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Ukraine’s exhausted troops in Russia told to cling on and wait for Trump

oil&gas

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Paul Adams
BBC diplomatic correspondent

The tone is dark, even angry.

“The situation is getting worse every day.”

“We don’t see the goal. Our land is not here.”

Almost four months after Ukrainian troops launched a lightning offensive into the Russian region of Kursk, text messages from soldiers fighting there paint a dismal picture of a battle they don’t properly understand and fear they might be losing.

We’ve been in contact, via Telegram, with several soldiers serving in Kursk, one of whom has recently left. We’ve agreed not to identify any of them.

None of the names in this article are real.

They speak of dire weather conditions and a chronic lack of sleep caused by Russia’s constant bombardment, which includes the use of terrifying, 3,000kg glide bombs.

They’re also in retreat, with Russian forces gradually retaking territory.

“This trend will continue,” Pavlo wrote on 26 November. “It’s only a matter of time.”

Pavlo spoke of immense fatigue, the lack of rotation and the arrival of units, made up largely of middle-aged men, brought directly from other fronts with little or no time to rest in between.

To hear soldiers complain - about their commanding officers, orders and lack of equipment - is hardly unusual. It’s what soldiers often do in difficult circumstances.

Under immense pressure from the enemy and with winter setting in, it would be surprising to hear much optimism.

But the messages we’ve received are almost uniformly bleak, suggesting that motivation is a problem.

Some questioned whether one of the operation’s initial goals - to divert Russian soldiers from Ukraine’s eastern front - had worked.

The orders now, they said, were to hang onto this small sliver of Russian territory until
a new US president, with new policies, arrives in the White House at the end of January.

“The main task facing us is to hold the maximum territory until Trump’s inauguration and the start of negotiations,” Pavlo said. “In order to exchange it for something later. No-one knows what.”

Towards the end of November, President Zelensky indicated that both sides had the change of US administration in mind.

“I am sure that he [Putin] wants to push us out by 20 January,” he said.

“It is very important for him to demonstrate that he controls the situation. But he does not control the situation.”

In an effort to help Ukraine thwart Russian counterattacks in Kursk, the US, UK and France have all permitted Kyiv to use long-range weapons on targets inside Russia.

It doesn’t seem to have done much to lift spirits.

“No-one sits in a cold trench and prays for missiles,” Pavlo said.

“We live and fight here and now. And missiles fly somewhere else.”

Atacms and Storm Shadow missiles may have been used to powerful, even
devastating, effect on distant command posts and ammunition dumps, but such successes seem remote to soldiers on the front lines.

“We don’t talk about missiles,” Myroslav said. “In the bunkers we talk about family and rotation. About simple things.”

For Ukraine, Russia’s slow, grinding advance in eastern Ukraine underlines the necessity of clinging on in Kursk.

In October alone, Russia was able to occupy an estimated 500 sq km of Ukrainian territory, the most it’s taken since the early days of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

By contrast, Ukraine has already lost around 40% of the territory it seized in Kursk in August.

“The key is not to capture but to hold,” Vadym said, “and we’re struggling a bit with that.”

Despite the losses, Vadym thinks the Kursk campaign is still vital.

“It did manage to divert some [Russian] forces from the Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv regions,” he said.

But some of the soldiers we spoke to said they felt they were in the wrong place, that it was more important to be on Ukraine’s eastern front, rather than occupying part of Russia.

“Our place should have been there [in eastern Ukraine], not here in someone else’s land,” Pavlo said. “We don’t need these Kursk forests, in which we left so many comrades.”

And despite weeks of reports suggesting that as many as 10,000 North Korean troops have been sent to Kursk to join the Russian counter-offensive, the soldiers we’ve been in contact have yet to encounter them.

“I haven’t seen or heard anything about Koreans, alive or dead,” Vadym responded when we asked about the reports.

The Ukrainian military has released recordings which it says are intercepts of North Korean radio communications.

Soldiers said they had been told to capture at least one North Korean prisoner, preferably with documents.

They spoke of rewards - drones or extra leave - being offered to anyone who successfully captures a North Korean soldier.

“It’s very difficult to find a Korean in the dark Kursk forest,” Pavlo noted sarcastically. “Especially if he’s not here.”

Veterans of previous doomed operations see parallels in what’s happening in Kursk.

From October 2023 until July this year, Ukrainian forces attempted to hold onto a tiny bridgehead at Krynky, on the left bank of the Dnipro River, some 25 miles (40km) upstream from the liberated city of Kherson.

The bridgehead, initially intended as a possible springboard for advances further into Russian-held territory in southern Ukraine, was eventually lost.

