Note that this article was reported before the day of
Zelensky's disastrous meeting with Trump.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ted Snider
February 26, 2025
Normally, it is the country that defeated you in war, and not the country that defended you, that pillages you after the war. Unfortunately for Ukraine, its biggest military defender is set to pillage its resources as the two countries have now signed a minerals agreement after Trump warned that a refusal to sign would have led to “a lot of problems” for Ukraine.
Many mistakes have been made in the war over Ukraine’s minerals: Zelensky may have made a mistake in his strategy, and Trump may be mistaken in facts.
Offering Ukraine’s natural resources to the U.S. was Ukraine’s idea. As Biden yielded the White House to Trump, the Zelensky team saw Trump as less of a cold warrior and more of a transactional businessman. So, their strategy took on a new tone.
When Zelensky pitched his Ukrainian Victory Plan to the United States, he introduced a new idea: “[j]oint protection by the US and the EU of Ukraine’s critical natural resources and joint use of their economic potential.” In exchange for sustained and increased military aid, Zelensky offered the U.S and EU “an agreement… that would allow for joint investments and use of Ukraine’s natural resources, which Zelenskiy said were worth trillions of dollars.”
According to The Washington Post, Ukraine’s goal was to “convince Trump that Ukraine is not a charity case but a cost-effective economic and geostrategic opportunity that will ultimately enrich and secure the United States and its interests.”
But Zelensky’s team’s strategy was risky, and they may have miscalculated their negotiating partner. They may not have taken into consideration enough that Trump likes to be the one to come out on top of a deal or that Trump, who once called Zelensky “the greatest salesman on earth” because “[e]very time Zelensky comes to the United States he walks away with $100 billion,” never thought the U.S. should have been giving so much to Ukraine.
The strategy of buying future military aid with natural resources underwent a subtle but worrying change for Ukraine when U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham repeated the idea but changed the tense. Graham promised that the deal will “get our money back.” Where Zelensky offered Ukraine’s minerals as payment for future security needs, Graham framed it as payment for past security aid. Zelensky’s team had set its own trap.
Instead of asking for a share of Ukraine’s natural resources in exchange for future security guarantees for Ukraine, Trump demanded Ukraine’s natural resources as payment for past military aid with no offer of security guarantees. And he demanded a lot: half of Ukraine’s rare earth and other minerals until the amount of $500 billion had been paid back.
Zelensky, furious, refused. But that refusal infuriated Trump who shot back at Zelensky, calling him an ineffective dictator who had started the war. On February 24, Trump said, “I’ve been watching this man for years now, as his cities get demolished, as his people get killed, as the soldiers get decimated. I’ve been watching for years, and I’ve been watching him negotiate with no cards. He has no cards, and you get sick of it. You just get sick of it. And I’ve had it.”
The U.S. was angry with Zelensky for publicly rejecting the deal when he had privately been much more receptive. And they were angry with Zelensky for complaining publicly about the U.S. instead of “in a private discussion with American diplomats.”
But if Zelensky’s strategy was mistaken, his complaints were not. Trump is wrong that Zelensky “talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion Dollars, to go into a War that couldn’t be won.” Ukraine was exploring a negotiated peace with Russia in the early days of the war when U.S. President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised Zelensky whatever military and financial aid he needed for as long as he needed it if Ukraine would abandon negotiating with Russia for fighting with Russia.
Zelensky is also correct that Trump is unilaterally altering the agreement between their two countries. He argues that Ukraine should not have to offer up its natural resources to repay U.S. aid because the aid was given as grants, not as loans, and grants do not have to be repaid: “We should not recognize grants as debts. Whether anyone likes it or not. I had agreements with [former U.S. President Joe] Biden, and I had agreements with the U.S. Congress.” When criticizing Biden instead of criticizing Zelensky, Trump seems to concede this fact, complaining that “Biden just gave them money – there was no loan, there was no security, was no anything.” Refusing the U.S. deal, Zelensky promised that he “will not sign what ten generations of Ukrainians will have to pay back.”
Zelensky has also complained that Trump’s pay back figure is inflated. He says that Ukraine has received “100 billion US dollars, not 500, not 350, not 700, but 100 billion US dollars.”
The real deal breaker for Zelensky, though, seems to be that the trading of natural resources is not linked to security guarantees, which, for Ukraine, was the whole point.
In receipt of Ukraine’s rejection, the Trump administration intensified the pressure on Ukraine and told them “to tone it down and take a hard look and sign that deal.” They then returned to the table with a revised offer that was aimed at “fixing the situation” and addressing Ukraine’s concerns.
But though there was apparent progress, and Trump had said that “we’re signing an agreement, hopefully in the next fairly short period of time,” the revised draft seems to be even more onerous in terms of what Ukraine has to pay while still not offering security guarantees in return. According to The New York Times, who has seen the revised offer, it demands that Ukraine not only “relinquish to the United States half of its revenues from natural resources, including minerals, gas and oil” but also “earnings from ports and other infrastructure.” The Times confirms that new proposal “still does not provide any specific security commitments in return from the United States.”
