TSX down 450 points
- Thread starter danmand
- Start date
What is the correlation between the stock market and the real economy? It seems to me that it is a factor of 10. For example, the real economy declines 5%, the stock market declines 50%. If the real economy declines 10%, then the stock market will decline 100%. Scary.danmand said:
What's worse is that it seems like all the growth in the market since 2000 was predicated upon those lies. In other words, it will not be possible to recover to those pre-collapse levels anytime soon because it was all built on a lie.MichaelZzzz said:
Yes, "Flip this House" certainly demonstrated how silly the whole idea of sky rocketing home values became - when everyone and his brother suddenly became Donald Trump.
People...
there is a lot more downward movement to go.
What WILL happen is people will just dive out of stocks and drive prices lower and lower. With no cash, companies go bankrupt.....Plus world economies are so far behind, the few jobs left go to these people who are not like us needy north americans and will build much cheaper.
In fact, these THIRD WORLD economies may well recover much faster than north america...
The depression is gonna seem like a cake walk.
Only guaranteed jobs....hmm..farmers, police, army...oh yes..SP also
And no...I am not relying on the media hype to form this opinion.... I posted these same thoughts for the past two years!!!!
there is a lot more downward movement to go.
What WILL happen is people will just dive out of stocks and drive prices lower and lower. With no cash, companies go bankrupt.....Plus world economies are so far behind, the few jobs left go to these people who are not like us needy north americans and will build much cheaper.
In fact, these THIRD WORLD economies may well recover much faster than north america...
The depression is gonna seem like a cake walk.
Only guaranteed jobs....hmm..farmers, police, army...oh yes..SP also
And no...I am not relying on the media hype to form this opinion.... I posted these same thoughts for the past two years!!!!
Buy, Buy, Buy. No, oh shit, Sell, Sell, Sell. Put your money into Money Market Funds. Oh shit, the management fee is higher than the actual return. Buy the blue chips. Oh Shit! GE just went in the toilet and cut the dividend.
Buy US gov't bonds!! Oh Shit, they are going to repay in American Pesos.
Fuck It! Hire an escort for a week.
Buy US gov't bonds!! Oh Shit, they are going to repay in American Pesos.
Fuck It! Hire an escort for a week.
With respect to real estate prices and flipping houses, I look at it this way.....
I bought my house in 96 (It was a total fixer upper. It needed EVERYTHING) But all that aside.
In 96, I had 6 years working experience in my field. I bought my house (along with my ex. for 5 times my then salary.)
At the real estate peak in Toronto, my house was going for about 10 times the salary of a similar experienced person in my field (say with 6 years of experience)
In other words, the price of my house had outpaced the salary increases (inflation) by 2 fold.
How does one justify that? There's only one way - growth. Yes Toronto has grown (largely by immigration), but that growth did not justify a double in the cost of the affordability of your average Toronto Home. Something had to give and it did.
Now all that said, I honestly do not think that the world is going to collapse as a result of all this. (Knock on wood.) There will be a contraction, and hopefully as a result NEW REGULATIONS are put in place to prevent this sort of crap from happening again. (Mainly in the US and Europe since Canada never had a subprime mortgage industry in the first place.)
I bought my house in 96 (It was a total fixer upper. It needed EVERYTHING) But all that aside.
In 96, I had 6 years working experience in my field. I bought my house (along with my ex. for 5 times my then salary.)
At the real estate peak in Toronto, my house was going for about 10 times the salary of a similar experienced person in my field (say with 6 years of experience)
In other words, the price of my house had outpaced the salary increases (inflation) by 2 fold.
How does one justify that? There's only one way - growth. Yes Toronto has grown (largely by immigration), but that growth did not justify a double in the cost of the affordability of your average Toronto Home. Something had to give and it did.
Now all that said, I honestly do not think that the world is going to collapse as a result of all this. (Knock on wood.) There will be a contraction, and hopefully as a result NEW REGULATIONS are put in place to prevent this sort of crap from happening again. (Mainly in the US and Europe since Canada never had a subprime mortgage industry in the first place.)
Hold on for tomorrow. Both Geithner and Bernanke are publicly speaking. Expect another tanking.
To help offset falling equity prices, I'm writing covered call options against my long positions, on a good day and buying them back on a bad day...like today. Helps mitigate the falling prices.
Remember...its always darkest just before dawn.
To help offset falling equity prices, I'm writing covered call options against my long positions, on a good day and buying them back on a bad day...like today. Helps mitigate the falling prices.
Remember...its always darkest just before dawn.
Last time Geithner opened his mouth is was expensive, let's hope he actually has something to say this time....BottomsUp said:Hold on for tomorrow. Both Geithner and Bernanke are publicly speaking. Expect another tanking.
To help offset falling equity prices, I'm writing covered call options against my long positions, on a good day and buying them back on a bad day...like today. Helps mitigate the falling prices.
Remember...its always darkest just before dawn.
OTB
