What is the next big meteor shower? According to E. Lyytinen and P. Jenniskens, the comet 209P/LINEAR (2004 CB) will cause it in 2014. We checked is and actually confirm this prediction by running our meteor shower prediction model. http://www.imcce.fr/langues/en/ephe...r=year&body=Earth&year=2014&shower=209_LINEAR
Here is the location of the meteoroid stream ejected by the comet at the Earth in 2014:
It is clear the the Earth will cross it on May 24th around 7:40 UT. Now the crucial question is to know the level of the shower: will it be an outburst or a storm?
The estimate of level of the shower is based on photometric measurements of the comet. Very few data are currently available (as on Oct. 2014). So far, given the observations, we estimate a ZHR of 100/hr to 400/hr, which is an excellent outburst! But this shower can become an exceptional one. Indeed, given the current orbit of the comet (from JPL HORIZONS ephemerids database), ALL THE TRAILS EJECTED BETWEEN 1803 AND 1924 DO FALL IN THE EARTH PATH IN MAY 2014!!! As a consequence, this shower might as well be a storm. But how to definitely know whether or not it will be a storm?
Where can we observe the meteor shower?
Given the time of the maximum and from preliminary work, N.America (Canada and Northern US) seems to be the best location so far, BUT ACCURATE DETERMINATION HAS NOT BEEN PERFORMED YET (=preliminary result). One should NOT go too much north, as at this time of the year the Sun is always above the horizon at the North pole. One should NOT go too much South, as the radiant gets lower above the horizon. It will be a few days prior to new Moon, which is a good news. However the Moon will rise a few dozen minutes before the maximum.
To view the orbit diagram http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=209p;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=0#orb
Here is the location of the meteoroid stream ejected by the comet at the Earth in 2014:
It is clear the the Earth will cross it on May 24th around 7:40 UT. Now the crucial question is to know the level of the shower: will it be an outburst or a storm?
The estimate of level of the shower is based on photometric measurements of the comet. Very few data are currently available (as on Oct. 2014). So far, given the observations, we estimate a ZHR of 100/hr to 400/hr, which is an excellent outburst! But this shower can become an exceptional one. Indeed, given the current orbit of the comet (from JPL HORIZONS ephemerids database), ALL THE TRAILS EJECTED BETWEEN 1803 AND 1924 DO FALL IN THE EARTH PATH IN MAY 2014!!! As a consequence, this shower might as well be a storm. But how to definitely know whether or not it will be a storm?
Where can we observe the meteor shower?
Given the time of the maximum and from preliminary work, N.America (Canada and Northern US) seems to be the best location so far, BUT ACCURATE DETERMINATION HAS NOT BEEN PERFORMED YET (=preliminary result). One should NOT go too much north, as at this time of the year the Sun is always above the horizon at the North pole. One should NOT go too much South, as the radiant gets lower above the horizon. It will be a few days prior to new Moon, which is a good news. However the Moon will rise a few dozen minutes before the maximum.
To view the orbit diagram http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=209p;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=0#orb
