If the far right gains control of Parliament in the EU's second-largest country, Europe will fundamentally change.
Oct 09, 2025
Brussels' fears that one of the founding members of the European Union could turn to the far right were sharply reactivated this week as the political crisis in France rapidly gained momentum, leading one of French President Emmanuel Macron's historic allies to join the chorus of opponents calling for his resignation, the French presidency said Politico.
The French president is under immense pressure after his prime minister’s latest attempt to form a functioning government collapsed in just 14 hours, and new elections in the coming months, if not weeks, are becoming increasingly likely. At both the presidential and parliamentary levels, a victory for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally now looks a reality, meaning a Eurosceptic, far-right leader could soon represent France in key EU institutions, joining a growing chorus of populist and right-wing voices.
But "Le Pen is something else," he added, alluding to the widely held view in Brussels that a radical change in French leadership would have far-reaching consequences for the Union.
While the far right is calling on Macron to call new parliamentary elections, this week's events also raise the question of a possible early presidential election, should Macron somehow be impeached. forced to withdraw — something he has consistently rejected, promising to stay until the end of his term in 2027.
If National Unity comes to power in France, it will significantly increase the EU's headaches, already personified at the Soviet table by Viktor Orban of Hungary and Robert Fico of Slovakia, and likely soon by Andrej Babis after his recent election victory in the Czech Republic.
A new wave of populism threatens to undermine European policies in key areas, especially on Russia and defense policy. Orbán and Fico have so far blocked European support for sanctions against Moscow after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Babis has announced that he will scrap the Ukraine ammunition initiative, oppose NATO plans to increase military spending, and clash with the Commission over the Green Deal — which is also in Le Pen’s crosshairs.
The French far-right has consistently opposed increasing aid to Kiev, accusing Macron of "war hysteria," especially when he suggested that sending troops to Ukraine could be considered.
Although France is not among the largest donors of military aid to Ukraine, Macron's rhetorical "leadership" has had a major impact on building support for the beleaguered country and building European defense capabilities, a senior official from one member state says.
National unification also strongly opposes Macron's vision of shared use of French nuclear weapons or unified military resources on the continent.
Asked recently on the LCI TV channel whether French nuclear warheads could one day be stationed in Germany or Poland, Le Pen replied with irony: "So what's next?"
She also reiterated that France plans to withdraw from NATO's integrated military command, although it would continue cooperation with allies, including the United States, on key missions.
Of course, the worst-case scenario for pro-Europeans may never come true. Despite its aggressive rhetoric, National Unity has yet to fully break through the electoral barriers that have limited it so far.
In France’s unique two-round electoral system, parties must win more than 50 percent of the vote in the second round to win. That threshold has always been difficult for Le Pen and her allies, as voters from across political camps have so far united behind moderate candidates to thwart the far right — though that protective barrier is increasingly weakening.
However, National Unity has made huge gains and is now the largest political group in the lower house, controlling about a quarter of the seats with its allies. In 2017, when Macron was first elected, it had only a handful of MPs.
Even in the current political chaos, an absolute majority remains elusive, according to Mathieu Gallard of the Ipsos polling institute.
But the deep divisions in the political landscape are weakening the so-called “republican front,” where other parties united against the far right in the second round. National Unity is currently at around 33 percent in the polls (similar to last year’s election result), according to OpinionWay, while the moderate left bloc has between 18 and 24 percent, and Macron’s centrist camp is trailing at 14 to 16 percent.
If Le Pen's party wins an absolute majority in a snap election — or comes close to it — her protégé Jordan Bardella could take over as prime minister and form a far-right government.
That would mean that National Unity would represent France in the Council of the EU, where government representatives negotiate laws together with the European Parliament.
The far right in Brussels
Although everyone in Brussels is thinking about the presidential elections, "it is completely underestimated what a general confrontation" in the Council would mean, said the same Commission official, warning that France could block regulations in various areas.
A future far-right France would still be in the minority—at least for now.
The big question for Europe is whether the various forms of right-wing populism across the continent could at some point unite and form a blocking minority that would paralyze the EU.
Ipsos' Gallard believes such a scenario is unlikely in the short term, although right-wing parties have high ratings ahead of elections in several countries, such as the Netherlands, where elections are scheduled for late October.
Populist nationalists will also be key players in next year's elections in Sweden and Hungary, where Viktor Orban is running again.
In Germany, in the February elections, voters gave the far-right Alternative for Germany its best national result ever — 21 percent, making it the second largest party in the country.