The operation was hugely costly. As many as 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers are thought to have been killed or gone missing.

Some came to see it as a stunt, designed to distract attention from the lack of progress elsewhere.

They fear something similar might be happening in Kursk

“Good idea but bad implementation,” says Myroslav, a marine officer who served in Krynky and is now in Kursk.

“Media effect, but no military result.”

Military analysts insist that for all the hardship, the Kursk campaign continues to play an important role.

“It’s the only area where we maintain the initiative,” Serhiy Kuzan, of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre, told me.

He acknowledged that Ukrainian forces were experiencing “incredibly difficult conditions” in Kursk, but said Russia was devoting vast resources to ejecting them - resources which it would prefer to be using elsewhere.

“The longer we can hold this Kursk front - with adequate equipment, artillery, Himars and of course long-range weapons to strike their rear - the better,” he said.

In Kyiv, the senior commanders stand by the Kursk operation, arguing that it’s still reaping military and political rewards.

"This situation annoys Putin,” one said recently, on condition of anonymity. “He is suffering heavy losses there."

As for how long Ukrainian troops would be able to hold out in Kursk, the answer was straightforward.

"As long as it is feasible from the military point of view."

 

oil&gas

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‘NUTS!’ Keith Kellogg is just the right man to deal with Putin
MARK TOTH AND JONATHAN SWEET
12/05/24

It’s about to get “nuts” for retired U.S. Army Lt. General Keith Kellogg.

President-elect Donald Trump has tapped him as his special envoy to Ukraine and Russia. Trump is tasking the former Special Operations Command Europe and 82nd Airborne Division commander with finding a comprehensive peace settlement between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin is likely expecting Trump’s former interim national security advisor to cave to Putin’s every demand. And its demands will be tantamount to the complete capitulation of Ukraine.

Those types of demands typically come from a position of strength, however, and the Kremlin has none. Thirty-four months and 747,340 casualties into what was supposed to be a 10-day “special military operation” in Ukraine, Russia is now dependent upon Iran and North Korea for munitions and soldiers. The Russian navy has now also abandoned the Mediterranean seaport of Tartus as Syrian rebels advance toward Damascus.

Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeyev clearly believes Kellogg is as good as duped. Putin’s crony, also known as the Orthodox Oligarch, told the Financial Times that when “Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and then tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”

Malofeyev continued saying, “That’d be the whole negotiation.” And then he proceeded to argue that any negotiation must “encompass the future of Europe and the world, not just the future of Ukraine.”

Sorry, Konstantin, but that isn’t going to happen. Kellogg is not going to roll over or allow himself to be steamrolled. He is not a politician and knows a smoke screen when he sees one.

Kellogg is no obsequious Tucker Carlson type. Nor will he be as easily fooled at a time when the scent of the Kremlin’s weakness is stinking up the room.

For his part, Carlson was back yet again in Moscow earlier this week to interview Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. In a promo touting his sit-down with Lavrov, Carlson made it clear that he had bought into Putin’s latest nuclear bluff. Carlson naively argued that “the Biden administration has driven the U.S. ever closer to a nuclear conflict with Russia.”

In reality, we are nowhere near nuclear war. Carlson may be afraid of Putin’s nuclear arsenal and state-owned RT’s incessant nuclear fear mongering. But Kellogg is not. He knows that Putin cannot resort to the use of nuclear weapons, which would be game over for everyone. In the 60s, it was called mutual assured destruction. Rather, as evinced in his recent interview on Fox News, Kellogg recognizes that Russia is now finding itself desperate as Putin’s military and diplomatic positions around the world rapidly deteriorate and fall apart under his failed wartime leadership.

Syria is just the latest example, where Russian ground forces have been forced by rebels to retreat southward toward Damascus. Russia has maintained a naval presence at Tartus since 1971, and presently the port is Putin’s only Mediterranean facility. This comes after Moscow was forced to leave naval ports in Crimea and the Sea of Azov, and also after Russian aggression induced Sweden and Finland to join NATO, effectively turning the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake. This has handcuffed Russian naval operations in Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg.

The situation is also rapidly falling apart for Putin’s allies in Georgia. Ongoing democracy protests in Tbilisi, that nation’s capital, are threatening longtime influence and effective control of the country. The unrest also jeopardizes Putin’s anticipated new Black Sea Fleet headquarters, which are being constructed in Abkhazia.

Other erstwhile Russian allies are thumbing their noses at Putin as well. Moldova just voted to join the European Union in October. Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev recently brushed off Putin’s reference to his nation as a “Russian-speaking country” by addressing his citizens in his native Kazakh.