So, for all the same reasons, though both sides say they are “in the final stages of negotiations,” Zelensky, once again, refused to sign.
Going in Zelensky chose a risky strategy, and Trump made factual errors. Trump may have made some risky calculations on the other end too.
“Who knows what rare earth is worth, you know, but at least it’s something,” Trump has said. But it may not be worth as much as he hopes.
Just how great a quantity of minerals Ukraine actually has and what it is actually worth is “hotly debated among experts.” Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has admitted that “Ukraine needs to update its geological survey.” And Ukrainian officials say that “[m]uch exploration remains to be done to assess the true value of the country’s critical minerals.”
According to Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas, when Zelensky presented his Ukrainian Victory Plan, he “talked up – way, way up – the potential of the country’s mineral resources.” Blas says that Ukraine does not have significant rare earth minerals, and that, though they do have critical minerals, “they certainly aren’t worth Trump’s expressed $500 billion.” Of the rare earth minerals Ukraine might have, at least some of them are “relatively difficult” to mine. And “any new fields would likely take years and significant investment to develop,” according to “Ukrainian officials and energy experts” cited by The New York Times.
And there is another critical fact that the U.S. may not have adequately considered. Trump officials have granted that any thoughts of recovering Ukraine’s lost territory is “an unrealistic objective” and an “illusionary goal.” But almost half of what mineral wealth Ukraine does have is buried under land that is now controlled by Russia.
Ukraine may have felt compelled to give up half the revenues for its minerals, gas and oil as well as from earnings from ports and other infrastructure. It is hard to see how they could resist the American pressure when, according to U.S. officials, Trump was angry enough to consider “withdrawing American military support from Ukraine” and has said there will be “a lot of problems” for Ukraine if they don’t. They may also have felt it necessary to avoid a total breakdown of relations with the United States.
On February 25, Ukraine signed the American deal. Kiev could only claim victory on one item of complaint: the U.S. still demanded half of Ukraine’s revenues but dropped the impossible $500 billion demand. That is some consolation for Ukraine but not much, since the signed draft still contains no reference to U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine.
Once again, the ones who will suffer from the American pillaging of Ukraine will be the people of Ukraine. All of that revenue that will be exported out of the country is money that could now be spent on defense and later spent on rebuilding the tattered economy and reconstructing the shattered nation.
original.antiwar.com
Zelensky's disastrous meeting with Trump.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ted Snider
February 26, 2025
Normally, it is the country that defeated you in war, and not the country that defended you, that pillages you after the war. Unfortunately for Ukraine, its biggest military defender is set to pillage its resources as the two countries have now signed a minerals agreement after Trump warned that a refusal to sign would have led to “a lot of problems” for Ukraine.
Many mistakes have been made in the war over Ukraine’s minerals: Zelensky may have made a mistake in his strategy, and Trump may be mistaken in facts.
Offering Ukraine’s natural resources to the U.S. was Ukraine’s idea. As Biden yielded the White House to Trump, the Zelensky team saw Trump as less of a cold warrior and more of a transactional businessman. So, their strategy took on a new tone.
When Zelensky pitched his Ukrainian Victory Plan to the United States, he introduced a new idea: “[j]oint protection by the US and the EU of Ukraine’s critical natural resources and joint use of their economic potential.” In exchange for sustained and increased military aid, Zelensky offered the U.S and EU “an agreement… that would allow for joint investments and use of Ukraine’s natural resources, which Zelenskiy said were worth trillions of dollars.”
According to The Washington Post, Ukraine’s goal was to “convince Trump that Ukraine is not a charity case but a cost-effective economic and geostrategic opportunity that will ultimately enrich and secure the United States and its interests.”
But Zelensky’s team’s strategy was risky, and they may have miscalculated their negotiating partner. They may not have taken into consideration enough that Trump likes to be the one to come out on top of a deal or that Trump, who once called Zelensky “the greatest salesman on earth” because “[e]very time Zelensky comes to the United States he walks away with $100 billion,” never thought the U.S. should have been giving so much to Ukraine.
The strategy of buying future military aid with natural resources underwent a subtle but worrying change for Ukraine when U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham repeated the idea but changed the tense. Graham promised that the deal will “get our money back.” Where Zelensky offered Ukraine’s minerals as payment for future security needs, Graham framed it as payment for past security aid. Zelensky’s team had set its own trap.
Instead of asking for a share of Ukraine’s natural resources in exchange for future security guarantees for Ukraine, Trump demanded Ukraine’s natural resources as payment for past military aid with no offer of security guarantees. And he demanded a lot: half of Ukraine’s rare earth and other minerals until the amount of $500 billion had been paid back.
Zelensky, furious, refused. But that refusal infuriated Trump who shot back at Zelensky, calling him an ineffective dictator who had started the war. On February 24, Trump said, “I’ve been watching this man for years now, as his cities get demolished, as his people get killed, as the soldiers get decimated. I’ve been watching for years, and I’ve been watching him negotiate with no cards. He has no cards, and you get sick of it. You just get sick of it. And I’ve had it.”
