When do you guys think a Canadian election will be called?
- Thread starter shane4
- Start date
Depends on if he resigns. If he does I expect the NDP will use this as an excuse to delay a non confidence vote so they can have a leadership convention.
If he doesn't resign then probably end of Feb call for mid April election. But you never know.
If he doesn't resign then probably end of Feb call for mid April election. But you never know.
He is going to prorogue parliament to keep his job as long as possible. Have a leadership race but still stay on as a MP.
So it depends on how long he prorogues parliament for.
So it depends on how long he prorogues parliament for.
Longest would be until March 31st. The government will run out of funds by then, if not sooner.
I'm going with, not soon enough. Trudeau is done, finished, toast. Can't wait until we officially say goodbye to the worst Prime Minister this country has ever seen. Good riddance!
Barring an emergency return, which isn't likely, the House sits next on January 27th.
Even if Trudeau doesn't resign, it's likely going to be at most a couple of days for a non-confidence motion to be voted on but unlikely to extend beyond the end of the week. It seems all but certain said motion will pass, meaning the last week in January will be the latest Trudeau can go before either resigning or asking the Governor General to dissolve Parliament.
There's really no grounds for the Governor General to refuse in this case as no other leader seems likely to be able to gain the confidence of the House, so whether Trudeau resigns or Parlement is dissolved, a writ of election will likely be issued no later than January 31st. There's a minimum 36 day and maximum 50 day campaigning period, unless the Liberals can establish extreme circumstances needing more time.
Since I doubt "our incompetence has lead to a lack of confidence so we need more time to elect a new leader" will be good enough, we're probably looking at an election no later than March 22nd, and not likely more than a week than that.
By law, the results have to be announced within 7 days, and by convention the new government sits within 30-40 days.
So most likely we're looking at an election in mid- to late-March, almost certainly Poilievre is going to be announced as the winner by the end of March, and his new Government to sit no sooner than the last week of April or first week or two of May. It's pretty much a certainty it will be a majority if not a supermajority government, with the Liberals winning very few seats if any.
Even if Trudeau doesn't resign, it's likely going to be at most a couple of days for a non-confidence motion to be voted on but unlikely to extend beyond the end of the week. It seems all but certain said motion will pass, meaning the last week in January will be the latest Trudeau can go before either resigning or asking the Governor General to dissolve Parliament.
There's really no grounds for the Governor General to refuse in this case as no other leader seems likely to be able to gain the confidence of the House, so whether Trudeau resigns or Parlement is dissolved, a writ of election will likely be issued no later than January 31st. There's a minimum 36 day and maximum 50 day campaigning period, unless the Liberals can establish extreme circumstances needing more time.
Since I doubt "our incompetence has lead to a lack of confidence so we need more time to elect a new leader" will be good enough, we're probably looking at an election no later than March 22nd, and not likely more than a week than that.
By law, the results have to be announced within 7 days, and by convention the new government sits within 30-40 days.
So most likely we're looking at an election in mid- to late-March, almost certainly Poilievre is going to be announced as the winner by the end of March, and his new Government to sit no sooner than the last week of April or first week or two of May. It's pretty much a certainty it will be a majority if not a supermajority government, with the Liberals winning very few seats if any.
Why will they run out of funds? the Treasury board still operates, revenues are still coming in....
He will probably prorogue parliament citing the urgency to prepare for trade negotiations with the USA. After which Parliamenty will close for summer break and perhaps the libs will have a leadership convention to prepare for the election
I don't think it's likely he'll be able to prorogue until after the summer break in January. I also don't think he has any reason to. I'm sticking to my prediction.
I hope Pierre throws that back in Trudeau's face when he does it.
"Trudeau can do much via executive fiat, but he needs Parliament to approve the monies needed to keep the federal government running."
Conveniently for him, on Dec. 10 the House of Commons passed a bill releasing $21.6 billion to fund the federal civil service for the rest of “the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025.”
FIRST READING: How far Trudeau could go in clinging to power
In an extreme case, he prorogues parliament and walls himself up in the PMO until the federal government goes broke
nationalpost.com
It would be unfair and undemocratic to force an election without giving the Libs a couple months to pick a new leader. As far as the urgency to deal with Trump in 3 weeks, I say fuck Trump and go ahead regardless. They should select a temporary PM who is not a leadership candidate to carry on until the new leader is chosen by a convention vote. I'm sure PP would like the vote next week and all you Cons can't wait to have our education, pension and medicare plans decimated!
No it isn't. Trudeau had the choice to step down at any time. In this case it's his duty to take his lumps if an election is called. If he resigns his cowardice is no excuse, just a lesson for the Liberal party to pick better next time.
