Week 5 - the week of the stupid lines. It's a trap.

[healer677]

The lines for Week 5 are out and frankly, I am shocked.

SO far the listed favorites are : Indy -18 1/2, NYG -4(you're kidding right?), Min -6, NO -6, NE -10, Chi -11, Car -8 1/2, JAX -7, KC -3 (another possible steal), SF -3.5, SD -3.5 and Denver -3.5 (good buy).

St Louis vs Green Bay are off the boards for now and so is Dallas and Philly.

I know some of the better teams are playing some of the shittier teams but from my experience an almost 20 point gap in the NFL is a lot to cover. I'll be back with some thoughts later.
For now though, I do have one thought - expect Lose-man to be Lose -man again in Chicago. But 11 might be a tad much -tease it down to 4, now we're talking.
Anybody have any thoughts on this?

 

[healer677]

The last time I remember a line that opened at 18 1/2 and closed (believe it or not) at 21 1/2 were the Radiers a few years back....and to answer the next question -no, they didn't cover that either.

Baltimore is giving me a chubby. I agree the dogs look good. Let me take a closer look at the dogs at home for this week.

 

[topcat]

That Indy line is just silly and i will be laying off it completely spread wise, but might be tempted at taking Ten +24.5 in a teaser. The NYG -4 line is reasonable but i will be on the Skins for sure. The rest of them with the exception of N.O. + S.D. makes it looks like the week of the dog, spread wise that is. Loving Baltimore +3.5 against Denver monday night.

Becareful on the NYG vs Wash. Remember the G-men are coming off
a bye and a bad loss. Coughlin will have them well prepared. I know the
Skins have been playing better latley, but on the road might be difficult.
The Skins also got blown out something like 36-0 last year to the Giants as
well...

 

[nautilus]

I remember giving 16 points in the Steve Young era when the 49ers played Atlanta. They covered easily.

 

[homonger]

Wow, 18.5 points! I wonder, even with that line, how much action there will be on Tennessee. I took Indy -13.5 vs. Houston back in week 2, and they covered. Dallas spanked the Titans by 31 on Sunday, how unrealistic is it that Indy couldn't do the same? Depending on how I feel about the other games, I wouldn't rule out this play just yet, although on the face of it, it does seem enormous.

I usually don't finalize my picks until later in the week, but off the top of my head, I like NE -9.5, maybe NO -6, maybe MIN -6.5. I don't hate the Giants at -4 or the Bears at -11, although I don't love them either. I don't like Carolina -9 vs. the Browns, Carolina hasn't shown me a damn thing so far this season. I might have to go with the Jets +7 who have covered both times on the road this year. SD -3 vs. Pitt is interesting. I suspect Pittsburgh is ready to rally. The Ravens +4 could be good too, they have covered 3 out of 4 weeks so far. I will probably won't touch either one, though.

 

[homonger]

Okay, I'll probably vacillate a little more before I finalize my picks, but as of this moment, I like:

SD -3.5 vs. Pitt
NE -9.5 vs Mia
MINN -6.5 vs. Det
Balt +3.5 vs. DEN
Dal +2.5 vs. PHIL

My 2nd tier games are:

Oak +3.5 vs. SF
Wash +4.5 vs. NYG
Kc -3.5 vs. ARZ
and surprise, GB +3.5 vs. StL

Although I still wouldn't touch INDY -18.5 vs. Tenn with a ten foot pole, I don't think that line is out of line. I think it is a fair line, believe it or not.

 

[freakshow]

that indy line opened at 20 points on monday night

 

[healer677]

The bets are in

Now that I've placed my bets it's time to take a peek at the games I think will do well. First off -I went with parlays all on 7 point teasers.

My lock of the week -

Chicago at home vs the Bills - Some could say that with a bit of luck the Bills could be 4 and 0. But they're not and the Bears ARE 4 and 0. The Bills won vs the Vikings in a mistake free game -0 turnovers. They clocked 19 1st downs almost 300 yds in offense, mostly on passing at 201. But they did commit a few penalties and McGahee had a mediocre game. But...the Bears will cause mistakes. Their D can and will score and they will clog up the middle to cut down the runs. Losman will again show why I call him Lose-man. I'm taking Chicago at -3.

Other games I like a lot-

In what I am hoping will be a low scoring affair -I took Baltimore plus 11. McNair is on fire and he instituted not one but two game winning drives so far in the 4th this year. We could be looking at the two best line backing units in the NFL today.

I'm taking KC plus 4 against Arizona. AZ got the tar kicked out of them by Atlanta 32-10. AZ did not score an offensive TD in last weeks game and will be using a rookie pivot this week. Arizona had 4 turnovers and were 4 /12 in 3rd down conversions. I stayed away from KC last week because of Huard. I took them this week because of him as well. He had a flawless game - 23 1st dwons 18/23 passing for 208 yds and 2 tds. RB Johnson can and will run on this AZ D-line. I like them plus points.

I like NE plus 3. Worse comes to worse this might be a push, but; Miami's O-line looks like shit, and so does Culpepper because of it. NE beat Cincinnati at home last week and reinforced the theory that in a close game I won't bet for or against the Pats (paid off -I was tempeted to take Cinci heavy). Both teams don't score much but Miami is worse.

and for my last two -

I took Pittsburgh...coming off a bye....looking like shit at 1 and 2 plus 10 points. I have no faith in Pittsburghs offense but I still think their D is capable. That and the fact I got them at plus 10.

The last one is the Eagles plus 5 at home vs Dallas. I expect TO to have a good game but .....I also think the Eagles D will play up. They won't lie down for TO in their own house. Philly absolutely violated GB in the 2nd half of last MNF contest. I like them plus the points.

As for the rest -I dabbled on some other teams Wsh plus 11.5, Carolina minus1, Jacksonville as a pick 'em, and NO as a pick 'em.