The U.S. was angry with Zelensky for publicly rejecting the deal when he had privately been much more receptive. And they were angry with Zelensky for complaining publicly about the U.S. instead of “in a private discussion with American diplomats.”
But if Zelensky’s strategy was mistaken, his complaints were not. Trump is wrong that Zelensky “talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion Dollars, to go into a War that couldn’t be won.” Ukraine was exploring a negotiated peace with Russia in the early days of the war when U.S. President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised Zelensky whatever military and financial aid he needed for as long as he needed it if Ukraine would abandon negotiating with Russia for fighting with Russia.
Zelensky is also correct that Trump is unilaterally altering the agreement between their two countries. He argues that Ukraine should not have to offer up its natural resources to repay U.S. aid because the aid was given as grants, not as loans, and grants do not have to be repaid: “We should not recognize grants as debts. Whether anyone likes it or not. I had agreements with [former U.S. President Joe] Biden, and I had agreements with the U.S. Congress.” When criticizing Biden instead of criticizing Zelensky, Trump seems to concede this fact, complaining that “Biden just gave them money – there was no loan, there was no security, was no anything.” Refusing the U.S. deal, Zelensky promised that he “will not sign what ten generations of Ukrainians will have to pay back.”
Zelensky has also complained that Trump’s pay back figure is inflated. He says that Ukraine has received “100 billion US dollars, not 500, not 350, not 700, but 100 billion US dollars.”
The real deal breaker for Zelensky, though, seems to be that the trading of natural resources is not linked to security guarantees, which, for Ukraine, was the whole point.
In receipt of Ukraine’s rejection, the Trump administration intensified the pressure on Ukraine and told them “to tone it down and take a hard look and sign that deal.” They then returned to the table with a revised offer that was aimed at “fixing the situation” and addressing Ukraine’s concerns.
But though there was apparent progress, and Trump had said that “we’re signing an agreement, hopefully in the next fairly short period of time,” the revised draft seems to be even more onerous in terms of what Ukraine has to pay while still not offering security guarantees in return. According to The New York Times, who has seen the revised offer, it demands that Ukraine not only “relinquish to the United States half of its revenues from natural resources, including minerals, gas and oil” but also “earnings from ports and other infrastructure.” The Times confirms that new proposal “still does not provide any specific security commitments in return from the United States.”
So, for all the same reasons, though both sides say they are “in the final stages of negotiations,” Zelensky, once again, refused to sign.
Going in Zelensky chose a risky strategy, and Trump made factual errors. Trump may have made some risky calculations on the other end too.
“Who knows what rare earth is worth, you know, but at least it’s something,” Trump has said. But it may not be worth as much as he hopes.
Just how great a quantity of minerals Ukraine actually has and what it is actually worth is “hotly debated among experts.” Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has admitted that “Ukraine needs to update its geological survey.” And Ukrainian officials say that “[m]uch exploration remains to be done to assess the true value of the country’s critical minerals.”
According to Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas, when Zelensky presented his Ukrainian Victory Plan, he “talked up – way, way up – the potential of the country’s mineral resources.” Blas says that Ukraine does not have significant rare earth minerals, and that, though they do have critical minerals, “they certainly aren’t worth Trump’s expressed $500 billion.” Of the rare earth minerals Ukraine might have, at least some of them are “relatively difficult” to mine. And “any new fields would likely take years and significant investment to develop,” according to “Ukrainian officials and energy experts” cited by The New York Times.
And there is another critical fact that the U.S. may not have adequately considered. Trump officials have granted that any thoughts of recovering Ukraine’s lost territory is “an unrealistic objective” and an “illusionary goal.” But almost half of what mineral wealth Ukraine does have is buried under land that is now controlled by Russia.
Ukraine may have felt compelled to give up half the revenues for its minerals, gas and oil as well as from earnings from ports and other infrastructure. It is hard to see how they could resist the American pressure when, according to U.S. officials, Trump was angry enough to consider “withdrawing American military support from Ukraine” and has said there will be “a lot of problems” for Ukraine if they don’t. They may also have felt it necessary to avoid a total breakdown of relations with the United States.
On February 25, Ukraine signed the American deal. Kiev could only claim victory on one item of complaint: the U.S. still demanded half of Ukraine’s revenues but dropped the impossible $500 billion demand. That is some consolation for Ukraine but not much, since the signed draft still contains no reference to U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine.
Once again, the ones who will suffer from the American pillaging of Ukraine will be the people of Ukraine. All of that revenue that will be exported out of the country is money that could now be spent on defense and later spent on rebuilding the tattered economy and reconstructing the shattered nation.
Trump's Mineral Deal and Pillaging Ukraine - Antiwar.com
Normally, it is the country that defeated you in war, and not the country that defended you, that pillages you after the war. Unfortunately for Ukraine, its biggest military defender is set to pillage its resources as the two countries have now signed a minerals agreement after Trump warned that…
