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US index funds may not be a good choice anymore

stinkynuts

Super
Jan 4, 2005
8,558
2,887
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The S&P is at bubble levels led by the AI bubble. The Schilller PE ratio is now at same level as the dotcom bubble. There could be a massive crash very soon.



Vanguard and other instituions are predictiong US equities will return almost nothing over the next decade, especially growth stocks. That is, if you hold US stocks for a whole decade, you will see virtually no returns. The most likely reason is there will be a major crash like the dotcom crash that will take years to recover from. International stocks are priced much more fairly, and will outpeform US stocks.

The old advice of always buy the s&p doesn't hold in times like this, especially with Trump in charge.

My personl opinion is that there will be one last major run as Trump slashes interest rates. There will be a price to pay, however, as US debt reaches a tipping point.




 

skiierelite

Well-known member
Dec 12, 2024
320
509
93
A crash could occur in any stock market. Crashes rarely happen in one day, more like accumulative losses, over several days or weeks, that add up to 30%. It's the responsibility of each investor to sell part or all of their investments in other to protect themselves.
 
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