Global Warming. Fact or grossly exaggerated??

AK-47 said:

Whatever you wanna call it, sweetheart.
Give us the the weather report for the summer of 2014 in Toronto.

Will it be normal temperatures, colder or warmer??
I'll even give you 1 degree margin of error, because God knows you're probably gonna need it.

Are you gonna answer the question this time, or you gonna be dodgy groggy again??

Click to expand...

Wow, one degree. Aren't you magnanimous. That means generous, no need to look it up. He's already said it would be a guess. Even the pros aren't asked for that kind of accuracy. You really show how little you do know.

Don't get all pissy about others not answering. You still haven't clarified what the X and Y axis are in posts 1280 and 1282. That's kind of important for them to make any sense. Was that info which was going to POON Groggy in 1275?

Moviefan-2 said:

According to the IPCC, there was no statistically significant change at all in the 15-year period from 1998 to 2012, despite the fact there were significant increases in man-made CO2.

Click to expand...

Cherry picking.
If you pick the 15 year period starting from 1996 it looks just as they predicted.
If you pick from 2000 to now its just as they predicted.

Your argument is a very tired one note samba.
Its all based on one cherry picked set of dates.
Lame as ass.


Meanwhile, how do you answer to this:

"In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans," the final report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will say.

Some parts of the world could soon be at a tipping point. For others, that tipping point has already arrived. "Both warm water coral reef and Arctic ecosystems are already experiencing irreversible regime shifts," the approved version of the report will say.

Click to expand...

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/28/ipcc-report-climate-change-report-human-natural-systems

AK-47 said:

Whatever you wanna call it, sweetheart.
Give us the the weather report for the summer of 2014 in Toronto.

Click to expand...

Whoops.
That's off topic.
We're discussing climate change on this thread.
Sorry you still can't tell the difference.

AK-47 said:

Gee, I must have missed that prediction. Could you please post it again, or post the link??


Apparently you don't, because I had to explain to you what short-term climate forecasts were. They are not weather forecasts. Weather forecasts are usually up to 15 days long. A short-term climate forecast is taken over a few months (usually 1 or more seasons, or a year or 2).

In this case all I ask from groggy is a short-term climate forecast for 2014 Toronto summer, which he still hasnt answered yet.

So lets say (for example) the average temperature for Toronto in summer is 20.5 degrees, I want groggy to tell me if in 2015 we'll be below, about normal or above 20.5 degrees.

Heck, I'll even give him a plus/minus 1 degree margin of error. Thats only fair.

So whadda you say groggy??!!

Click to expand...

AK-47 said:

Whatever you wanna call it, sweetheart.
Give us the the weather report for the summer of 2014 in Toronto.

Will it be normal temperatures, colder or warmer??
I'll even give you 1 degree margin of error, because God knows you're probably gonna need it.

Are you gonna answer the question this time, or you gonna be dodgy groggy again??

Click to expand...

groggy said:

Whoops.
That's off topic.
We're discussing climate change on this thread.
Sorry you still can't tell the difference.

Click to expand...

AK certainly can't keep it straight. He can't even keep the two concepts separate. His own words make that perfectly clear. I wonder when he's returning to Kenora.

AK-47 said:

LoL

Click to expand...

You can try and laugh it off all you want, but your own words make it crystal clear you aren't as knowledgable as you think you are.

AK-47 said:

Dodge of question noted

Click to expand...

No, its one of the many basic failings you exhibit on this thread.
The failure to differentiate between climate change and weather.

AK-47 said:

Dumbrock's facebook pic:

Click to expand...

You can post selfies from your family album all you want, but your posted words make it quite clear you can't keep facts straight for even a day and your knowledge base is lacking.

FYI, I don't have a Facebook page. Another error on your part.

groggy said:

Cherry picking.
If you pick the 15 year period starting from 1996 it looks just as they predicted.

Click to expand...

Wrong again.

Look at the footnotes at the bottom of Page 5 of the AR5 Summary for Policy Makers:

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf

The IPCC says the warming for the 15-year period starting in 1996 was only 0.14 degrees Celsius per decade. But the IPCC predicted in 1990 that we would see increases of 0.3 degrees Celsius per decade.

Even the IPCC's significantly reduced prediction of 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade (the prediction from the 1995 report onward) is still wrong if you use 1996 as your starting point.

Moviefan-2 said:

Wrong again.

Look at the footnotes at the bottom of Page 5 of the AR5 Summary for Policy Makers:

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf

The IPCC says the warming for the 15-year period starting in 1996 was only 0.14 degrees Celsius per decade. But the IPCC predicted in 1990 that we would see increases of 0.3 degrees Celsius per decade.

