The risks of a Bernie presidency and economic impact of COVID-19 are underpriced

[daywalker11]

Two giant risks: The lack of compliance by the CCP and the surge by Bernie in the polls are completely being mispriced in the US equity markets. I think there is a real risk that once people figure out that the risks of global pandemic outside China are larger and Bloomberg’s campaign implodes we will see a correction in the market by 20-30%. The Q1 Chinese GDP had to contract with 100mm in quarantine and Q2 will also be a write off if they don’t get this under control.

What say you, enthusiasts?

 

[bwq6666]

this post is the nadir of human history.

 

[daywalker11]

this post is the nadir of human history.

Your repose is boring. It’s ok if you don’t have the IQ to respond with anything valuable.

 

[Butler1000]

The same argument was used against Trump.

The fact is Wall st will always find a way to make money. And you won't see a sell off except for a few panic ones in medical industry stocks.

The banks will have to reign in a few excesses, but still make money. And other stocks will surge.

 

[harwell1690]

Don't agree. The markets knew they would like him and even more DID love Trump afterward. He is just good for jobs and business.

(And good for liberal news people to complain about. Newspapers sell better (less, but still better). CNN has zero reputation left, but they got some attention for a while.

Most of us Americans ignore the tweets and the hoaxes. We look at what's important. Poor people now have a job. Blacks, Hispanics, Women, everyone!!! Or a better job, or full employment. Or more pay.

Bernie...well, hard to believe he could win the general. He is too obviously a communist. Certainly a socialist. And can't do math. Most Americans don't want that. (Some might vote for Bernie as the non-TRump, we have so much Trump Derangement Syndrome.) Bloomberg is a joke. So, the market (far bigger than Wall St) is thinking Trump wins, so no worries. And, indeed, maybe good times roll on and on.

COVID19: Hmmm. That is a different matter. Impact on China is big. Agree. And affects many companies in US and CAN, and elsewhere.

But will it last past the start of the warm months? Seems unlikely. And will it break out in other countries BIG by that time?

Probably about done near April 1. (A few weeks to go.)

 

[Butler1000]

He is "obviously a communist".

Because thinking Healthcare is a human right is obviously a bad thing........

Meanwhile a Capitalist Champion like Bloomberg is the one who violated the civil rights of hundreds of thousands of USA citizens.

And it was Republicans who came up with the Patriot act and it's state surveillance system.

 

[jalimon]

Most of us Americans ignore the tweets and the hoaxes. We look at what's important. Poor people now have a job. Blacks, Hispanics, Women, everyone!!! Or a better job, or full employment. Or more pay.

Jobs were already being created before Trump.
During Trump's first 36 months US economy has gained 6.6 million jobsC
Comparable 36-month at the end of Obama added 8.1 million jobs (23% more)

There will be a correction soon. Corporate america has never seen such an high level of debt. Once the economy goes down for just a little while these company will need to start to make cuts to reduce their debt.

Cheers,

 

[daywalker11]

So obviously some different and interesting views here. While the political and moral aspect of some of these issues is worthy of conversation, I am focused on how to position during what I see as a mischaracterization of risk. We have had some interesting moves in gold (GLD), ten year US treasuries (TNX) and the US dollar index (DXY). Germany and Japan have entered into a technical recession and all central banks are rushing to inject stimulus into their economy.

That said, gold and silver using GLD/SLV will continue to be my favourite trade over the next few months.

 

[malata]

That said, gold and silver using GLD/SLV will continue to be my favourite trade over the next few months.

interesting combo. silver may start outpacing gold. do you see this ratio going down with a possible trend reversal?

 

[daywalker11]

interesting combo. silver may start outpacing gold. do you see this ratio going down with a possible trend reversal?

I do. It has started tracking gold a little more closely in recent weeks and making up for some of the gap in the historic ratio. My only
concern is that silver is more of an industrial metal where gold is a tier 1 reserve asset. It the economy gets hit presumably the demand for silver could decline. I think if is safe to own both, gold will surpass $2K and silver will get to $25, imo.

On another note, the largest economic area in Italy is on lockdown and they had to cancel a Serie A game over the weekend due to COVID-19. Add to that Bernie’s win in Nevada and we are getting some pretty negative action on the market today.

