Should NATO Enforce a No-Fly Zone Over Ukraine?

[jonboy1]

This will prevent the Russians from dropping bombs and firing missiles, which is destroying buildings and infrastructure, as well as killing people, and put NATO in direct conflict with Russia, which may escalate into a world war, with the possible use of nuclear weapons.

The west is willing to do everything possible to help the Ukrainians - except spill our own blood. Do we get involved, or just keep watching, and provide aid, from a safe distance?

 

[TimberOne]

NATO is - and has been from the beginning - a strictly defensive alliance. An attack on one is an attack on all. It's why many former Soviet republics and satellites (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Slovakia) joined NATO in the 1990's - to be defended against possible Russian attacks. Over the years Ukraine was back and forth on the question of whether to join NATO, and never has joined NATO, although some steps in that direction had been taken. In short, it has never been NATO's mission or purpose to defend non-aligned countries, which Ukraine officially is.

Oh really??

List of NATO operations - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[NotADcotor]

And let's be clear - a no-fly zone over Ukraine would not only bring NATO into direct conflict with Russia, it would likely require NATO bombing missions in Russia itself, since many Russian missiles are being fired from Russia.

That isn't what a no fly zone means.
Also we wouldn't have to sign up to enforce a no fly zone. The professionals who signed up to do the job would do it. Planes are expensive and pilot training takes a long time, it would be over one way or another long before anyone who signed up today would be read.

Also my personal level of cowardness [which is immense] does not change what is sound international policy. Using your conflict avoidance arguments would have passed on Poland and Russia under literally Hitler. It's like nobody has learned about the events of 38 and 39.

That being said, the time to move in was before the Russians attacked, it would deter them knowing they their attacks would have to kill a few hundred NATO troops, much like American troops serve not so much as a defense force in Korea but more to supply the body bags to commit the US to action and Lil Kim of Best Korea knows this.

 

[richaceg]

US dont want direct conflict with Russia. NATO can't enforce without US nod....

 

[NotADcotor]

I'm sorry, but yes - that's exactly what a no-fly zone means. To declare a no fly zone requires enforcing the no fly zone, which would inevitably bring NATO planes into combat with Russian planes. And, yes, a no-fly zone would also have to be committed to taking out Russian missiles. Otherwise the no-fly zone is pointless. Inevitably, since fighter planes likely couldn't do that job well enough, it would mean (if we're serious about it) taking out the missile launch sites, many of which are in Russia.

Bombing missions go way beyond what a no fly zone means. A no fly zone just just that, don't fly. It says nothing about taking out missiles before they are fired. Never mind I'd worry much more about old fashioned but cheaper and more plentiful tube arty.

 

[jonboy1]

Are you planning to sign up and fight? Otherwise you're just another one who wants to spill other people's blood while you hope you get off easy.

Of course not. That's a stupid question. But I would support our government and armed forces going to war.

 

[Boss Nass]

NATO only does that when there's no chance of starting WWIII. Not a good idea, and probably exactly what Putin wants. It would give him an excuse to start escalating.

 

[toguy5252]

That isn't what a no fly zone means.
Also we wouldn't have to sign up to enforce a no fly zone. The professionals who signed up to do the job would do it. Planes are expensive and pilot training takes a long time, it would be over one way or another long before anyone who signed up today would be read.

Also my personal level of cowardness [which is immense] does not change what is sound international policy. Using your conflict avoidance arguments would have passed on Poland and Russia under literally Hitler. It's like nobody has learned about the events of 38 and 39.

That being said, the time to move in was before the Russians attacked, it would deter them knowing they their attacks would have to kill a few hundred NATO troops, much like American troops serve not so much as a defense force in Korea but more to supply the body bags to commit the US to action and Lil Kim of Best Korea knows this.

Not sure what you think it does mean. It does mean that those enforcing the no-fly zone would have to be prepared to shoot down Russian planes which violate it. That leads directly to WW3. Regrettably I assume that ultimately Russia will prevail. The contiguous border of Ukraine for the most part are NATO members. i do not believe that Putin is dumb enough to challenge NATO and that is why NATO must remain strong. That being said Moldova could be next.

 

[ottawa_cuck]

Do we get involved, or just keep watching, and provide aid, from a safe distance?

option 2

 

[escortsxxx]

I'm sorry, but yes - that's exactly what a no-fly zone means. To declare a no fly zone requires enforcing the no fly zone, which would inevitably bring NATO planes into combat with Russian planes. And, yes, a no-fly zone would also have to be committed to taking out Russian missiles. Otherwise the no-fly zone is pointless. Inevitably, since fighter planes likely couldn't do that job well enough, it would mean (if we're serious about it) taking out the missile launch sites, many of which are in Russia.

Nor am I suggesting anyone "signing up" today would have to enforce it. Of course it would be the trained professional pilots who would enforce a no-fly zone - with the above outcomes. And the rest of us would have to deal with the potentially very unpleasant outcomes!

