October Smashes Temperature Records Practically Guaranteeing 2015 Will Be HottestYear

AK-47 said:

Actually Frankfoot, a smart person questions government and scientists who claim to know everything (not that I'm a truther btw, lets get that straight)

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Sure, up to a point.
I'll question some medical treatments but I'm also not going to refuse blood transfusions, vaccines or antibiotics for an infection.

Climate change research is like that, its got the backing of 97% of climatologists the world over, the backing of almost every legit scientific organization and the backing of very conservative industries like the insurance industry. And the ones who are pushing the contrary position are all tied back to those who financially stand to lose the most, the fossil fuel industries.

As for claiming that the IPCC 'claim to know all', all you have to do is read the reports to understand that they are very clear about what they know and what they don't. They give uncertainty percentages, ranges of outcomes and references to all the research and data.

Frankfooter said:

Climate change research is like that, its got the backing of 97% of climatologists the world over, the backing of almost every legit scientific organization and the backing of very conservative industries like the insurance industry

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That still doesnt make them right, and it still doesnt mean you shouldnt question them

AK-47 said:

That still doesnt make them right, and it still doesnt mean you shouldnt question them

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No, but a quick look at the globes temperature and the IPCC's projection should make you look seriously at their claims.

Frankfooter said:

No, but a quick look at the globes temperature and the IPCC's projection should make you look seriously at their claims

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But how do you know that temperature rise isnt part of a normal fluctuation?? Or how do you know global warming isnt just a small part of that rise, and the rest is normal fluctuation?? There have been much greater temperature increases in the past without any human CO2 interferences.

From what I seen so far (and I'm just common sense) I dont think the warming is as severe as they predicted it would be

AK-47 said:

But how do you know that temperature rise isnt part of a normal fluctuation??

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There hasn't been a 'normal fluctuation' of this scale and speed in 10's of thousands of years at a minimum, first.

Second, its pretty easy to sort out the influences on the climate that would add or detract to the global temperature, with CO2 raising it and things like volcanic action or solar changes (very slight influence) in the models used. Only by adding in the CO2 we are putting into the atmosphere (along with a few other human actions) does the change happening to the world make sense.

There is no alternate theory that holds water, is the third reason.

As a challenge or example, why do you think arctic sea ice and glaciers all over the world have been melting?
Give us your alternate explanation with some research to back it up.

Frankfooter said:

As a challenge or example, why do you think arctic sea ice and glaciers all over the world have been melting?
Give us your alternate explanation with some research to back it up

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I dont know, maybe because of global warming, or maybe its a natural action/retraction process thats been going on for thousands of years.

Antarctica right now is gaining ice, maybe for the same reason??
I remember this which made me LOL at the time: http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-25833307

Frankfooter said:

There hasn't been a 'normal fluctuation' of this scale and speed in 10's of thousands of years at a minimum

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Thats actually not true. Temperatures have been massively fluctuating since last glacial period:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_oscillation

AK-47 said:

I dont know, maybe because of global warming, or maybe its a natural action/retraction process thats been going on for thousands of years.

Antarctica right now is gaining ice, maybe for the same reason??

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Only parts of Antarctica are gaining ice, there are also massive glaciers that are in the process of melting as well.

But take some time, see if you can find a real alternate theory to explain glacial and polar melt.
And if your answer really is 'its natural', explain why its natural, what is causing it.

AK-47 said:

Thats actually not true. Temperatures have been massively fluctuating since last glacial period:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_oscillation

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If you follow the black line, you'll notice that it peaks around 0.5ºC around 8,000 years ago and ends at 2004 around 0.5ºC.
2015 is the first year to hit over 1.ºC, according to the wiki chart in over 10,000 years.

NASA has a good chart.

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_15/

And this chart shows why, CO2 levels are higher then they've been in 650,000 years.
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

Frankfooter said:

But take some time, see if you can find a real alternate theory to explain glacial and polar melt.
And if your answer really is 'its natural', explain why its natural, what is causing it

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Yes, its something called Solar Activity. This to me makes much more sense than the global warming theory.
Or perhaps its a combination of the 2, but with global warming assuming a much small role within the solar activity theory:

http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/solact.html

Let me explain.

So lets say earth would warm .05 degrees per decade with human interference and adding CO2.
But now lets add solar activity in the mix and suddenly earth is warming much more than that (perhaps .10 degrees or even more).

So now you have distorted statistics, because you dont know which is causing which when it comes to earth getting warmer

AK-47 said:

Yes, its something called Solar Activity. This to me makes much more sense than the global warming theory.
Or perhaps its a combination of the 2, but with global warming assuming a much small role within the solar activity theory:

http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/solact.html

Let me explain.

