The vice index is a proprietary creation of Mr. Zatlin’s, who has developed his own – very accurate – methods of measuring the economy, and who we’ve written about a few times. He culls spending data on gambling, liquor sales and prostitution (he doesn’t disclose exactly how he tracks these) and plugs them into a program that he says allows him to predict overall retail spending with a lead time of several months.
The vice index fell to 101 in December from 105 in November, a range it’s been in all fall and most of the year. What the index is really illustrating, though, is the split in the economy between the haves and have nots, Mr. Zatlin told MoneyBeat. That may not sound like an usual state of affairs, but it’s the lack of spending among lower income levels that’s keeping the economy from taking off, he said.
It’s evident in liquor sales, where beer sales are falling at a faster rate than wine sales, he pointed out. It’s evident in the casinos, where high-end gambling is steady, but the low end continues to contract. And, well, it’s evident among escort services, too. “High-end escorts successfully raised prices,” he wrote in the report. “Lower-end escorts did not.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/01/06/the-vice-index-and-the-state-of-retail-spending/
The vice index fell to 101 in December from 105 in November, a range it’s been in all fall and most of the year. What the index is really illustrating, though, is the split in the economy between the haves and have nots, Mr. Zatlin told MoneyBeat. That may not sound like an usual state of affairs, but it’s the lack of spending among lower income levels that’s keeping the economy from taking off, he said.
It’s evident in liquor sales, where beer sales are falling at a faster rate than wine sales, he pointed out. It’s evident in the casinos, where high-end gambling is steady, but the low end continues to contract. And, well, it’s evident among escort services, too. “High-end escorts successfully raised prices,” he wrote in the report. “Lower-end escorts did not.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/01/06/the-vice-index-and-the-state-of-retail-spending/
