US Job Growth Powers Ahead

[onthebottom]

Good news from the land down there!

The final nail has been hammered into the recession of 2000 with today's job growth report. The US added 308,000 non-farm jobs in March, double economist's expectations. January and February numbers were revised up almost 90,000 as well.

This report also stops a 4-year slide in manufacturing employment with those jobs holding steady in March!

Good news for the US economy and team Bush!

OTB


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...&u=/ap/20040402/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

 

[WoodPeckr]

Plus George Tenet, like team Bush, used 'fuzzy math' to prepare that report!

Personally I think the whole Bush team is on OxyContin just like their chief propaganda minister of the far Reich, Herr Rush Limbaugh!

 

[onthebottom]

You guys are pathetic

You jump on bad news and slander good news.

The US economy is unstoppable!

OTB

 

[WoodPeckr]

Re: You guys are pathetic

The US economy is unstoppable!

OTB

Under Clinton I'd agree completely with you!
However under Bush I & II, with a little help from their bud Osama, this is not the case.

 

[onthebottom]

Re: Re: You guys are pathetic

Under Clinton I'd agree completely with you!
However under Bush I & II, with a little help from their bud Osama, this is not the case.

Now that's an insightful and non-partisan view of the world.

OTB

 

[onthebottom]

as much as I hate Bush... I have to admit that those numbers look good. I want to see if this growth is sustained, though, and not just a one time/month thing. I think it's too early to call this an outright success - but I think the Bush administration is loathe to use the words "mission accomplished" again too soon

But if this growth and employment are sustained, then it will be tough to unseat Bush. History has it that Americans care more about jobs than anything else.

Agreed on both the importance of this being sustained and voter behavior. If I were advising POTUS I'd go with a message along the lines of "we got some good news today, there's more work to do and we're doing it"......

OTB

 

[Fortunato]

Good numbers indeed... but I doubt they are sustainable. Alan has been giving away money for a long time, and once he returns to fighting inflation (along with George spending like a woman at Holt Renfrew...)....

Hope they are sustainable, though. Good luck with that.

Best regards,

F.

 

[onthebottom]

Good numbers indeed... but I doubt they are sustainable. Alan has been giving away money for a long time, and once he returns to fighting inflation (along with George spending like a woman at Holt Renfrew...)....

Hope they are sustainable, though. Good luck with that.

Best regards,

F.

Does indeed raise the inflation question. Producer Prices were lower this week for March than expected and higher employment. March was a good month.

OTB

 

[wollensak]

Blah, Blah, Blah

I love these "numbers". They don't mean boo-all.
The average american is very productive becasue he sacrifices his quality of life for more "stuff". Imagine no mandatory paid vacations and crap health care in the richest empire that ever existed. Finally they've woken up to the outsourcing deal - Ross Perots "giant sucking sound" of jobs going offshore.

 

[Malibook]

Good news for the US economy and team Bush!

I don't mean to rain on your parade but there has been an average of well over 300,000 new unemployment claims every WEEK in the US for over a year now.
For a long stretch it was over 400,000.

Plus there are millions of people who have given up looking for work who are not even counted in the unemployment numbers.
This makes the advertised unemployment rate (which just went up BTW) look deceptively low.

Also extremely relevant is the quality of the jobs, both lost and gained.

 

[Marco]

Ah, India and China must have imported some new McJobs.

How many high paying jobs is IBM shipping to India this month?

 

[UMustang]

308,000 new jobs. Sounds good
Now of that, how many jobs were part time?

According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics, using seasonally adjusted numbers, the number of part time employees (for economic reasons) rose to 4,733,000 from 4,437,000. That's 296,000 new part time positions. "These individuals indicated that they would like to work full time but were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time jobs." (BLS)
Okay, so lets take the part time numbers out and see how many new full time positions were created.
12,000 new full time positions

I wouldn't be shouting from the mountain tops about this.

As someone else pointed out, embedded in these numbers are striking workers who are now returning to work, which distorts the figure even more. And lets not forget that construction jumped significantly, which I would believe is more weather related than White House related.

 

[Asterix]

In addition, 75% of the jobs gained were in the service industry, none in manufacturing. Service industry jobs could mean anything from health care down to flipping burgers at McDonalds; considering the high percentage of part time to full time in jobs gained, I'd love to see a breakdown on exactly what these jobs are.

Also, as Malibook pointed out, is anyone bothering to compare the quality and pay of the jobs lost in the past few years and what people are settling for now? Not to mention all the people who have simply given up looking and are no longer part of the statistics.

