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Stock market "experts"

jeff2

Well-known member
Sep 11, 2004
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You have to take their comments with a grain of salt. Remember that throwing darts at a list of companies is often better.
Also, if possible to find the track record, look at that.
For example, an author on Seeking Alpha that is placed at 250 out of 5000 analysts, I would take more seriously.
Even then, you have to be careful. Anyone remember Jason Donville's health care picks such as Concordia and Valeant?
 
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Phil C. McNasty

Go Jays Go
Dec 27, 2010
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Some guy did a compilation of how many stocks Jim Cramer was right about, and it amounted to just over 50/50.

So you could have gotten the same result from just flipping a coin
 
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Ceiling Cat

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Feb 25, 2009
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At a very young age I was exposed to the financial world by my father as well as several other relatives in the financial world. I benefited from the advice and tutelage from several people. There is a term that financial advisors use, clients are sophisticated or non sophisticated investors. The non sophisticated investor knows very little about the financial world and the sophisticated investor has varying degrees knowledge about investing. Your success will depend on how sophisticated / knowledgeable you are about investing, otherwise you may have to depend on a financial advisor to guide you.

Are network TV experts in finance qualified to give financial advice and do they give good advice. I think they are qualified and know what they are talking about. They can not be all things to all people as there are many types of investors. Are you high risk or low risk. Are you a short or long term investor? Do you know when to be in the market and when to be out? If you are able to interpret market information you can make a lot of money investing in stocks. The information presented on TV is so general that you can not benefit from it. Instead you should focus on how you can use the information so you can spot rising and falling stocks.

FYI - The worse are the experts on Youtube. There is no such thing as an investment method that can tell you the future of a stock. There are too many variables. The methods presented on Youtube can only tell you the past and present of a stock. You may use this information to help you make your choices. The Youtuber is very happy to share his investment methods with you so he can make an income from the views he gets so he can add to his investment fund.
 
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John_Jacob

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Nov 23, 2022
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SPIVA Report
Our renowned SPIVA research measures actively managed funds against their index benchmarks worldwide.


For Canada
"In 2021, 67% of Canadian Equity funds underperformed their benchmark. Consistent with previous evidence over 10-year time frames, a majority of active managers in every fund category lagged their benchmarks, providing a compelling case for passive investing"
 

jeff2

Well-known member
Sep 11, 2004
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SPIVA Report
Our renowned SPIVA research measures actively managed funds against their index benchmarks worldwide.


For Canada
"In 2021, 67% of Canadian Equity funds underperformed their benchmark. Consistent with previous evidence over 10-year time frames, a majority of active managers in every fund category lagged their benchmarks, providing a compelling case for passive investing"
Passive is usually the way to go. An active manager will always say we are moving into a "stock picker's market". Ha ha.
They are more likely to add alpha in the small/mid cap space.
This one has been adding alpha and the MER is only .70.
Generally agree with their idea of avoiding resource producers although not sure about that at this particular juncture.
 
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Smallguy

Member
Dec 14, 2010
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These "experts" you see on BNN/CNBC are just salespeople talking up their book or "rent-a-quote" types selling you some kind of investment narrative.
They all talk about Bmo etfs, not good things about Harvest or Hamilton etf or evole etfs.

I guess there on the BMO payroll
 

Fun For All

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Feb 9, 2014
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My financial adviser is good...whatever he predicts, either up or down, he's usually right.
 

Charlie_

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May 6, 2022
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It's also hilarious when, after a crash, bear market or correction, they are telling the retail investors not to sell, but to stay the course, especially if you are a long-term investor. But the market continues to sink! So, who is doing the selling?? Why, of course, it's the fund managers and experts, selling and trading frantically, with your capital. They don't want you to sell your mutual funds and ETFs, and reduce the amount of cash they have to play with.
 

John_Jacob

Well-known member
Nov 23, 2022
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Passive is usually the way to go. An active manager will always say we are moving into a "stock picker's market". Ha ha.
They are more likely to add alpha in the small/mid cap space.
This one has been adding alpha and the MER is only .70.
Generally agree with their idea of avoiding resource producers although not sure about that at this particular juncture.
Agreed. However, I've gone with the individual stock route. Mostly blue chip. Some accounts I've done much better than the TSX and some just a % under. Quality stocks & long term hold I think has a higher probability of success.
 
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Mencken

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
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The losers are the people that label someone an "expert". I watch BNN all the time, there are the commentators and the guests they bring in, and they are all different people commenting on different things and sometimes why they like certain stocks over others. But take it for what it is, it is their perspective from their role or job. Viewers can learn from all of these different points of view, but you certainly can't base your investment decisions on what any one person says.

Personally I apply filters to what I hear. If they talk from a "technical" point of view I mostly ignore it. Technical analysis is a bit like seeing faces on the pictures of the moon. And "deep" analysis of fundamentals is rare, and people with that level of knowledge tend to be limited to areas where they have that deep knowledge, which is great if the timing is right. But it is limited in usefulness for an investor trying to build a successful portfolio.

As far as exchange traded funds are concerned, a passive fund is passive, their book of investments is predetermined by the rules which they operate under. If the ETF is on the TSX for example, they duplicate the TSX. The only significant differences are the MER you may pay, and a few other slight differences in how they do it. But if they don't track the index they claim to track something is wrong. Or, basically if they do that then they are all the same, whether they are set up by BMO or Horizons, or whoever.
 

Ceiling Cat

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2009
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What is an expert but a person that has built up a degree of proficiency with experience. The other ingredient for success is probability. Minimize the speculations in your picks and choose only the stocks that have a good track record.
 
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craig_hoxton

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Jun 30, 2018
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Toronto
I watch BNN all the time...
Be wary of guests like "John Smith" of "J. Smith Capital". BNN booker's are kids straight out of J-school who don't know the difference between a small one-man shop and someone from a bigger firm (or even the difference between someone from a Big Bank's wealth management arm and someone from the bank's own trading desk). Both types of guest will disclose their holdings and obviously talk their books up.
 

jeff2

Well-known member
Sep 11, 2004
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Be wary of guests like "John Smith" of "J. Smith Capital". BNN booker's are kids straight out of J-school who don't know the difference between a small one-man shop and someone from a bigger firm (or even the difference between someone from a Big Bank's wealth management arm and someone from the bank's own trading desk). Both types of guest will disclose their holdings and obviously talk their books up.
Some of them will talk like Buffett or Charlie Munger without quoting them. Others will quote them and then recommend a bunch of stocks such as resource producers that they would probably never buy.
 

Goodoer

Well-known member
Feb 20, 2004
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GTA & Thereabouts...
My choices:
1. Indexed ETFs (or low MER self-directed Indexed Mutual Funds) if I really don't know or have the time to research,
2. Sector ETFs or MFs if I'm feeling spicy,
3. Stock purchases are of only reputable companies which pay dividends,
4. Fun money is used to buy "Penny Stocks" of things I'm interested in.

You have to be super-rich or connected to get access to an actual "expert". That expert is just connected.

I hope I win.
 
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