Now, the British Defence Secretary recently suggested a best of both worlds kind of scenario - giving Ukraine more access to anti-aircraft missiles, which he said would be almost the same as a no-fly zone without actually being a no-fly zone or requiring NATO fighters/bombers.

A no fly zone does not have to full commitment. Even a no fly zone with no resources committed to it is a huge statement. The first months of WWII were full of leaf drops and symbolic gestures. They work sometimes as in the fall of USSR and the tanks in Red Square.

However, even symbolic it can change the Defon level. Russia is now at somewhere between defcon 1 and defcon 2. There not at 1 since war has not started but they have there fingers on the trigger.

Nato (we) have gone from Defcon 4 to Defcon 3 , 2 away from launch. The Russian are one step away from launch which NATO last was during the Cuban missile crisis.


Are status

2024 Current Defcon Level Today | Today's Overall Alert Status Now

Current 2024 DEFCON level warning condition status today, and other alert level information including news alerts, conflict maps and doomsday clock time.

www.defconlevel.com

 

[toguy5252]

A no fly zone does not have to full commitment. Even a no fly zone with no resources committed to it is a huge statement. The first months of WWII were full of leaf drops and symbolic gestures. They work sometimes as in the fall of USSR and the tanks in Red Square.

However, even symbolic it can change the Defon level. Russia is now at somewhere between defcon 1 and defcon 2. There not at 1 since war has not started but they have there fingers on the trigger.

Nato (we) have gone from Defcon 4 to Defcon 3 , 2 away from launch. The Russian are one step away from launch which NATO last was during the Cuban missile crisis.


Are status

2024 Current Defcon Level Today | Today's Overall Alert Status Now

Current 2024 DEFCON level warning condition status today, and other alert level information including news alerts, conflict maps and doomsday clock time.

www.defconlevel.com

How would a no-fly zone with no resources work? Would you expect Putin to stop his planes flying because of a declaration without resources?

 

[Valcazar]

How would a no-fly zone with no resources work? Would you expect Putin to stop his planes flying because of a declaration without resources?

NFZ's are magical.
It's like declaring bankruptcy.

 

[NotADcotor]

Not sure what you think it does mean. It does mean that those enforcing the no-fly zone would have to be prepared to shoot down Russian planes which violate it. That leads directly to WW3. Regrettably I assume that ultimately Russia will prevail. The contiguous border of Ukraine for the most part are NATO members. i do not believe that Putin is dumb enough to challenge NATO and that is why NATO must remain strong. That being said Moldova could be next.

That is exactly what a no fly zone is.
Will it lead to WW3, Bit of a silly thing for Poitine to kill himself over. If challenged he will back down, the only reason he is in the Ukraine is because he figured correctly that NATO wouldn't interfere in a meaningful way. The EU has 3 times the population and a much bigger average GDP per capita and Russia is having enough problem with the Ukraine. Never mind Turkey and North America... and Bob aka the entire Canadian Military. He knows he can't match things if
Ukraine. Get out.
Poitine: You and what military will make us.
Ukraine. NATO
Poitine: That's a big military.

People keep insisting he is crazy, He was right about NATO not going in so far. He was wrong about Ukraine resistance and Russian military capacity but that just makes him wrong not crazy. Threatning nukes isn't crazy vs the west. It won't blow up in his face and it will worry a bunch of people not in the know but there has been no actual blow back from that.

 

[toguy5252]

That is exactly what a no fly zone is.
Will it lead to WW3, Bit of a silly thing for Poitine to kill himself over. If challenged he will back down, the only reason he is in the Ukraine is because he figured correctly that NATO wouldn't interfere in a meaningful way. The EU has 3 times the population and a much bigger average GDP per capita and Russia is having enough problem with the Ukraine. Never mind Turkey and North America... and Bob aka the entire Canadian Military. He knows he can't match things if
Ukraine. Get out.
Poitine: You and what military will make us.
Ukraine. NATO
Poitine: That's a big military.

People keep insisting he is crazy, He was right about NATO not going in so far. He was wrong about Ukraine resistance and Russian military capacity but that just makes him wrong not crazy. Threatning nukes isn't crazy vs the west. It won't blow up in his face and it will worry a bunch of people not in the know but there has been no actual blow back from that.

Are you prepared to bet that he will back down? People were betting that he would not invade. He may not be crazy but he may be foolish enough to engage with west if they become participants in a war between Russia and Ukraine. When you game our scenarios you have to look at the consequences of being wrong..

 

[Leimonis]

That is exactly what a no fly zone is.
Will it lead to WW3, Bit of a silly thing for Poitine to kill himself over. If challenged he will back down, the only reason he is in the Ukraine is because he figured correctly that NATO wouldn't interfere in a meaningful way. The EU has 3 times the population and a much bigger average GDP per capita and Russia is having enough problem with the Ukraine. Never mind Turkey and North America... and Bob aka the entire Canadian Military. He knows he can't match things if
Ukraine. Get out.
Poitine: You and what military will make us.
Ukraine. NATO
Poitine: That's a big military.

