Top 5 States to Watch

[redshank]

What states are you guys going to be watching a week from tonight?

For me

1. Pennsylvania
2. Michigan
3. Wisconsin
4. Florida
5. North Carolina

I love US Presidential elections btw. It's like watching the first 2 days of March Madness. It might be less fair but it's also a lot more interesting than just watching the popular vote

 

[Valcazar]

1. Pennsylvania
2. Florida
3. Wisconsin

I'm interested in Texas and Arizona but that's only if Biden is already crushing other states (far from certain)

 

[kherg007]

1.Pennsylvania
2. Florida
3. NC
4. Arizona
5. Texas

Florida is counting votes now. We should have a sense by 9pm. Biden statistically tied in Texas, Georgia, and Iowa. Earlier we know less shenanigans by Trump and his henchmen.

 

[daywalker11]

1. Pennsylvania
2. Michigan
3. Wisconsin

 

[Frankfooter]

1. Pennsylvania
2. Florida
3. Wisconsin

I'm interested in Texas and Arizona but that's only if Biden is already crushing other states (far from certain)

Florida first, they will report first.
Pennsylvania will take days and days.

 

[y2kmark]

Added SC and KY, since both have US Senators that I would really (really really) like to see go down...

 

[K Douglas]

Obviously interested to see what happens in Michigan and Pennsylvania because they are key states for either candidate. I'm also curious to see what happens in Minnesota and Nevada. Trump lost those states in 2016 by less than 2 percentage points. Minnesota has not voted for a Republican president since 1972 so that would be something.

 

[Valcazar]

Added SC and KY, since both have US Senators that I would really (really really) like to see go down...

I can't see Mitch losing in KY.

 

[Valcazar]

I know lots of people don't like 538 but I don't know anyone else who is letting you do the following exercise with their model.

Explore The Ways Trump Or Biden Could Win The Election

Choose whether President Trump or Joe Biden will win each state in the 2020 presidential election and we’ll recalculate whether they have a path to 270 electoral votes and what their chance is of winning the Electoral College.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

You can pick a winner in a battleground state and because his model involves correlations across a number of inputs, it adjusts the probability in the other states and you can see how it moves the whole model.

Now, the whole fact Silver correlates states instead of treating them like discrete events is part of what people either love or hate about his modeling, so YMMV. It is kind of neat to see, though.

For instance, K Douglas is interested in "What if Trump wins Minnesota?" - If you punch that in, the model moves from thinking Biden would win to thinking Trump will. If he's swung MN, he has probably massively overperformed in other demographics that will win him states throughout the midwest.

 

[daywalker11]

Far right NYT, not feeling so confident.

Opinion | Can We Trust Pennsylvania’s Polls? (Published 2020)

They show Joe Biden clinching crucial counties. So why does it feel so different on the ground here?

www.nytimes.com

 

[y2kmark]

I'm watching the state of hysteria...

 

[smallhatchet]

California

 

[Dutch Oven]

What states are you guys going to be watching a week from tonight?

For me

1. Pennsylvania
2. Michigan
3. Wisconsin
4. Florida
5. North Carolina

I love US Presidential elections btw. It's like watching the first 2 days of March Madness. It might be less fair but it's also a lot more interesting than just watching the popular vote

Your thread talks about 5, but your poll only allows 3 choices.

 

[Fun For All]

I think Biden wins in a rout...the state I'm watching most is South Carolina where I hope Lindsay Graham gets tossed.

 

[TomFord1980]

It's always tough to beat an incumbent but Biden does have China on his side so it could go either way.

 

[redshank]

After 2016 anyone having any trust in the

Your thread talks about 5, but your poll only allows 3 choices.

I switched it and you can change your votes as well

 

[Valcazar]

Far right NYT, not feeling so confident.

These articles are never going to stop. The NYT loves its cletus safaris. (Do you think they are going to do 4 years worth of "let's meet the Biden voter" if Biden wins? Of course not. They will still be interviewing Trump voters.)

"Wow! I don't care if the polls say Biden's ahead, everyone I know is voting Trump," says man hanging out in front of a Trump memorabilia store selling MAGA merchandise. "Look at how these cookies that were featured in an earlier story Eric Trump tweeted about are selling out for Trump!"