week 6 -live from gran bahia principe in the mayan riviera....turn around

[healer677]

im in mexico but that doesn't stop the motion on the field. I had a great week, capped of by a huge under on the Ravens game.

LET'S START WITH THE LOCK OF THE WEEK. Remember gents- the game is 7 point teaser parlays.

This early in the week, I'm calling for the Bears to continue their winning ways. With a cotonelle soft schedule, they should take Arizona and their rookie pivot by 3. As called last week, the Bears should violate Arizona like they did to Lose-man. The line opened at 10 - thats a decent number. The D is far better than I anticipated.

The no- touches for me are...

KC at Pittsburgh - KCs close win in Arizona is embarassing but they do have the fifth rank D...yes, KC and are 1-1 away. The Steelers...smoke and mirrors like Ive said in the past. But theyre bound to win one one day. no go here.

NYG at Atlanta - atl minus 3...too unpredictable from both ends.

Carolina at Baltimore- tough loss vs Denver but they covered mu -11 bet.lol and my under. Blt minus 2.5...no thanks.

My maybes....

Buffalo 2-3 at Detroit 0-5 - In the Silverdome, the sun will shine on a dogs ass even once in a while....with the tease....Lions plus 5.5 is a good bet.

Ten at Wsh - Washington on a tease plus points at home - almost a no brainer here.

Oakland at Denver -will oakland break the cycle in mile high. Give me a close or less than 3 lay for Denver, I'd take them. Right now its at 15.5 on the Vegas lay.

There are five games on my bet-list...I'll be back with those later.

 

[healer677]

my money makers

In no particular order...

I'll start with Houston 1-3 66-113 vs the ´Boys 2-1 89-48 at minus 13. Dallas got beat at home by Philly 38-24. McNabb had an unreal game and Owens was a non factor in the first half. Bledsoe looked like shit he was 18 for 38 for 223 yds with 3 ints -hes got the lowest QB rating in the AFC at 129-66 885yds 5 tds and 7 ints rated at 63.6. The good news with Houston is they have the highest rated QB in the AFC at 108.9 but their D is the worse. A power ranked 4th cowboys team should cover a 29th ranked team by 6.

Seattle 3-1 78-83 minus 3.5 vs St Louis 4-1 111-98. St Louis got lucky with GB, StLs D is lousy but Bulger makes up for it Seattle should with this with a plus 4 .5 spot.

Tennesse 0-5 60-135 vs Washington - Washingtons offense took the day off vs the Giants, expect them to play better vs Tenn. Tenn battled Indy but fell short. Tenn D is still horrible. Tenn will use the same game plan in Wsh as in Indy- theyll run the ball but Was D in the middle is better than Indys. Take Washigton minus 2.5...thats a great number.

Take Philly in NO plus the 4 points. I dont believe NO can play up evey game, frankle I dont think theyre that good even at 4-1.

last one take Cincinnati....off a bye and angry at the NE loss -TB is fucked.

Thats it for me gents -good luck with next weeks bets.

 

[ottawasub]

- Denver is only averaging 12 points a game. 15.5 seems really high for Plummer to cover.

- If I`m Houston I`d blitz Bledsoe all day long. He simply panics too much under pressure.

- The 10 points that the Chargers are favored by seems pretty high against a 49er team that usually hangs tough at home. Rivers looked great against Pittsburgh, but SD`s secondary is a weakness waiting to be exploited.

- Both Tampa and Detroit are better than their combined 0-9 record would indicate. Doesn`t the law of averages have to kick in at some point? Hopefully Martz will take his meds this week and not try to pass on practically every down. Those poor Detroit fans don`t deserve this.

 

[homonger]

Dallas got beat at home by Philly 38-24. McNabb had an unreal game and Owens was a non factor in the first half. Bledsoe looked like shit he was 18 for 38 for 223 yds with 3 ints -hes got the lowest QB rating in the AFC at 129-66 885yds 5 tds and 7 ints rated at 63.6.

While I read your picks religiously healer, you are off on some of your facts here. The game was played in Philly, and Bledsoe has the lowest QB rating in the NFC.