People keep insisting he is crazy, He was right about NATO not going in so far. He was wrong about Ukraine resistance and Russian military capacity but that just makes him wrong not crazy. Threatning nukes isn't crazy vs the west. It won't blow up in his face and it will worry a bunch of people not in the know but there has been no actual blow back from that.

Reality is: NATO will not roll that dice. Ukraine is not their strategic problem and Ukraine is lucky to be getting the support it’s getting. The West is going to be very cynical about it

 

[escortsxxx]

That is exactly what a no fly zone is.
Will it lead to WW3, Bit of a silly thing for Poitine to kill himself over. If challenged he will back down, the only reason he is in the Ukraine is because he figured correctly that NATO wouldn't interfere in a meaningful way. The EU has 3 times the population and a much bigger average GDP per capita and Russia is having enough problem with the Ukraine. Never mind Turkey and North America... and Bob aka the entire Canadian Military. He knows he can't match things if
Ukraine. Get out.
Poitine: You and what military will make us.
Ukraine. NATO
Poitine: That's a big military.

People keep insisting he is crazy, He was right about NATO not going in so far. He was wrong about Ukraine resistance and Russian military capacity but that just makes him wrong not crazy. Threatning nukes isn't crazy vs the west. It won't blow up in his face and it will worry a bunch of people not in the know but there has been no actual blow back from that.

He is being sold as crazy for PR. The purpose of this "crazy" is to allow for extreme action from the west. A no fly zone is a risk of NUKES. It takes a lot to risk that. Yet most dont have a problem with it, so the PR is working.

The PR is also to get PUTIN removed from office. We Hate Crazy Putin, we dont hate Russia in General so kill him all alli s good.

 

[Butler1000]

Putin is bluffing on Nukes. It's a part of his MO dating back decades.

I think he is trashing Ukraine as a projection of power. In the end he is going to annex the two little regions after negotiations. And guarantees of no NATO in Ukraine.

The question is will Ukraine agree. They may not, and in that case I honestly will get a bit more frightened. I'm not concerned about the leaderships. Its the hot head lieutenant on the ground starting a war.

 

[moredale7]

Should NATO Enforce a No-Fly Zone Over Ukraine?


This question is flawed and incomplete.

The real question is, if we knew 100% Russia would launch several thousand nuclear missiles at north America for establishing a no fly zone would you want NATO to establishing a no fly zone ?

That's the question, that is the underlying factor in every question.

Hundreds of millions dead , no lights ,no food, no power, no water, for years,,,,10000 years of lethal radiation poisoning the soil, the air, the water.

Are you ready for that? Are you?

NOT A SLIVER OF A FUCKING CHANCE ARE YOU READY FOR THAT.

You. Yes "YOU" are " NOT " ready for that, no-one on this forum is ready for that, despite the Hollywood bravado some of us swagger around with, were you given a glimpse of post apocalyptic nuclear human extinction you would have no questions on this forum pertaining to poking the bear.

This threads OP question is candy store dribble and a waste of time.

 

[Robert Mugabe]

Quite the chess player. Little cock sucker.

Ukraine no-fly zone would mean participation in conflict: Putin

Russian leader also says Western sanctions against his country following Ukraine invasion are akin to war declaration.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[NotADcotor]

Are you prepared to bet that he will back down? People were betting that he would not invade. He may not be crazy but he may be foolish enough to engage with west if they become participants in a war between Russia and Ukraine. When you game our scenarios you have to look at the consequences of being wrong..

A war with NATO means he loses. No matter how foolish he is, as long as he isn't crazy and there is no evidence he is, that is exactly how it would play out. It wouldn't even be close. He can't even rip through Ukraine, no way would he even dent NATO, the Russian military is a paper bear.

Hundreds of millions dead , no lights ,no food, no power, no water, for years,,,,10000 years of lethal radiation poisoning the soil, the air, the water.

Are you ready for that? Are you?

Well I'm convinced. Lets give over Ukraine and for that matter all of Europe to him if he asks. Hell if he wants, he can shove his tubesteak in my sister. I mean he has nukes and we must never ever risk ever him using it. So where is the line in the sand to say, no fuck off.
But hey appeasement has worked so well in giving us peace in our time right.

As for nuclear war... hint. We have them also, and he also knows the consequences if he pulls the trigger as do the higher ups in the strategic rocket command and other hanger ons.

Nothing is 100% but him not going full retard is a pretty sure bet. Or again we could just install Poutine in the White House and 24 Sussex and 10 Downing because if Poutine ever got wind that the adults in control were thinking along those lines, this is exactly what would happen. Fuck I'd do it also.

And even if we totally caved in, I think China and it's nukes might have something to say about this and they are much more realistic than some people on this board so you might have your whole the day after/Threads scenario anyway.