Minnesota was an absolute no-touch for me this week.
That's it gents -happy betting and good luck.

 

[freakshow]

Now that I've placed my bets it's time to take a peek at the games I think will do well. First off -I went with parlays all on 7 point teasers.

My lock of the week -



Other games I like a lot-

In what I am hoping will be a low scoring affair -I took Baltimore plus 11. McNair is on fire and he instituted not one but two game winning drives so far in the 4th this year. We could be looking at the two best line backing units in the NFL today.

Denver31 Baltimore10= Final score

 

[healer677]

Come now mr freakshow -31? Given that Devner has had a week 4 bye -they've only scored 33 points all year - they got beat by 6 field goals in St Louis in the opener 18-10, a win at home vs KC with a score of 9 -6 then a convincing defensive game vs NE with a 17-7 win. If they score 31 against Baltimore's defense, not only will I be impressed, I'd be more than happy to swallow that loss, with Baltimore getting plus 11. But I barely see 11 -I don't see 21. Baltimore is 4-0 and Denver 2-1. Are you sure you're not speaking as a true blue Broncos fan?

I guess that makes me a football aethist -I don't like anybody. I don't cheer or root for any one team. To me it's all good as long as the numbers are in my favor...so all in all... just spreads baby, just the spreads.

I guess the top bets for the week on a 7 point teaser are - New England minus 3 (good number for a push if all goes to hell), Chicago minus 3, Kansas City plus 4, Philadelphia plus 5, Pittsburgh plus 10 and Baltimore plus 11.

 

[freakshow]

i am being honest....everyone is expecting big defense battle, i think the both with come out throwing the ball.........Prime Time TV.........but you never know could be a 6-3 final.......either way good luck with your bet

 

[healer677]

There are a lot and ifs, maybes and probables on the Eagles injury list -this may not be such a good buy even at plus 5. It's too bad the Eagles don't play at the old vet anymore. I'm hoping the crowd gets some of it's old hostility back.

Wasington though is looking like a great buy plus points. The Giants can't stop anyone from scoring -they're giving up over 4 tds per game. Grab Washington plus 10 if you can.

 

[ottawasub]

As much as I hate taking the favourite in those ridiculously high spreads, Indy at -18 or -19 actually looks good. The last three times they played Tennessee they beat them by more than 20 points each time. Plus after almost losing to the Jets last week, they`ll be looking to make a statement and won`t be fooling around.

 

[healer677]

I think you're right ottawasub - The Titans have lost seven consecutive going back to last season, they've lost seven straight on the road and they've lost six straight to the Colts.

Rumor has it that Dungy clarified the no-huddle rule and will be using it as part of his gameplan against the Titans. Somehow -20 doesn't look out of line anymore.

The NE bet is looking better and better -Culpepper may not play because of a bruised shoulder. But Harrington is the back up, as in Joey from Detroit. The question is -after sitting out the first quarter of the season -is he ready for some game time action? He was a five year starter and is it his time to take over?

 

[homonger]

The NE bet is looking better and better -Culpepper may not play because of a bruised shoulder. But Harrington is the back up, as in Joey from Detroit. The question is -after sitting out the first quarter of the season -is he ready for some game time action? He was a five year starter and is it his time to take over?

I can't imagine he could do any worse than Culpepper.

One other factoid. In the past 3 seasons, Indy's average margin of victory over Tennessee while playing at home is 29.7 points.

 

[homonger]

Well, after all that, I stayed away from the Colts, and a good thing too.

I also shied away from the Cowboys at the last minute, another good thing. Unfortunately, I substituted the Chiefs and they missed covering by 1/2 point. They had the ball at the Cardinal 4 yard line with less than 2 minutes to go and couldn't punch it in, settling for a field goal. Messed up my parlay too.

 

[topcat]

Detroit screws me with the last minute pick return TD, push with GB after Favre turns over the ball on the opponets 16 in the last minute after a timeout, and Cleveland burns me by kicking a FG with 6 seconds left to lose by only 8 and cover the spread by half a fricken point. Arizona blows a 14 point lead and doesn't cover, Pittsburgh blows a 10 point lead and doesn't cover, i got royally screwed this week for sure.

not to mention i warned you on the skins to.

 

[slowandeasy]

The lines for Week 5 are out and frankly, I am shocked.

SO far the listed favorites are : Indy -18 1/2, NYG -4(you're kidding right?), Min -6, NO -6, NE -10, Chi -11, Car -8 1/2, JAX -7, KC -3 (another possible steal), SF -3.5, SD -3.5 and Denver -3.5 (good buy).

St Louis vs Green Bay are off the boards for now and so is Dallas and Philly.

I know some of the better teams are playing some of the shittier teams but from my experience an almost 20 point gap in the NFL is a lot to cover. I'll be back with some thoughts later.
For now though, I do have one thought - expect Lose-man to be Lose -man again in Chicago. But 11 might be a tad much -tease it down to 4, now we're talking.
Anybody have any thoughts on this?

I thought it was just me... but it's too late to comment....

 

[healer677]

congrats homonger - i couldnt lay of the colts at 11-it butned me for one ticket. but i made a killing this week. got a push on pittsburgh and got pinched on the same ticket with washington and indy, so all in all...a great week.

 

[homonger]

congrats homonger - i couldnt lay of the colts at 11-it butned me for one ticket. but i made a killing this week. got a push on pittsburgh and got pinched on the same ticket with washington and indy, so all in all...a great week.

No congrats are due, healer. I went 3-2 in my Pick 5 pool, lost my ML bet on the Raiders (now what I was thinking???), lost my 3 team parlay by 1/2 point because of the Chiefs failure to get into the end zone at the end of the game, and pushed on the NE/Mia game.