So lets say earth would warm .05 degrees per decade with human interference and adding CO2.
But now lets add solar activity in the mix and suddenly earth is warming much more than that (perhaps .10 degrees or even more).

So now you have distorted statistics, because you dont know which is causing which when it comes to earth getting warmer

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But they can and do calculate solar activity, its included in the IPCC reports.
Its impact is generally quite a bit smaller then the impact of the CO2 we've put in the atmosphere and in fact the only effect we've felt from solar activity is a slight cooling.

There's a panel on the NASA page that covers it clearly.
http://climate.nasa.gov/causes/

Frankfooter said:

But they can and do calculate solar activity, its included in the IPCC reports.
Its impact is generally quite a bit smaller then the impact of the CO2 we've put in the atmosphere and in fact the only effect we've felt from solar activity is a slight cooling.

There's a panel on the NASA page that covers it clearly.
http://climate.nasa.gov/causes/

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Okay, so lets put all this science behind us and lets start using a bit of common sense.

Have Toronto winters gotten any warmer last 20 years?? If so, I havent noticed it.
Last winter was horrific, one of the coldest winters in last 20 years.

This fall of 2015 so far has been great, I grant you that. Nice and warm
But then how do you explain our extraordinary cold winter of 2014???

Looking back on last 20 years or so since I lived in Toronto not very much has changed at all.
I'm very sorry, but global warming has been IMO a complete non-event.

It reminds me of the Y2K bug, also a non-event


P.S. Having said that, we need to get off oil. Just to piss off the Arabs for one thing :biggrin1:

Frankfooter said:

But they can and do calculate solar activity, its included in the IPCC reports.
Its impact is generally quite a bit smaller then the impact of the CO2 we've put in the atmosphere and in fact the only effect we've felt from solar activity is a slight cooling.

There's a panel on the NASA page that covers it clearly.
http://climate.nasa.gov/causes/

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The minute you try to say that the Sun isn't the major factor in the Earth's weather conditions, is when you really look foolish.

Seriously.

Butler1000 said:

The minute you try to say that the Sun isn't the major factor in the Earth's weather conditions, is when you really look foolish.

Seriously

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He's actually partially right, the Sun is a major factor, its not just the ONLY factor

His reputation precedes him

Frankfooter said:

You really need to get your story straight.
Some days you claim there is an 'ulterior motive', some days you claim that its the funders that are requesting results, some days you claim that they are in it for the massive amounts of cash in climate change research and today you seem to be claiming that they only change the records, not their projections.

Its really quite a mess, this conspiracy theory of yours.
You make the 9/11 truther's look positively legit in comparison.

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There is ONLY one statement in this post of BULL SHIT,...that isn't a lie,...

And that one is obvious.

FAST

AK-47 said:

Yes, its something called Solar Activity. ...

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Solar activity has been all but rejected as a major driver of the current temperature trends. The 2010-2012 period should have shown a significant difference according to the solar activity proponents yet they actuality shows something like a 1% correlation IIRC. One of the few people still pushing it's impact has described his work as "deliverables" for oil companies.

AK-47 said:

Okay, so lets put all this science behind us and lets start using a bit of common sense.

Have Toronto winters gotten any warmer last 20 years?? ....

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You are confusing weather with climate.

Butler1000 said:

The minute you try to say that the Sun isn't the major factor in the Earth's weather conditions, is when you really look foolish.

Seriously.

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From the NASA page linked above.

How do we know that changes in the sun aren’t to blame for current global warming trends?
Since 1978, a series of satellite instruments have measured the energy output of the sun directly. The satellite data show a very slight drop in solar irradiance (which is a measure of the amount of energy the sun gives off) over this time period. So the sun doesn't appear to be responsible for the warming trend observed over the past 30 years.


Longer-term estimates of solar irradiance have been made using sunspot records and other so-called “proxy indicators,” such as the amount of carbon in tree rings. The most recent analyses of these proxies indicate that solar irradiance changes cannot plausibly account for more than 10 percent of the 20th century’s warming.2

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The minute you spout out opinions without anything backing them up, you show that you are foolish.

FAST said:

There is ONLY one statement in this post of BULL SHIT,...that isn't a lie,...

And that one is obvious.

FAST

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Ok, why don't you finally clarify what your conspiracy theory really is?
Its your theory, let it out.

Frankfooter said:

You are confusing weather with climate

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No, not when its taken over a period of 20 years