Ukraine defaults on GDP-linked sovereign debt payment

oil&gas

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Ghawar
June 4, 2025

Ukraine has declined to pay holders of $2.6 billion in warrants linked to the country's GDP, defaulting on its sovereign debt payment, the Wall Street Journal reported on June 3.

The country's Finance Ministry announced last week it would skip a $665 million government debt payment after failing to agree on restructuring terms with creditors.

Ukraine said in April it had failed to reach an agreement to restructure a debt consisting of so-called GDP warrants, a financial instrument that gives the debtholder the right to additional payments based on economic performance.

"Ukraine remains committed to implementing a comprehensive, fair and equitable restructuring of the GDP-linked securities," the Finance Ministry told Bloomberg last week, saying that the non-payment is linked to a broader restructuring of the country's obligations.

Ukraine's economy has struggled in the face of Russia's war. Its GDP fell drastically in the early days of Russia's full-scale invasion and has steadily grown since.

The European Bank for Development and Reconstruction (EBRD) forecasts Ukraine's GDP will grow 3.3% in 2025, down from an initial forecast expecting growth of 3.5%.

"The GDP warrants were designed for a world that no longer exists. Ukraine's modest economic growth in 2023 was not a sign of surging prosperity but a fragile rebound from a nearly 30% downturn caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion," Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko said in April.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that failure to resolve the GDP warrant issue could threaten further debt restructuring, as well as an ongoing $15.6 billion bailout program, the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Ukraine has said it will seek to abide by its agreements with the IMF.

Kyiv reached an agreement with some of its creditors in July 2024 to restructure more than $20 billion in international bonds, allowing Ukraine to avoid default amid Russia's full-scale war. The Finance Ministry announced last September it had reduced state debt by $9 billion after completing an external debt restructuring process.

 
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oil&gas

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Ghawar
New video captures Ukraine's bold drone strike on Russian planes
Ukraine needs to keep up with drone attacks on Russian targets
now that it is running out of eager-to-die fresh troops. Getting more
Russians killed (at the expense of Ukrainian lives) is how Zelensky can
keep money flowing into Ukraine from its masters to pay off its debt.
 

squeezer

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Ukraine needs to keep up with drone attacks on Russian targets
now that it is running out of eager-to-die fresh troops. Getting more
Russians killed (at the expense of Ukrainian lives) is how Zelensky can
keep money flowing into Ukraine from its masters to pay off its debt.
Yup, terrible when Ukraine attacks your poor hero and mentor eh?

I don't see you whining when Putin is sending in bombs to hit Ukrainian cities.
 

oil&gas

Well-known member
Apr 16, 2002
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Ghawar
Yup, terrible when Ukraine attacks your poor hero and mentor eh?

I don't see you whining when Putin is sending in bombs to hit Ukrainian cities.
I'll be whining if we are going to send generous aid to Putin like Trudeau did
to Zelensky and end up having to spend more money on our own defence.

It is pathetic cheering the war from either side of the conflict.

I had predicted the war to end no later than the middle of
2025. It turns out I will be wrong in all likelihood. The war
now has no end in sight.
 
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squeezer

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I'll be whining if we are going to send generous aid to Putin like Trudeau did
to Zelensky and end up having to spend more money on our own defence.

It is pathetic cheering the war from either side of the conflict.

I had predicted the war to end no later than the middle of
2025. It turns out I will be wrong in all likelihood. The war
now has no end in sight.
So, when should Putin be stopped? If he conquers Ukraine and decides Malta is next, do we sit by and clutch our $$$$$? How about after Malta and now he's ready to hit a NATO country, now what?
 
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onthebottom

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How does this end?
 

nottyboi

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Either nottyboi is right and Ukraine will be finished any day now or...

Another "Russia is out of ammo" clown? You have the NATO sec Gen saying Russia is producing 4x the armaments of NATO, then they have access to NK, CHiense and IRanians supplies. How can anyone believe this nonsense. Why would Russia strike right away when Ukraine is girding for it? In any case we will know this is true if Russia starts using nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
 

Frankfooter

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Another "Russia is out of ammo" clown? You have the NATO sec Gen saying Russia is producing 4x the armaments of NATO, then they have access to NK, CHiense and IRanians supplies. How can anyone believe this nonsense. Why would Russia strike right away when Ukraine is girding for it? In any case we will know this is true if Russia starts using nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
If Russia uses nukes that means they have nothing else.
You think Putin would start a nuclear war?
 

nottyboi

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If Russia uses nukes that means they have nothing else.
You think Putin would start a nuclear war?
If they have nothing else, so no. They have no shortage of ammo or weapons. But they do view this war as existential so they will win it. If there is a real danger of losing it they will use nukes. But for now there is not.
 

Insidious Von

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Poland and Romania armed to the teeth, Germany rearming abd Italy launched it's 3rd Aircraft Carrier in April. Meanwhile you can assume what's on TACOs mind every time he plants his sprawling ass in a chair.

 
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Frankfooter

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Poland and Romania armed to the teeth, Germany rearming abd Italy launched it's 3rd Aircraft Carrier in April. Meanwhile you can assume what's on TACOs mind every time he plants his sprawling ass in a chair.

How out of it does the TACO king have to be to ask if it was a bad day for Germany when Hitler was removed from power?
 

nottyboi

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Frankfooter

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nottyboi

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So no bombers to replace the ones destroyed in Operation Spiderweb.
Just fighters they are afraid to use over Ukrainian air.
The only strategic bomber in production in Russia today is the TU 160 and they only plan to build 10 of these by 2027 and another 40 by 2035. They have lots of TU-95 in reserve as well as many TU-22s so they will probably upgrade those and put a few back into service if they feel they need to replace the losses or accelerate the PAK-DA program. The SU-34 can already carry so a few of those can probably replace a TU-95
 
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onthebottom

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Poland and Romania armed to the teeth, Germany rearming abd Italy launched it's 3rd Aircraft Carrier in April. Meanwhile you can assume what's on TACOs mind every time he plants his sprawling ass in a chair.

IMG_2505.jpeg
 
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mandrill

monkey
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Gee, Notty. With all those Russian advantages, I'm not sure why they've taken no significant Ukrainian territory in 2 years.

Oh that's right. Russia's "playing too nice and not even trying".....

😹 😹 😹 😹 😹 😹 😹 😹 😹 😹

The sad thing is that you - and Oily - tell us that Russia has "overwhelming might" and is about to win every few weeks............ and nothing happens.

🥴
 
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