I'm still trying to wrap my head around your fondness for teasers. What kind of payoff are you getting on them?

But enough criticism and questions. With my gaudy 13-12 record so far, my picks for week 6 are:

BALT -2.5 vs. Car
DAL -12.5 vs. Hou
NYJ -2.5 vs. Mia
Sd -10.5 vs. SF
Chi -10.5 vs. ARZ

 

[mrpolarbear]

- Those poor Detroit fans don`t deserve this.

Yes they do.

 

[healer677]

sorry homonger -the heat down here is making me stupid. I agree, Id blitz Drew all day too - but I plan to buy it down to 6.5 -thats a good number. Im taking the chargers vs niners at 3 another good number for a push if all hell breaks loose same with denver at 8. The 8 for Denver is a shit number - 2 scores but it is Oakland and theyre bad.

Right now teasers are making me money. Ive taken a lot of bad beats over the years on parlays and money lines, most of them one leg losses by .5s. The past two years Ive dabbled on teasers and this year I decided to go all out on teasers. So far Im getting about a 3 to 1 return and Ive only lost on two of five weeks. Both losses were on one leg outright wrong teams.

So for now it looks like 5 tickets -with all 7 point teasers Cinci plus 1, Wash -3, Dallas -6.5,Blt plus 4, SD -3 and Chi -3.5. The rest of the tickets are variations with - Seattle plus4, NYG plus 10, Blt plus 4, Den -8, I even threw in KC plus 14.

any thoughts.

 

[homonger]

Right now teasers are making me money. Ive taken a lot of bad beats over the years on parlays and money lines, most of them one leg losses by .5s. The past two years Ive dabbled on teasers and this year I decided to go all out on teasers. So far Im getting about a 3 to 1 return and Ive only lost on two of five weeks. Both losses were on one leg outright wrong teams.

If you're making money, then that's all that counts. On the site I bet on, I typically see payoffs of about 2:1 on 4 team 7 pt. teasers. I'm not sure if that's a "fair" payoff, but given my luck on single team point spreads and 3 team parlays, I might give teasers a try.

To your point, I lost a parlay last week by 1/2 point, when the Chiefs failed to convert a touchdown on first and goal to go at the 4 yard line. If I had done a teaser, I win. I might have won less than if I had hit the parlay, but a little something is better than a lot of nothing.

 

[healer677]

OMG what a disaster

Washington lost outright and cost me 3 of 5 tickets on my teasers. But Cincinnati (thank you God) eeked out a .5 in my favor for a change. SO there's two more tickets alive and half the games on my 7 team, 7 point teaser parlay are all in. The Giants covered my plus 10 easy -Vick can't hit the side of a barn. And the teasers kept Blatimore (won by 2 on a teaser), Philly (wom by one) and the Bengals by .5. Ive got SD -3, KC plus 14 and Chicago minus 3.5 for another winning weekend. My afternoon games ticket are on the way and I've got NYJ plus 5, SD -3, KC plus 14, Denver -8 and Chicago at -3.5.


Hopefully everyone is doing better than me right now.

 

[mrpolarbear]

Washington lost outright and cost me 3 of 5 tickets on my teasers. But Cincinnati (thank you God) eeked out a .5 in my favor for a change. SO there's two more tickets alive and half the games on my 7 team, 7 point teaser parlay are all in. The Giants covered my plus 10 easy -Vick can't hit the side of a barn. And the teasers kept Blatimore (won by 2 on a teaser), Philly (wom by one) and the Bengals by .5. Ive got SD -3, KC plus 14 and Chicago minus 3.5 for another winning weekend. My afternoon games ticket are on the way and I've got NYJ plus 5, SD -3, KC plus 14, Denver -8 and Chicago at -3.5.


Hopefully everyone is doing better than me right now.

The Chiefs are scalping ya

 

[healer677]

KC laid down from the first quarter. The only saving grace was the fact that they got skull farked, instead of losing by just a point or two.

Well, at least I'm back home where I can think quietly - on to week 7!