Where are the markets headed?

[BallzDeep]

Time for our monthly analysis, some say higher, the same amount say lower. I keep hearing about these toxic assets and how the good earnings are mainly through cost cutting and other slights of hand.

Anyone who's in the financial field want to give his/her opinion, all I know is I don't buy in and it keeps going higher, I'm a skeptic.

 

[danmand]

It will fluctuate. (J.P. Morgan)

 

[Radio_Shack]

Definelety up and down and side ways

 

[winstar]

hah hah hah

The eternal question.

Well, some economists have stated that the recession is over:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...is-over-cuethepainfulrecovery/article1229378/

but the classic drop after an initial bull market run that we saw in March 2009 that we should expect to see after every major stock crash (i.e. Great depression, 1987, and the recent tech bubble burst) hasn't occurred yet.

It may or may not happen, but I heard retail/tech stocks recently were worth investing in because they are the ones that typically recover the quickest. However, most of the recovery in these markets have already occurred in that most have already reached their 1 year high a year ago before this crisis, so growth in these sectors will probably be slow.

Short answer, I have no clue. But neither does anyone else.

 

[blackrock13]

Eventually up, as it always has done.

 

[dcbogey]

Eventually up, as it always has done.

What he said

 

[WoodPeckr]

Some 'experts' think a big crash is coming this September....

 

[nottyboi]

well the term "expert" is pretty worthless in this field. I heard Microsoft just posted a terrible quarter. missed revenue by 1.3B....I suspect there has to be a correction. Maybe the worst is over, but it ain't over. Who knows though.

 

[Yoga Face]

Buy undervalued stock and hold. Market timing is for losers.

 

[qwertyuio]

And how do you find undervalued stocks?

 

[Yoga Face]

And how do you find undervalued stocks?

I dont.

Mutual funds do

Also Warren Buffet is the master

 

[train]

Some 'experts' think a big crash is coming this September....

Were these experts right in May of '08 ? I laugh when ever I hear the term "expert" as we'd be sadly disappointed with their batting averages on their predictions.

Predictions are all over the map. Jobs will be a lagging indicator so I wouldn't be investing in reatail as, logically, it should follow suit.

Earnings improvements are partially due to cost cutting but I don't think I would classify it as all being "slight of hand". We tend to become bloated when times are good and letting some air out is just putting things back into equilibrium.

 

[Big Rig]

Were these experts right in May of '08 ? I laugh when ever I hear the term "expert" as we'd be sadly disappointed with their batting averages on their predictions.

Predictions are all over the map. Jobs will be a lagging indicator so I wouldn't be investing in reatail as, logically, it should follow suit.

Earnings improvements are partially due to cost cutting but I don't think I would classify it as all being "slight of hand". We tend to become bloated when times are good and letting some air out is just putting things back into equilibrium.

The Toronto Star once asked the five "experts" to pick some stocks then threw a dart to pick their own

After a month the dart had won and none of the "experts" beat the average

when will we stop listening to these self proclaimed experts ?

 

[Big Rig]

It will fluctuate. (J.P. Morgan)

Correction

I think he said


" The markets will flucuate "

 

[wonkyknee]

Who is more genius?

The Toronto Star once asked the five "experts" to pick some stocks then threw a dart to pick their own

After a month the dart had won and none of the "experts" beat the average

when will we stop listening to these self proclaimed experts ?

Is the Toronto Star more Genius for doing this lame experiment or you for remembering(in a positive way) and then having the nerve to refer to it?

A 30 day prediction on stock price movement? Really???

It's amazing how much education is offered to general public on investing yet noone ever learns a darn thing!

How about a better example of the 20 year history of the Fidelity Magellan Fund, a no load mutual fund where investors are able to buy in and sell out whenever they please without fees. The fund averaged 20 percent compounded per year over 20 years while managed by a "so called expert". The actual returns on accounts were calculated by the "better off yourselves, do-it-yourself-investors" over the same 20 years and guess what?? The average actual returns investors achieved by market timing in and out of the fund instead of leaving it to the "so called expert" was "NEGATIVE!!!"........OVER 20 YEARS.

For those non-experts, that means ever year you could have made at least19% instead of losing 1%...every single year on average....COMPOUNDED!!

 

[Big Rig]

Is the Toronto Star more Genius for doing this lame experiment or you for remembering(in a positive way) and then having the nerve to refer to it?

A 30 day prediction on stock price movement? Really???

It's amazing how much education is offered to general public on investing yet noone ever learns a darn thing!

How about a better example of the 20 year history of the Fidelity Magellan Fund, a no load mutual fund where investors are able to buy in and sell out whenever they please without fees. The fund averaged 20 percent compounded per year over 20 years while managed by a "so called expert". The actual returns on accounts were calculated by the "better off yourselves, do-it-yourself-investors" over the same 20 years and guess what?? The average actual returns investors achieved by market timing in and out of the fund instead of leaving it to the "so called expert" was "NEGATIVE!!!"........OVER 20 YEARS.

For those non-experts, that means ever year you could have made at least19% instead of losing 1%...every single year on average....COMPOUNDED!!

I thankyou for the info but the experts knew the time involved was a month

most funds do not beat the average

somewill by chance

I agree do not be a do-it-yourself invester

indexing seems the way to go

what is your opinion please

 

[danmand]

Correction

I think he said


" The markets will flucuate "

That is what I thought , and what I wrote first. But then I looked it up:
http://www.memorable-quotes.com/it+will+fluctuate+,a1192.html

 

[squash500]

I dont.

Mutual funds do

Also Warren Buffet is the master

Mutual funds for the most part are awful. ETFS are the way to go.

 

[wonkyknee]

Buy and Hold..

That is what I thought , and what I wrote first. But then I looked it up:
http://www.memorable-quotes.com/it+will+fluctuate+,a1192.html

There is a very very good chance that just like over the last 10 years, buy and hold, or indexing does not work. Small Funds managing small amounts of money will be preferable. One of the guys I have enjoyed listening to is Jean Francois Tardiff at Sprott, however he just retired. Smaller amounts of money managed at Hedge Funds, administered by large companies would be a good bet for some money. 20% of a portfolio.


Good diversification should work right now, with rebalancing on a regular basis. I know diversification didn't work very well last fall, but there was in general a very disturbing overallocation to stocks over the years. Someone who had 50% of their portfolio last year in Cash, bonds, and real return bonds, would have weathered this last year much better after re-balancing quarterly, (ie: year end and then again March 30th of this year.)

Physical Gold/silver actually made money last year, but not as much as many had thought. Gold did go from the 2-300's in the last few years up to the 900's and held on to the gains.

 

[iamthegucc]

Mutual funds for the most part are awful. ETFS are the way to go.

Absolutely agreed. ETF's have proven to be exceptional (Horizons for 2x or Direxion for 3x leverage). Im in the markets myself quite substantially (personally and professionally).

Commodities will rock out over the next 18 months. China will continue to explode, needing crude and minerals.

Also - small caps in the Cdn. marketplace will also provide value gains (financial, healthcare) and help diversify the commodity overload i recomend....

... but then who the hell am I?!?!?!?