the US is the market leader and can influence supply and TONE of the market .... i understand the market structure perfectly Asterix. I also know a fair bit about speculation and the nature of "carry trades" / trend lines .... You keep making my case without realizing it. When you say the US produces a small amount of the worlds oil supply TODAY, THAT is a major reason why prices are HIGH TODAY because they produce a small amount. They can do a lot more .... or at least give the perception that they will .
Oil companies too have an incentive to keep prices high, but since the resources are GRANTED by the government in return for royalties and other payments they can dictate the terms and conditions under which oil companies can explore and produce and refine and transport the resources. They can put fast triggers on the leases they offer so oil co's can't sit on exploration zones .. lots of things to do to add supply.
Newts plan is to explore everywhere for oil, refine more, produce more... IN ORDER TO CHANGE THE TONE OF THE GLOBAL MARKETS VIEW OF THE USA FROM A COUNTRY THAT WONT EXPLORE FOR ITS OWN OIL TO A COUNTRY THAT WILL ....... because he believes there is a HUGE underlying supply available, just like there is now being proven to be a lot more in nat gas which has dropped the price of natgas by 75% (w an 11% increase in actual production) So markets aren't linear .... they respond differently depending on the underlying fundamentals and technicals ....