 

[malata]

I do. It has started tracking gold a little more closely in recent weeks and making up for some of the gap in the historic ratio. My only
concern is that silver is more of an industrial metal where gold is a tier 1 reserve asset. It the economy gets hit presumably the demand for silver could decline. I think if is safe to own both, gold will surpass $2K and silver will get to $25, imo.

On another note, the largest economic area in Italy is on lockdown and they had to cancel a Serie A game over the weekend due to COVID-19. Add to that Bernie’s win in Nevada and we are getting some pretty negative action on the market today.

what i thought your motivation for this trade. i also see a correlation with the last 3 stock market crashes with gld/slv ratio trending higher. take caution with the price point being near 2019 highs with correction possibly breaking support

the PMI numbers was worst then expected friday along with the fear factor we had some nasty gaps in the financial markets today. south korea shut down a samsung factory after a infected employee was discovered. as I think of stock market corrections being healthy, hopefully this week’s reports (incl. preliminary GDP) would stabilize the markets a bit - in a possible start of a bear market

 

[daywalker11]

Sooooo, yeah. Apparently GLD was not the way to play this decline.

Don’t think we are done yet either. Going to be shorting volatility and buying some oil on the cheap!

 

[malata]

Sooooo, yeah. Apparently GLD was not the way to play this decline.

Don’t think we are done yet either. Going to be shorting volatility and buying some oil on the cheap!

great call on that gld/slv trade. fucker broke right through the 93.50, 2019 high

i'm on the gld futures. correction of 100 pts last 4 days. might be a good buying opportune

i like your play on oil. opec expected to cut production to 1million barrels from projected 600k of hopes of controlling the price

 

[daywalker11]

Yeah, the monetary printing press isn’t going to stop anytime soon. Times like this correlation all goes to 1 and gold is no exception. We will see $2000 gold in the next 12-16 months, imo. If we see a 14 handle I am will start going in GLD heavy. I am accumulating USO and will start writing some calls once we get closer to $50. I was short SPX futures and I will hold those till around 2500 on the S&P. Started buying ZIV to short the mid term VIX contracts. If near term vix gets to 40 I will buy SVXY.

Of course all my longs got wrecked but this will be an epic buying opportunity in the coming weeks.

 

[Smallcock]

this will be an epic buying opportunity in the coming weeks.

Agreed. Another once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. We only get about 5 of them in a lifetime.

 

[Smallcock]

The same argument was used against Trump.

The argument was made by cartoonish late night hosts and left-wing zealot fake news broadcasters. Everyone else in the country knew that Trump would be a boon to the economy and stock prices/

 

[malata]

Two giant risks: The lack of compliance by the CCP and the surge by Bernie in the polls are completely being mispriced in the US equity markets. I think there is a real risk that once people figure out that the risks of global pandemic outside China are larger and Bloomberg’s campaign implodes we will see a correction in the market by 20-30%. The Q1 Chinese GDP had to contract with 100mm in quarantine and Q2 will also be a write off if they don’t get this under control.

What say you, enthusiasts?

DOW surged 700 points once Bernie dropped out of the presidential race on April 7. one less thing to worry about and +1 with China coming out of the pandemic on the optimistic scale

 

[malata]

DOW surged 700 points once Bernie dropped out of the presidential race on April 7. one less thing to worry about and +1 with China coming out of the pandemic on the optimistic scale

with the nasdaq & s&p almost back up close from their historical highs (DOW not to far off), has the V bottom run its course. something to ponder

 

[glamphotographer]

I learned that the stock market is not entirely tied to the current economy and political situation. So if you think Trump or Biden have something to do with it, you're generally wrong. Rather giant investment firms like Blackrock control most of the market.

 

[Ceiling Cat]

The economy is closely connected to the stock market, in normal times. The market is over confident at this time because many people believe that the governments of the world will print money and spend our way out of recession/depression. There are only so many times that the government can send out stimulus checks. The unemployment stats for May stands at 25.1 million unemployed for the USA and 2 million unemployed for Canada. The June stats are due out for tomorrow, I expect that it will be much worse than the figures for last month. You will see how it will effect the stock markets tomorrow and into next week.

The confidence in the economy will diminish as the bad news come rolling in.