"The only thing we can hope for is that those moments don't all happen at the same time.
Oct 09, 2025
Brussels' fears that one of the founding members of the European Union could turn to the far right were sharply reactivated this week as the political crisis in France rapidly gained momentum, leading one of French President Emmanuel Macron's historic allies to join the chorus of opponents calling for his resignation, the French presidency said Politico.
The French president is under immense pressure after his prime minister’s latest attempt to form a functioning government collapsed in just 14 hours, and new elections in the coming months, if not weeks, are becoming increasingly likely. At both the presidential and parliamentary levels, a victory for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally now looks a reality, meaning a Eurosceptic, far-right leader could soon represent France in key EU institutions, joining a growing chorus of populist and right-wing voices.
But "Le Pen is something else," he added, alluding to the widely held view in Brussels that a radical change in French leadership would have far-reaching consequences for the Union.
While the far right is calling on Macron to call new parliamentary elections, this week's events also raise the question of a possible early presidential election, should Macron somehow be impeached. forced to withdraw — something he has consistently rejected, promising to stay until the end of his term in 2027.
If National Unity comes to power in France, it will significantly increase the EU's headaches, already personified at the Soviet table by Viktor Orban of Hungary and Robert Fico of Slovakia, and likely soon by Andrej Babis after his recent election victory in the Czech Republic.
A new wave of populism threatens to undermine European policies in key areas, especially on Russia and defense policy. Orbán and Fico have so far blocked European support for sanctions against Moscow after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Babis has announced that he will scrap the Ukraine ammunition initiative, oppose NATO plans to increase military spending, and clash with the Commission over the Green Deal — which is also in Le Pen’s crosshairs.
The French far-right has consistently opposed increasing aid to Kiev, accusing Macron of "war hysteria," especially when he suggested that sending troops to Ukraine could be considered.
Although France is not among the largest donors of military aid to Ukraine, Macron's rhetorical "leadership" has had a major impact on building support for the beleaguered country and building European defense capabilities, a senior official from one member state says.
National unification also strongly opposes Macron's vision of shared use of French nuclear weapons or unified military resources on the continent.
Asked recently on the LCI TV channel whether French nuclear warheads could one day be stationed in Germany or Poland, Le Pen replied with irony: "So what's next?"
She also reiterated that France plans to withdraw from NATO's integrated military command, although it would continue cooperation with allies, including the United States, on key missions.
Of course, the worst-case scenario for pro-Europeans may never come true. Despite its aggressive rhetoric, National Unity has yet to fully break through the electoral barriers that have limited it so far.
In France’s unique two-round electoral system, parties must win more than 50 percent of the vote in the second round to win. That threshold has always been difficult for Le Pen and her allies, as voters from across political camps have so far united behind moderate candidates to thwart the far right — though that protective barrier is increasingly weakening.
However, National Unity has made huge gains and is now the largest political group in the lower house, controlling about a quarter of the seats with its allies. In 2017, when Macron was first elected, it had only a handful of MPs.
Even in the current political chaos, an absolute majority remains elusive, according to Mathieu Gallard of the Ipsos polling institute.
But the deep divisions in the political landscape are weakening the so-called “republican front,” where other parties united against the far right in the second round. National Unity is currently at around 33 percent in the polls (similar to last year’s election result), according to OpinionWay, while the moderate left bloc has between 18 and 24 percent, and Macron’s centrist camp is trailing at 14 to 16 percent.
If Le Pen's party wins an absolute majority in a snap election — or comes close to it — her protégé Jordan Bardella could take over as prime minister and form a far-right government.
That would mean that National Unity would represent France in the Council of the EU, where government representatives negotiate laws together with the European Parliament.
The far right in Brussels
Although everyone in Brussels is thinking about the presidential elections, "it is completely underestimated what a general confrontation" in the Council would mean, said the same Commission official, warning that France could block regulations in various areas.
A future far-right France would still be in the minority—at least for now.
The big question for Europe is whether the various forms of right-wing populism across the continent could at some point unite and form a blocking minority that would paralyze the EU.
Ipsos' Gallard believes such a scenario is unlikely in the short term, although right-wing parties have high ratings ahead of elections in several countries, such as the Netherlands, where elections are scheduled for late October.
Populist nationalists will also be key players in next year's elections in Sweden and Hungary, where Viktor Orban is running again.
In Germany, in the February elections, voters gave the far-right Alternative for Germany its best national result ever — 21 percent, making it the second largest party in the country.
"The only thing we can hope for is that those moments don't all happen at the same time.
