S
I'm not playing the markets, per se, but the good old RRSP mutual fund took a six G hit....and I'm afraid to open my company pension statement....I was heavy into US equities.....
My investments are mostly in oil stocks, and I don't have to remind anyone where those prices have been going this week...
Still, not worth getting an ulcer over. I have my good health, family to spend Thanksgiving with, good food on my/our plate, and future SP visits to look forward to. So if my worth on paper is 30% less than it ws in June, well, crap happens...but I'm not losing sleep over it.
Still, not worth getting an ulcer over. I have my good health, family to spend Thanksgiving with, good food on my/our plate, and future SP visits to look forward to. So if my worth on paper is 30% less than it ws in June, well, crap happens...but I'm not losing sleep over it.
Asset allocation (ie split between stocks, bonds , cash & other assets ) is the number one determinant of long term returns
If your portfolio was heavily weighted (i.e >70%) to stocks it has taken a pounding.
I feel for you.
Yeah I have taken a beating as well, however, a higher stock allocation would have made it an absolute nightmare.
Will the market continue to go lower?
Quite possibly, however do not be surprised if we see a dead cat bounce next week.
The problem with a dead cat is they do not bounce as high as the live ones.
If your portfolio was heavily weighted (i.e >70%) to stocks it has taken a pounding.
I feel for you.
Yeah I have taken a beating as well, however, a higher stock allocation would have made it an absolute nightmare.
Will the market continue to go lower?
Quite possibly, however do not be surprised if we see a dead cat bounce next week.
The problem with a dead cat is they do not bounce as high as the live ones.
This has the potential of getting worse, and worse, until it has squeezed out all the inefficiencies in the American economy--namely all the massive debts being carried around. That means bankrupting a lot of people and a lot of companies until all the unrealistic debts are written off. Very painful.
It took decades to pack that debt on, it's hard to imagine it's going to sort itself out in a few months.
I think we're in for 3-4 bad years.
It took decades to pack that debt on, it's hard to imagine it's going to sort itself out in a few months.
I think we're in for 3-4 bad years.
I agree, I think it will take a while to really sort itself out. The problem was not made overnight, and it cannot be corrected overnight.fuji said:
okay I am certainly not savvy on all the marketing stuff, but unless I'm either retiring today or the stocks do a Bre-X thing isn't the falling market a good thing for my investing? Since I'm still putting money into my pension doesn't that mean that if the stock has dropped 50% that I'm now buying 2 shares instead of the 1 I normally would have bought?
Right you are Moraff !!! &&&&
....as said you do not loose until you sell!! Must ask & crunch the #s to determine if the co. you invest in has real asset value. Many stock are now UNDER valued & YES I say in a few months it will be buy-buy-buy at a bargain. When the dust settles we might be looking at a big rally. That being said, I never bought stock. I always feel ,if it is not my friends running the co. ,then I can never be sure of the future health of the co. A WISE ADAGE: never invest money in stock that you cannot afford to loose. I always felt I could not afford to loose any of my money soooo it goes into owning a home with no mortgage. Cheers.
....as said you do not loose until you sell!! Must ask & crunch the #s to determine if the co. you invest in has real asset value. Many stock are now UNDER valued & YES I say in a few months it will be buy-buy-buy at a bargain. When the dust settles we might be looking at a big rally. That being said, I never bought stock. I always feel ,if it is not my friends running the co. ,then I can never be sure of the future health of the co. A WISE ADAGE: never invest money in stock that you cannot afford to loose. I always felt I could not afford to loose any of my money soooo it goes into owning a home with no mortgage. Cheers.
I think this is one of the dumbest posts I've read, and believe me, I read your EMMA posts.rubmeister100 said:
What if I wanted to take money out to pay down my mortgage or a line of credit? If I can't do this, then I lose REAL money in interest payments, or if I sell to pay these down, then my paper losses turn in to real ones.
What if I need money now and decide to get a loan instead of taking money out of the market at a loss - well, then I'm incurring a REAL MONEY LOSS in terms of paying interest.
What if I get a margin call (and those are very likely given the direction of the market)? I have to come-up with the REAL money from somewhere.
What if I rely on dividends as part of my REAL money income?
What if I'm near retirement, or in retirement, or didn't shift my money into fixed-income assets before this hit and I need REAL money now?
What if I entered into a purchase agreement, or a future contract, that I need to pay for NOW (say a real estate transaction) with REAL money or in the next few months based on my stock portfolio.
