I will sell off and stop trading soon. I am expecting a steep drop , I suspect that we will see a few more smaller drops after that. If the world is lucky, that will be the price we will pay for the pandemic. The big drop may be a month, six months or a year away, For now I will be navigating this swamp slowly and carefully until my indicators tell me conditions are better.
The steep drop is coming....................................
- Thread starter Ceiling Cat
- Start date
Some people are headed for "Coma City" if it keeps dropping. Now you know how the crypto people feel. lol
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Why not load puts on TQQQ with Jan 2024 expiry if your conviction is that strong?
Many people have been predicting it is coming, I have held out and kept investing till this week. Some people speculate, but I use statistical indicators to come to a conclusion. Predictability have become much harder in the last month and profitable opportunities have diminished. Some people speculate without facts to back them up, I use statistical probability.
That is not my style, my troops mobilize with the changing conditions.
Can you please expand on the statistical indicators? What exactly are you looking at? You've made some good calls. TIA.
Energy is dead now. November pick seems like pure luck unless you knew Russia was gonna invade.
You have to get an over-all picture of the situation. Previous performance, historical volume, current moving averages, general sentiment in the stock market as well as the political and financial state of the world. I suspect there will be events of world financial contagions where some bad news hits at a far away place that will effect the world. You have to evaluate the situation and take an educated guess at how much and how long it will effect you.
I try not to count my winnings while I am at the table, there isn't to many instances where I am not. I hold some blue chips like ENB, TRP and SU in reserve for better and stable times. I can not even tell you what my YTD earnings are. I can tell you that I do better than 10% or more a month on most of my picks. I am a hybrid day/swing trader, some of my picks are traded within the same day or week. If you were able to achieve a return of 10% a month and all your earnings are compounded, at the end of the year your money will have tripled. I can consistently do better than 10% per month. One of my recent buys in the last 30 days was : Snowline Gold Corp. (SGD.CN) I achieved +30.62% sold it and then bought it back and achieved + 51.51%. Yes, yes, There is some U-man in a electric orange body suit that keeps hollering that I make the predictions but there is no proof I make any money, but he lives in a cardboard box and smokes crack. He also tells people that his portfolio is at 18% ( for 2 years ), what he does not tell you is that he is at a 18% loss. The fool even provides proof of this himself.
No statistical indicators required, but with statistical indicators I can get a clearer picture. I have achieved near 100% returns in 2 weeks, these are rare occurrences but I have done it once in a while. A little more effort can get you a lot more gain.
BTW - CVE and TOU is a buy this week unless some shit hits the fan. ( TOU being the better of the two )
IMHO, I would not say oil is dead. There are wild cards out there concerning oil, but I can still see opportunities. No one know what will happen when Putin freezes the European continent out this winter or what will happen to oil prices when the war in Ukraine ends. What ever happens there will be opportunities.
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ARX, TOU, SDE, CPG, CVE, TVE, MEG
or a basket of some great growth names in NNRG
I think we still have close to a double to come in many of the intermediate and junior oil and has names and about 40-50% in the senior names. I have about 750k across all my oil and gas names.
Oil will pop when China comes out of COVID, the US ends its release from strategic oil reserve, and the ban on Russian oil becomes effective in December. There wont be enough supply once those three things happen.
or a basket of some great growth names in NNRG
I think we still have close to a double to come in many of the intermediate and junior oil and has names and about 40-50% in the senior names. I have about 750k across all my oil and gas names.
Oil will pop when China comes out of COVID, the US ends its release from strategic oil reserve, and the ban on Russian oil becomes effective in December. There wont be enough supply once those three things happen.
the markets were pumped up steroids, nasdaq shot up to the moon, just like the dotcom bubble Many tech companies such as shopify, meta, netflisx, baba, zoom, docusign are down 80%. And some view them as still overvalued. We are still well above pre pandemic.
Inflation is still sky high, and interest rates will be increased to levels not seen. The economy needs to slow down to curb demand and lower prices. The fed has a difficult job ahead.
Inflation is still sky high, and interest rates will be increased to levels not seen. The economy needs to slow down to curb demand and lower prices. The fed has a difficult job ahead.
So, you are saying that with 7% (inflation) increase in the product and physical equipment prices the value of the firms who produce these products and own this equipment will go down? Maybe in real value, but in nominal (dollar) it will only go up (of course, I am talking of 3+ year horizon, everything shorter is speculation not investment)