Syria, Georgia, Moldova and Kazakhstan all have one thing in common. Putin is too overstretched for an effective military intervention in any of them. Russian colonialism may finally have run its course.

Kellogg knows this going into January 20. Now is a time for Trump’s “maximum pressure” foreign policy to be brought to bear on Putin. It is not a time to capitulate in Ukraine or to fall for Putin’s nuclear bluffing.

Kellogg also knows that Russia is, in effect, perpetrating a global war against the U.S. and its Western allies. It is not, as we have often stated, Hollywood’s version — no atomic mushroom clouds or catastrophic day-after radioactive scenarios. Rather, it is a third global war fought with a thousand small cuts.

Putin’s is a multi-regional and multi-domain war being fought in Ukraine and in the Sahel in Africa and in many places in between, including the areas of Israel struck by Hamas’s heinous Oct. 7 terrorist attack, which served as cover for his counteroffensive in Avdiivka, Ukraine. Other arenas of this war include Russia’s weaponization of space, espionage, sabotage and assassination campaigns against targets in Europe and the U.S.

Putin even took aim at the Paris Olympics in 2023 by hinting at terrorist attacks. Likewise, a plot with Russian origins was discovered that was intended to take down DHL freight aircraft along routes between Europe and the U.S. and Canada.

Although Putin’s conventional military has failed on Ukrainian battlefields, his intelligence services have been successful at creating chaos throughout the world and undermining democracies.

Kellogg also recognizes that this has become a truly global war. A Western loss in Ukraine to Russia would represent a win for Putin’s Axis of Evil allies in China, Iran and North Korea. Ukraine, simply put, cannot be separated from the other strategic and existential threats facing the U.S. and its national security.

Come January, Kellogg’s greatest challenge will perhaps be ensuring that Trump realizes Putin and his Kremlin cronies are counting on him to make a bad deal that will come at the expense of Western security interests in Eastern Europe.

Kellogg cut his teeth with the 101st Airborne in the killing fields of Vietnam. That experience surely prepared him well for this moment. If the need arises, he is the right man to tell Putin and Lavrov “NUTS!”, just as his 101st Airborne forebear, Gen. Anthony McAuliffe, bluntly told the Nazis at Bastogne during World War II.

 

oil&gas

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Keith Kellogg's Plan to End Ukraine War

Keith Kellogg, the retired lieutenant general nominated by Donald Trump as special Ukrainian peace envoy, has previously said any U.S. policy to end the war should include demanding a ceasefire and negotiated settlement.

Kellogg, 80, who served as national security adviser to former Vice President Mike Pence during the previous GOP administration, will be the key figure to end the war that the president-elect Trump has always said he could solve quickly. Newsweek has contacted the Trump team for comment.

In May, Kellogg released a plan coauthored with former Trump aide Fred Fleitz, which called for military aid to Ukraine to cease unless it agreed to hold peace negotiations with Russia. It said the conflict should be frozen along its current front lines, which as it stands, would leave Russia controlling around one-fifth of Ukrainian territory.

The document outlined how there should be a "formal U.S. policy to seek a ceasefire and negotiated settlement of the Ukraine conflict."

It said that the U.S. would continue to provide weapons and assistance to Ukraine to make sure Moscow makes "no further advances and will not attack again after a ceasefire or peace agreement." Further U.S. military aid for Kyiv would "require Ukraine to participate in peace talks with Russia."

The document says, to bring Vladimir Putin to the table, the U.S. and its NATO partners should delay Ukraine's membership in the alliance in exchange for security guarantees.

Kyiv should also realize it will take a long time to regain all its occupied territory, and the partial lifting of sanctions on Russia could push the Kremlin toward peace. Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022.

Will Trump End the War in Ukraine?
It is unclear whether Trump will use the plan cowritten by Kellogg to end the war, which the president-elect said he could do before his inauguration on January 20, 2025.

"Donald Trump promised he would fix the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, but that is impossible, and even he probably did not believe that," Cédomir Nestorovic, geopolitics professor at ESSEC Business School, told Newsweek.

"On the other hand, he would like to act quickly, and for that, he will push for an exchange of territories against peace," Nestorovic said, although "no one knows what kind of territories and what kind of peace that entails."

"As far as Putin is concerned, he would like to act quickly, too. The deadline of January 20 is appealing to him and Trump, because the American president could start his term without the Ukraine conflict," Nestorovic said.

