface tablet will be $199....
 
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danibbler

Active member
Feb 2, 2002
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Toronto
nottyboi said:
They have now been forced to react on two major product areas by the Galaxy S3 and the Nexus 7. Rumors are the new iphone will have a 4 inch screen BIG MISTAKE. Samsung has it 100% correct. Now there is word the MSFT Surface tablet will be $199....
Click to expand...
Forced to react? Will you say that the next hardware intros by Samsung and Google are "reactions" to what Apple comes out with in September? I doubt it. (Hope that wasn't too subtle for you...)

As for the Surface's price...the $199 was a rumor and has already been discounted.
 
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goodguy1977

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Jan 5, 2011
791
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Wow, Apple's market position has just drastically improved. Plus add another billion plus into the pile.

GG
 
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goodguy1977

Member
Jan 5, 2011
791
0
16
Hello everyone,

Apple's stock has had a nice pullback... i'm getting very interested again as sentiment has changed on this stock. What do you all think out there? I'm looking to trade this thing, as in my previous posts.

Thanks

Goodguy
 
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