I hope the March labor numbers are truly indicating a recovery may be coming, but I'm sceptical. I have a small business here in the US, in a city which still has an unemployment rate of 8.1%. Fortunately, I've been able to keep my employees, most going back several years, but it's not been easy.

By the way, unemployment actually rose slightly in March; the jobs gained were largely a reflection of new people entering the job force.

 

[UMustang]

In addition, 75% of the jobs gained were in the service industry, none in manufacturing. Service industry jobs could mean anything from health care down to flipping burgers at McDonalds

Wait a sec. I thought flipping burgers at McDonalds was now considered Manufacturing.

 

[Asterix]

Wait a sec. I thought flipping burgers at McDonalds was now considered Manufacturing.

Considering some of the chemicals involved in processing all those happy meals, you're probably right.

 

[onthebottom]

Re: Re: US Job Growth Powers Ahead

I don't mean to rain on your parade but there has been an average of well over 300,000 new unemployment claims every WEEK in the US for over a year now.
For a long stretch it was over 400,000.

Plus there are millions of people who have given up looking for work who are not even counted in the unemployment numbers.
This makes the advertised unemployment rate (which just went up BTW) look deceptively low.

Also extremely relevant is the quality of the jobs, both lost and gained.

so what's your point, net jobs went up 308k (plus the revision up of 87k in Febuary). I would agree the quality of jobs matters, income was also up, would that indicate something?

OTB

 

[onthebottom]

Re: Re: US Job Growth Powers Ahead

Easy there OTB, whats not reported are two large strikes that where settled in the manufacturing sector. It will be a minor miracle if Bush does not become the first Prez since Hoover to have a net loss in jobs.


bbk

Easy BBK, the grocery strike only effected the numbers by 10k ( replacements of temp workers). And yes, inheariting a recession (two months after he takes office) and 9/11 had a negative effect. Even given those, the Economist estimates that 1.5M of those jobs were unsustainable (1/17/04) due to the very low unemployment rate 4.2%. You can't hang a bubble bursting on Bush, as much as those who don't think much would like to.

If this job growth continues the economy will be firing hard, making it easy for Bush to say he's take the economy through multiple shocks and landed on his feet. Too early to make that claim but he's on his way.

OTB

 

[onthebottom]

And lets not forget that construction jumped significantly, which I would believe is more weather related than White House related.

These are seasonly adjusted obiously, although you could make an arguement that rates had something to do with it.

OTB

 

[onthebottom]

In addition, 75% of the jobs gained were in the service industry, none in manufacturing. Service industry jobs could mean anything from health care down to flipping burgers at McDonalds; considering the high percentage of part time to full time in jobs gained, I'd love to see a breakdown on exactly what these jobs are.

.....

That's interesting, the services industry is 75% of the US economy. Don't only think fast food when you think services, think Banking (which made a third of all corporate profits last year), consulting, healthcare..... It's the most value add part of the economy.

OTB

 

[onthebottom]

Re: Re: Re: Re: US Job Growth Powers Ahead

I didn't say he was responsible for the bubble bursting on his watch - I was just noting the fact that he will most likely be the first Prez since Hoover to have a net loss in jobs which is a pretty interesting feat considering the overall power of the US economy. It was more than 10k on strike and temp jobs are not counted, good try though. When the fellow said Service Industry - I think he was only think fast food jobs. The fact is the US economy is in a fundamental change that started in 1994 and that is one from manufacturing to service (including tech). It is as fundemental of a change as it was when the US economy went from farming to manufacturing and just as painful. As for the tech bubble, you really have to blame Bernie Evers(sic) and World Com who in one of their annual reports (possibly 1998) made the claim, and provided the numbers that seem to support it, that internet traffic was doubling every three months. Now you can imagine that good investment bankers like myself where very eager to match investors to any thing that had a .com attached to it. Well of course we now know those numbers where bogus because World Com. was trying to address phoney revenue #. The traffic the .com's needed to stay alive never happened - poof all that money and the jobs with it disappeared.
You see I know Bush is not responsible, but it happened on his watch and as a good left of centre in my politics, I am more than happy to hang the entire mess on him. As inviting as these numbers seem to be, this trend needs to continue and I worry it wont. Believe it or not I really am cheering the US economy on - I make more money when your economy is strong.

A left of center investment banker who would like to blame Bush even though he knows better, only in Canada!

And from Rueters April 2

"The department said payrolls got a 10,000-to-20,000 boost as employees returned to work following a dispute at grocery stores in California that had idled 72,000 workers. The impact was muted because many of the returning employees displaced temporary hires. "

So there! LOL

OTB