Kellogg's previous comments on 'endless' Ukraine war
At the start of Putin's full-scale invasion, Kellogg disparaged the Russian army as the "Vermont National Guard with nuclear weapons. We thought these guys were really 10 feet tall.' They're not. They're about 5.5," he told Fox & Friends in March 2022.

In a November 2023 paper for the America First Policy Institute, which he cochairs, Kellogg took aim at the Biden administration's incremental arming of Ukraine and failure to establish an end state. He said that they had "entrapped America in an endless war."

Kellogg added that Washington "must abandon" the idea that the war is a zero-sum game in which Putin's removal and the total defeat of Russia is the only acceptable outcome.

During an interview with Voice of America in July 2024, Kellogg reiterated his accusation that the Biden administration and the West had been too cautious in their help for Ukraine.

"Have the United States given Ukraine a support of F-16s? No. Did we provide long-range fires early for the Ukrainians to shoot in Russians? No. Did we provide permission for them to shoot deep into Russia? No," Kellogg said.

"I blame this administration and the West to a degree for not supporting Ukraine when they should have," he said, adding that "you need to give them (Russia) reasons to negotiate."

Most recently, Kellogg told Fox News on November 22 that Biden's decision to grant Ukraine permission to use longer-range ATACMS in Russian territory could help the incoming president.

"He has actually given President Trump more leverage, because now he can pull back, he can go left, he can go right, he can do something," Kellogg said.

 

Insidious Von

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Oil&Gas with his Russian cacarella, may he live long and prosper. Do the Russians have the firepower to pull off a Khe Sanh.

 
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Insidious Von

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Can the Russians fight a Khe Sanh? They thought the Syrians would surrender by terror bombing hospitals, schools and day care centers. It didn't, it made them more determined than ever to rid themselves of the pestilence named Assad.

Khe Sanh could have become America's Dien Bien Phu.

 

oil&gas

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After Trump was tardy, Zelenskyy-Macron trilateral was all smiles and handshakes
DECEMBER 7, 2024
VICTOR GOURY-LAFFONT

PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron achieved a diplomatic milestone Saturday, hosting the first in-person meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and United States President-elect Donald Trump since he won the election this past November.

This was Trump’s first trip abroad since securing a second presidential term. It got off to a rocky start as the U.S. president-elect arrived more than 40 minutes late for his meeting with Macron and greeted the French president with a characteristically intense and awkward handshake and partial embrace.

Upon arrival, Macron said Trump’s visit was “great honor for French people” while Trump looked back fondly on the “great relationship” the two men enjoyed during his first administration.

“It certainly seems like the world is going a little crazy right now,” Trump added.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron for hosting a “good and productive trilateral meeting” ahead of the reopening of the Notre Dame Cathedral.

This meeting, which lasted less than an hour, was the first in-person encounter between Zelenskyy and Trump since he won the election this past November; Trump and Zelenskyy had spoken over the phone shortly after the race was called.

“We all want this war to end as soon as possible and in a just way. We spoke about our people, the situation on the ground, and a just peace,” Zelenskyy wrote on X. “We agreed to continue working together and keep in contact. Peace through strength is possible.”

Macron called on the “United States, Ukraine, and France” to “continue [their] joint efforts for peace and security.”

Zelenskyy and Trump were initially slated to meet with Macron separately before the French president set up a last-minute trilateral meeting. The three went to Notre Dame afterwards, with Zelenskyy receiving a long round of applause upon entering the cathedral.

During the ceremony, Macron underlined the sadness, “from Rome to Moscow” — triggered by the 2019 fire that destroyed the ancient cathedral — as well as the “unprecedented fraternity” it took to rebuild it through donations and collective work.

Dozens of other global leaders and high-profile figures also attended the Notre Dame reopening ceremony, including Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Britain’s Prince William, current U.S. First Lady Jill Biden and Trump-allied tech tycoon Elon Musk.

Heads of state and government will head to the Elysée Palace after the ceremony for a dinner reception during which more diplomatic discussion is expected.

Trump’s election win last month sparked widespread concern in Europe about the future of U.S. support for Ukraine in its defense against Russia. The president-elect’s personnel picks provide little clarity on what lies ahead; his proposed team includes some Russia hawks and pro-NATO figures such as national security advisor Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio for secretary of State. Yet they also include figures such as Pete Hegseth — Trump’s contentious pick for defense secretary — and Vice President-elect JD Vance, who have criticized NATO and called for cutting U.S. aid to Ukraine.

 

Bucktee

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It's a war of attrition and Russia has more men and more military might than Ukraine. The longer the war drags on, the more Ukraine is devastated. Ukraine has already lost, it's just a matter of how great the loss is going to be.
 
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