Even the IPCC's significantly reduced prediction of 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade (the prediction from the 1995 report onward) is still wrong if you use 1996 as your starting point.

Click to expand...

You actually know the difference between 0.14°C and 0.3°C? It's really really really small, Gimme a break. Talk about grasping at straws. Let's be pleased it only rose that much.

Moviefan-2 said:

Wrong again.

Look at the footnotes at the bottom of Page 5 of the AR5 Summary for Policy Makers:

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf

The IPCC says the warming for the 15-year period starting in 1996 was only 0.14 degrees Celsius per decade. But the IPCC predicted in 1990 that we would see increases of 0.3 degrees Celsius per decade.

Even the IPCC's significantly reduced prediction of 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade (the prediction from the 1995 report onward) is still wrong if you use 1996 as your starting point.

Click to expand...

Thanks for confirming that your argument is based on cherry picking.

First, the 0.3º C argument is false, that was the highest case scenario.
Second, the 0.14ºC is well within their prediction range.

Here you go, check the difference in temperature anomaly from 1996 to 2013, its about 0.4ºC on this chart, right about where the IPCC predicted it would be.


Now that we've established that your only argument is based around cherry picking it should be time to move on.

groggy said:

Thanks for confirming that your argument is based on cherry picking.

First, the 0.3º C argument is false, that was the highest case scenario.

Click to expand...

Wrong again. The highest-case scenario in the 1990 report was 0.5 degrees Celsius per decade.

First page of the executive summary: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_spm.pdf

Furthermore, the IPCC revised its prediction in subsequent reports to 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade.

If you want to use June 2013 as an end point, that's fine with me. Let's compare that with 2003 on your chart.

Well, look at what we have here: the exact same temperature in 2003 and June 2013 (in both years, the reported temperature is 0.3 degrees Celsius higher than 1981). Furthermore, the 13-month running average in both years only shows an increase of about 0.05 degrees Celsius.

Moviefan-2 said:

If you want to use June 2013 as an end point, that's fine with me. Let's compare that with 2003 on your chart.

Click to expand...

More cherry picking.
But if you want to play that game lets have some fun.

1993-1998 = 0.7ºC over 5 years!!!!!!

2008-2010 = 0.4ºC over 2 years!!!!!


See how easy it is?

groggy said:

More cherry picking.
But if you want to play that game lets have some fun.

1993-1998 = 0.7ºC over 5 years!!!!!!

2008-2010 = 0.4ºC over 2 years!!!!!


See how easy it is?

Click to expand...

So let's stick with the results reported by the IPCC.

And the results reported in the IPCC's AR5 report show that the IPCC's predictions were spectacularly wrong.

Moviefan-2 said:

So let's stick with the results reported by the IPCC.

And the results reported in the IPCC's AR5 report show that the IPCC's predictions were spectacularly wrong.

Click to expand...

Glad to hear you are abandoning the cherry picking argument.
Then lets start with this chart from the summary AR5.


and add in this chart:



Both of those show a rise in surface temperature that's very close to 0.2ºC from 1990 to the present.
Spectacularly accurate.

whether or not you believe gw is real you can't deny the growing populations, the problems we will have related to limited resources, the destruction plant and animal habitats, and the threats of political unrest.

in the long term we are fucked.

but its not really a problem as......... most of the idiots are going to die of heart disease anyways.

the people who are relying on others to come up with a solution are typical of the north American apathy that we see today. my hats off to people around the world willing to take to the streets for what they believe in. I am no better and part of the problem. we are too busy liking things on facebook and having anonymous conversations on forums.

groggy said:

More cherry picking.
But if you want to play that game lets have some fun.

1993-1998 = 0.7ºC over 5 years!!!!!!

2008-2010 = 0.4ºC over 2 years!!!!!


See how easy it is?

Click to expand...

that might not seem like a lot but some ecosystems depend on a certain temp range and if you keep nudging up the temp it could collapse and what replaces it might not be as desirable

groggy said:

Both of those show a rise in surface temperature that's very close to 0.2ºC from 1990 to the present.

Click to expand...

Unbelievable. We have confronted these challenges before -- either you don't know what year this is, or you don't know what a "decade" is.

Let me help you. This is 2014 (not 2001), and a decade is 10 years.

You're correct when you say the temperature has increased about 0.2 degrees Celsius from 1990 to now.

However, that only represents an average change of 0.1 degrees Celsius per decade. The IPCC predicted 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade, or 0.4 degrees over 20 years.