The above may not be the situation these posters are in, and in some cases, they may not be the most prudent courses of financial action to begin with (e.g. get your cash ready for any obligations in three months hence and people who are near retirement should have shifted-out long ago, don't buy on margin) - but for crying out loud - there are lots of people who can't just simply wait it out, and there are lots of people who will incur REAL losses, either directly or indirectly.
What about the uncertainty that is created in other markets by people who don't take money out and who postpone purchases? The guy who lost $25k I'm sure is not going out to buy his boat tomorrow or book his dream SP session. People and markets don't like uncertainty.
Oh, and how long are these "paper losses" going to last? Is the market going to roar-back tomorrow, next month, next year, 5 years from now? What if I need money two years from now and the markets still are not up? Sure - just remember what some Terb Yutz says - it's only paper losses until I sell. Brilliant.
If I need money in two years from now, should I sell NOW, and incur the REAL LOSS NOW and put my money into fixed income products, or interest bearing products so that I at least earn something over the two years instead of possibly earning nothing or losing more? Given this time of uncertainty, where is my money best put - and is it best taken out of the market at a LOSS NOW and put into another type of investment? Oh wait - I should just hold tight according to you.
Do you know the way to get OUT of a recession? It's to have people SPEND money and have confidence in markets and the economy - and unfortunately, "waiting" for those losses to disappear only makes things worse. If this lasts for a while, many people will be forced to sell as the need for money increases.
Last edited:
only 19 more days and the DOW will be worth ZERO if it keeps up the same pace it has in the last 7 days.
the DOW is now at the same average levels that it was in 1997! Take into consideration inflation and it's comparable to 1990 levels.
So an index fund bought in 1990 could have been invested for 18 years and cashed out today and it would have the same purchasing power as initially invested! holy farkas.
the DOW is now at the same average levels that it was in 1997! Take into consideration inflation and it's comparable to 1990 levels.
So an index fund bought in 1990 could have been invested for 18 years and cashed out today and it would have the same purchasing power as initially invested! holy farkas.
just relax ppl...panicking now is the worst thing you can do.
if your investments are in companies that have strong balance sheets and are operationally sound don't sell. have a long term investment horizon.
if your investments are in companies that have strong balance sheets and are operationally sound don't sell. have a long term investment horizon.
rubmeister100 said:If Warren Buffett explained the buy and hold approach to investing would you call the richest and most successful stock market investor a "yutz"?
The quickest reference I came up with is the Wiki entry:
"Buy and hold is a long term investment strategy based on the concept that in the long run financial markets give a good rate of return despite periods of volatility or decline. This viewpoint also holds that market timing, i.e. the concept that one can enter the market on the lows and sell on the highs, does not work or does not work for small investors so it is better to simply buy and hold.
The antithesis of buy and hold is the concept of day trading in which money can be made in the short term if an individual tries to short on the peaks, and buy on the lows with greater money coming with greater volatility.
One of the strongest arguments for the buy and hold strategy is the efficient market hypothesis (EMH): If every security is fairly valued at all times, then there is really no point to trade. Some take the buy and hold strategy to an extreme, advocating that you should never sell a security unless you need the money [1].
Others have advocated buy and hold on purely cost-based grounds, without resort to the EMH. Costs such as brokerage and bid/offer spread are incurred on all transactions, and buy-and-hold involves the fewest transactions for a given amount invested in the market, all other things being equal. Warren Buffett is an example of a buy and hold advocate who has rejected the EMH in his writings."
What if, what if? What if you wanted to take out your money and play with your other investments? Then you analyze if your sale is worthwhile in terms of its current value versus the interest rate du jour..
Who's the Yutz then Shylock? If you wanna be a big moneyman and play paper games with your paper money to make windfall profits with stock market money you can't back up with CASH, then you deserve what you get. Just like the banks deserve what they got when they gambled on bet's they couldn't cover.
See above.
Investment 101
Well sorry to say but ... you wanna play with volotile substances (ie: the stock market) it is inevitable that they will catch fire once in a while.
If a retired person wants to buy on margins and is so strapped for immediate cash to survive the next three months, then they shoudl not have been so heavily invested in the stock market. And if they are retired, they should have learned from their life experience and known that there are BEAR markets as well as Bull and shoudl have planned accordingly.
That is unless the stooge relied on some commissioned fuckwad parasite "financial planner" who managed to talk them into more mutual funds etc. Using all the spurious graphs and projections etc that the rest of the "financial services" industry uses to convince the herd to buy...no sell, no buy, now SELL... no buy NOW!
Agreed.
