It seems a foregone conclusion that Iggy will be delivering a resignation speech on Monday if the NDP surge plays out and the Libs lose seats. But what if Harpo delivers another minority? Will an identical number of seats suffice to keep the rank and file satisfied? Suppose he loses 5, 10, 15 seats?
Is Harpo done as the Con leader if he loses seats on Monday?
- Thread starter rafterman
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I haven't seen many opinion pieces on that. The Harper Conservatives seem to stifle dissension (or legitimate debate on leaders' merit) so who know if the party plans to dump him? Who are the likely successors?
I think 3 minority governments tells you the guy can't ddeliver a majority.
The Liberals seem to have a dearth of strong leaders too. Stephane Dion, Ignatieff...who's next, Bob Rae?
My real question is why do the parties keep picking uncharismatic robots or swkward wierdos to represent them and contend to be leaders of a country?
I think 3 minority governments tells you the guy can't ddeliver a majority.
The Liberals seem to have a dearth of strong leaders too. Stephane Dion, Ignatieff...who's next, Bob Rae?
My real question is why do the parties keep picking uncharismatic robots or swkward wierdos to represent them and contend to be leaders of a country?
They pick who they pick, and we vote our choices of a bad lot. The real question is: Why do they pick guys who spend their time re-fighting the election they lost instead of working constructively with the results?
The Government of Canada is 308 MPs, a Senate and a GG, not the leader of the largest party-bloc. And if that is not even a majority there is a very good reason we call it a rump.
The Government of Canada is 308 MPs, a Senate and a GG, not the leader of the largest party-bloc. And if that is not even a majority there is a very good reason we call it a rump.
I think there are a number of things that could be in play, depending on how things look on Tuesday:
-- The Tories. Even if Harper loses seats, he'll probably get to decide his own timing. Will he want to stick around? That may depend on what the future looks like, based on what happens to the Liberals.
-- The Liberals. Call me crazy, but if Iggy wins his seat in Etobicoke-Lakeshore and doesn't immediately resign, the Liberals may want to stick with him -- even if they have lost seats. There is no heir apparent, and changing leaders doesn't seem to be a recipe for improvement. They may want to give Iggy a chance to grow as a politician and focus on the real problem, which is establishing the party as something different from the Conservatives (in substance, rather than just rhetoric).
-- The NDP and the Liberals. If the two parties have more combined seats than the Tories, they should think about entering an accord and seeking to form government, even if it is headed by Layton.
The best way to hurt the effectiveness of the Tories is to knock them out of power. Parties that aren't in power usually have to find a new leader, have more difficulties raising money, etc. Plus, Harper is threatening to make good on his pledge to scrap the federal subsidies to political parties, so the opposition has good reason to want to bounce the Tories out.
-- The Tories. Even if Harper loses seats, he'll probably get to decide his own timing. Will he want to stick around? That may depend on what the future looks like, based on what happens to the Liberals.
-- The Liberals. Call me crazy, but if Iggy wins his seat in Etobicoke-Lakeshore and doesn't immediately resign, the Liberals may want to stick with him -- even if they have lost seats. There is no heir apparent, and changing leaders doesn't seem to be a recipe for improvement. They may want to give Iggy a chance to grow as a politician and focus on the real problem, which is establishing the party as something different from the Conservatives (in substance, rather than just rhetoric).
-- The NDP and the Liberals. If the two parties have more combined seats than the Tories, they should think about entering an accord and seeking to form government, even if it is headed by Layton.
The best way to hurt the effectiveness of the Tories is to knock them out of power. Parties that aren't in power usually have to find a new leader, have more difficulties raising money, etc. Plus, Harper is threatening to make good on his pledge to scrap the federal subsidies to political parties, so the opposition has good reason to want to bounce the Tories out.
Canada votes in regional blocks. The Tories dominate the West, have nada in Quebec and have been unable to crack the larger cities. The good - and bad - about Harper politically is that he can hold the existing strongholds effortlessly, but is unable to expand them. This is because he is closely identified with Alberta and small town western viewpoints and is unattractive to Toronto and Montreal. And Quebec has always hated the Tories for its own idiosyncratic, anal reasons.
So Harper is still a reasonably good brand. He may or may not want to stand aside and let a Torontonian or Vancouverite step in as leader or heir apparent to make the party more broadly attractive.
The Liberals are fucked. Without Quebec, they are the protest party of Southern Ontario, nothing more. Iggy is incapable of expanding that and might even lose it to a Layton led coalition. So Iggy is doomed. The question is whether the Libs have anyone else presentable as leader.
So Harper is still a reasonably good brand. He may or may not want to stand aside and let a Torontonian or Vancouverite step in as leader or heir apparent to make the party more broadly attractive.
The Liberals are fucked. Without Quebec, they are the protest party of Southern Ontario, nothing more. Iggy is incapable of expanding that and might even lose it to a Layton led coalition. So Iggy is doomed. The question is whether the Libs have anyone else presentable as leader.
No, sorry. 308 MPs and a Senate give you a Parliament of Canada.
The Government of Canada is a creation of the Monarch (the Crown), and is a completely separate entity from Parliament, although it is usually stocked with MPs from the party most well represented in the House of Commons.
The Government is impaired if it does not hold the Confidence of the House of Commons, and will resign if it cannot regain the Confidence of the House (e.g. through an election).
Despite the oversimplification they teach in Grade 9, the Government does not "fall" if the House votes non-confidence: the House may be dissolved, but the Government does not fall.
Anynym, you're close, but missing one additional point. If the budget is defeated early in the new Parliament it is not necessarily the case that Parliament will be dissolved. The GG can go and see if there is someone else who could win the confidence of the House, and if so, appoint that person to be Prime Minister.
It's just a tradition that the leader of the largest party gets first crack at that, but if they can't do it, and someone else can do it, then that someone else will become PM.
It's quite possible that the BQ and the NDP will consistently vote against any budget in the new Parliament that does not implement their campaign platform. That will leave the Liberals--if they even have enough seats--to decide whether to prop up the Conservatives. The Conservatives will have to make a pretty sweet deal with the Liberals to win their support.
It remains to be seen whether the Liberals will even have enough seats to prop up the Conservatives, or whether BQ+NDP by itself would be enough to defeat the government.
It'll be interesting in any case.
It's just a tradition that the leader of the largest party gets first crack at that, but if they can't do it, and someone else can do it, then that someone else will become PM.
It's quite possible that the BQ and the NDP will consistently vote against any budget in the new Parliament that does not implement their campaign platform. That will leave the Liberals--if they even have enough seats--to decide whether to prop up the Conservatives. The Conservatives will have to make a pretty sweet deal with the Liberals to win their support.
It remains to be seen whether the Liberals will even have enough seats to prop up the Conservatives, or whether BQ+NDP by itself would be enough to defeat the government.
It'll be interesting in any case.
In Britain they use the term HM Government to refer to the Ministers of the Crown, including, the first minister, which makes the distinction nicely. While they are Her Majesty's Government, the government of the nation is The Crown, and Parliament together, neither having power without the other, and in which the Cabinet is an 'optional' utility-body that can be adjusted, expanded, shrunk or filled with appointees of whatever political stripe as The Commons is willing to support.
As you say, lacking that support, the House may be dissolved, but it also may not be dissolved, if another collection of Cabinet appointments can secure the support of the House. Making it clear that the national government is Parliament, since any particular Government, be it the Harper Government or not, must answer to it.
Ha ha ha yeah I have to agree with that assessment of Iggy's current position. The bell is tolling, I just can't see him not resigning on Monday maybe not effective immediately but he has to step down or he will be pushed.
Time to return to the well......ha ha ha Justin Trudeau.
If Harper loses seats I think he's out. If he gains seats he may be able to hang on a little longer.
There's got to be growing dissatisfaction in the Conservative party that Harper isn't able to seal the deal. Sooner or later they're going to have to go looking for a moderate who can actually win in Ontario and Quebec in large enough numbers to turn the Conservatives into a true national party. They got halfway there under Harper but he seems stuck and appears to be unable to make further progress.
There's got to be growing dissatisfaction in the Conservative party that Harper isn't able to seal the deal. Sooner or later they're going to have to go looking for a moderate who can actually win in Ontario and Quebec in large enough numbers to turn the Conservatives into a true national party. They got halfway there under Harper but he seems stuck and appears to be unable to make further progress.
They need a leader who isn't associated with the "Reform" side of the party as in a true "Progressive" Conservative.