But I personally think this is a good thing. Most of those people buying boats, leasing Hummers, new Mercedes and buying $25,000 granite countertops for their stainless sttel comemrcial home kitchen bought it on CREDIT CARDS. And cannot fundamentally afford them.
Blah blah blah... yawn.
Well as I look into my crystal ball...I can say with absolute certainty (although past performance is no guarantee of future earnings!) that the WORLD WILL RECOVER!
But I can see you might not. So...what is with this "need money" phrase you speak so much about?
So far your "needs" for money you mention have to do with you wanting to optimize your interest rates on your mortgage, investments, covering your stock market margins, buying yachts and seeing high end hookers.
Isn't spending outside one's means and playing games at the Casino we call the stck market what got us into the trouble we are in now? Makes "yutz's" like you responsible for not only YOUR "losses" but the rest of society's...
Yup. And Warren Buffet.
Do you know the way to be really and fundamentally propserous?
CREATE something.
Don't just suck along like a parasite hoping that fancy trading schemes and investing with borrowed money will fix the world, the country or your own personal fortunes.
Create something. And I mean something you can touch not just charge a fee on some derivative of paper money traded overnight with other shylocks in another timezone.
Excellent reply Rub.
Yes, I also go with the Buffet approach. If one doesn't, that is fine and many can do better with other systems, but no need to knock the Buffet way as it does work.
In my case ten years ago when oil was dirt cheap I decided oil would go up. I based this on China and India emerging as major oil importers since the U.S. was outsourcing manufacturing of non-military items. I invested 100k in oil stocks, using Buffet's long term approach. As of close of markets yesterday those stocks were worth 400k - a 4x increase in 10 years. Now, at the height of the oil speculation craze this summer, those stocks were worth 800k (8x increase). In hindsight I should have sold at the high price. But, I thought it might be sustainable or rise more (as many pros were saying it would) and I didn't want to take the capital gains hit selling would require. So I left it in. So, now the oil stocks I have took major hits and are worth 400k, not 800k. But this is all on paper. Even with the loss, my long term investment is still worth 4x what I put in 10 years ago.
If one was retiring next month, I can see how this market crash would cause major problems. For me, this money isn't money I need to use - it is investment money that maybe many years from now I will use in retirement. Hence my opinion that one in my position shouldn't get an ulcer over the crash and weep that my 800k is now 400k. Rather, look at the bright side - 100k became 400k over 10 years following the Buffet way, and maybe it will in another 10 years be worth more. Crazy market speculation isn't part of the long term view...if the oil shares had never gone to 800k and were at 400k with no maket crash, I'd have been happy at the 4x increase over 10 years.
Losses and gains are realized and final upon sale but they do exist in real time.rubmeister100 said:
They can just as easily go up or down going forward.
Some investments will get better and some will get worse but the thinking that everything will come back eventually is ridiculous.
This isn't going to as quick as the tech bust a while back as the current crises is about is about fundementals that are underpinning most banks,insurance companies ,real estate etc,government fiscial policy
that being said if you actually don't know when the markets are going to surge back or have a real stragety to get in before the stampede,your better off holding and not selling into a bear market and loosing money you will never regain. imho
Good time to buy
=willie
that being said if you actually don't know when the markets are going to surge back or have a real stragety to get in before the stampede,your better off holding and not selling into a bear market and loosing money you will never regain. imho
Good time to buy
=willie
Theres stocks that got drop by the S & P 500 list..when the company is worth less than 4 million today for so long, the S & P drops the stock and replaces it with another company.
If you think EVERY stock is coming back someday, then buy Lehman Brothers on the pink slip now for 10 cents a share. Thats has a 52 week high in the 70'S...
When a company goes bankrupt like Lehman, the stock NEVER comes back...sometimes after a while, the company sells new shares but the old stock is worthless...or 10 cents a share.
If you think EVERY stock is coming back someday, then buy Lehman Brothers on the pink slip now for 10 cents a share. Thats has a 52 week high in the 70'S...
When a company goes bankrupt like Lehman, the stock NEVER comes back...sometimes after a while, the company sells new shares but the old stock is worthless...or 10 cents a share.
A lot of stocks will never recover to see new highs.
A lot of stocks have gone, and are going, to $0.
The indexes are deceptive because they change the composition.
A lot of stocks have gone, and are going, to $0.
The indexes are deceptive because they change the composition.
Nortel would have to go from less than $2 to over $1200 to get back, allowing for a recent 1 for 10 reverse split.S.C. Joe said:
