The first steps of US President Donald Trump have provoked a wave of comments, assumptions and guesses. However, according to Konstantin Khudoley, professor at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University, Trump’s policy, which undoubtedly differs from those of his predecessors, is not as unpredictable as it may seem and contains significant elements of continuity.
07.02.2025
Konstantin Khudoley
The decisiveness of Trump’s actions is quite understandable. Three presidential elections have already shown that his policy is supported by tens of millions of Americans and his return to the White House is not an accident, but a reflection of new trends in the evolution of American society. Now he has an agenda – almost everything he does coincides with his pre-election statements. He has managed to consolidate the Republican Party. The personal factor also plays an important role – Trump has only one term to go down in history as a great president, which he undoubtedly dreams of. Finally, he has significantly fewer checks and balances to worry about, both domestically (the Republicans have a majority in Congress, and most members of the Supreme Court also share Trump’s views) and internationally – the old world order that emerged after the end of the Cold War is mired in a deep crisis, and the elements of a new one are taking shape rather slowly.
Of course, Trump’s policies have important features that were previously absent in the Republican agenda, since they were not so acute. Even 20-30 years ago, it was difficult to imagine that the problem of illegal migration would become so acute in the United States, a country created by migrants and their descendants. However, in a number of cases, such as with respect to the increase in the efficiency of the state apparatus, the element of continuity is very significant. The department headed by Elon Musk has the same functions as the commission created by Ronald Reagan when he was governor of California and later the United States president. The main difference, perhaps, is that now the head of this structure is the richest man on the planet and the degree of his influence on state affairs, as well as activity in the media space, is incomparably greater.
Donald Trump certainly takes into account the position of Russia, China and some other countries, but seeks to use in full the existing uncertainty in world affairs to strengthen the position of the United States. Of course, the main idea of Trump’s slogan Make America Great Again is to turn the United States into an undisputed dominant power in the international arena. At the same time, the continuity of the approaches between Donald Trump and Ronald Reagan – “peace through strength” is undeniable, and the differences consist only in individual formulations. However, the emphasis is not on the development of international cooperation, even with Washington’s closest allies and partners, but on solving any problems exclusively in the interests of the United States, regardless of how others feel about it. It is impossible to agree with the opinion of some experts that Trump’s policy is a return to isolationism and that the United States wants to shrink into itself or at most into the Western Hemisphere. On the contrary, the US under Donald Trump will seek to lay the groundwork for a significant restructuring of international relations in order to secure American dominance. Other models and schemes do not suit him. In this context, it is obviously worth considering Elon Musk’s attempts to support the Reform UK party, Alternative for Germany and some other far-right forces.
Of course, the style of communication between Trump and his entourage and foreign politicians attracts special attention. It is very reminiscent of Jules Verne’s story “The Day of an American Journalist in 2889”. Of course, Trump’s provocative statements have different goals. When he talks about Canada joining the US as the 51st state, he most likely seeks not only economic benefits, but also the defeat of the Liberal Party in the upcoming parliamentary elections and the coming to power of politicians who reflect his views. It is unlikely that Washington really expects Alternative for Germany to win the upcoming Bundestag elections, but by showing sympathy for it, Trump is pushing the most likely winner, the CDU/CSU, to shift to the right. Nevertheless, the likelihood of him revising the Panama Canal Treaty and changing the status of Greenland is high. The issue of abandoning the treaty with Panama was discussed back in the early 80s during the Reagan administration, and the US claims to Greenland have a very long history. That is, here too, Donald Trump is largely continuing the line of his predecessors, albeit in a very tough, sometimes simply defiant form.
Trump has repeatedly stated his desire to resolve the conflict in Ukraine and improve relations with Russia. However, it seems that his policy here is also largely based on the ideas of the times of Ronald Reagan – to achieve superiority in the field of weapons and to exhaust the economy of Russia with economic sanctions. For example, his plans to create the “Iron Dome for America” are very reminiscent of Reagan’s “Star Wars” initiative. There are no signs he is preparing to ease the sanctions yet. However, a repeat of the situation of the early 80s is unlikely even in general terms. The world has changed qualitatively during this time and it is impossible to step into the same river twice.
At the same time, two points should not go unnoticed, that provide some hope for improving relations with Russia. Trump’s statements contain clear hints at his readiness to discuss with Russia not only the issue of resolving the military conflict in Ukraine, but – which seems important – a wider range of issues. In our opinion, the current confrontation is developing in several areas (military action in Ukraine, sanctions, etc.), which are interconnected, but have their own logic and dynamics. Therefore, the future settlement will most likely resemble the Westphalian system of 1648, which consisted of several treaties based on common principles, but which were signed by different states and were not formally connected with each other. This formula may be acceptable now, since it is possible to involve states that are not directly involved in the confrontation in the settlement of a number of problems.
In 2025, Russia celebrates the 80th anniversary of its defeat of Nazi Germany, and the public is very sensitive to any nuances in statements on this topic. Not everything that Trump has said about this can be agreed with. However, it would be wrong not to see that he differs from many other Western politicians. To some extent, he is a successor to Winston Churchill, who in one of his last speeches emphasised that he always spoke respectfully of Russia and the Russian people, and used the word “Soviets” to provide a negative connotation. Donald Trump also does not accept communism, but respects our country and people. This is especially evident against the backdrop of the resolution of the European Parliament of January 25, 2025, which has not just different, but simply the opposite spirit and tone.
It is difficult to predict now when a Russian-American summit will take place. Such an event requires very careful and serious preparation, including the creation of a certain public atmosphere. Much is at stake – successful negotiations can give impetus to improving the international situation, while confrontation can lead to an even deeper confrontation.
07.02.2025
Konstantin Khudoley
The decisiveness of Trump’s actions is quite understandable. Three presidential elections have already shown that his policy is supported by tens of millions of Americans and his return to the White House is not an accident, but a reflection of new trends in the evolution of American society. Now he has an agenda – almost everything he does coincides with his pre-election statements. He has managed to consolidate the Republican Party. The personal factor also plays an important role – Trump has only one term to go down in history as a great president, which he undoubtedly dreams of. Finally, he has significantly fewer checks and balances to worry about, both domestically (the Republicans have a majority in Congress, and most members of the Supreme Court also share Trump’s views) and internationally – the old world order that emerged after the end of the Cold War is mired in a deep crisis, and the elements of a new one are taking shape rather slowly.
Of course, Trump’s policies have important features that were previously absent in the Republican agenda, since they were not so acute. Even 20-30 years ago, it was difficult to imagine that the problem of illegal migration would become so acute in the United States, a country created by migrants and their descendants. However, in a number of cases, such as with respect to the increase in the efficiency of the state apparatus, the element of continuity is very significant. The department headed by Elon Musk has the same functions as the commission created by Ronald Reagan when he was governor of California and later the United States president. The main difference, perhaps, is that now the head of this structure is the richest man on the planet and the degree of his influence on state affairs, as well as activity in the media space, is incomparably greater.
Donald Trump certainly takes into account the position of Russia, China and some other countries, but seeks to use in full the existing uncertainty in world affairs to strengthen the position of the United States. Of course, the main idea of Trump’s slogan Make America Great Again is to turn the United States into an undisputed dominant power in the international arena. At the same time, the continuity of the approaches between Donald Trump and Ronald Reagan – “peace through strength” is undeniable, and the differences consist only in individual formulations. However, the emphasis is not on the development of international cooperation, even with Washington’s closest allies and partners, but on solving any problems exclusively in the interests of the United States, regardless of how others feel about it. It is impossible to agree with the opinion of some experts that Trump’s policy is a return to isolationism and that the United States wants to shrink into itself or at most into the Western Hemisphere. On the contrary, the US under Donald Trump will seek to lay the groundwork for a significant restructuring of international relations in order to secure American dominance. Other models and schemes do not suit him. In this context, it is obviously worth considering Elon Musk’s attempts to support the Reform UK party, Alternative for Germany and some other far-right forces.
Of course, the style of communication between Trump and his entourage and foreign politicians attracts special attention. It is very reminiscent of Jules Verne’s story “The Day of an American Journalist in 2889”. Of course, Trump’s provocative statements have different goals. When he talks about Canada joining the US as the 51st state, he most likely seeks not only economic benefits, but also the defeat of the Liberal Party in the upcoming parliamentary elections and the coming to power of politicians who reflect his views. It is unlikely that Washington really expects Alternative for Germany to win the upcoming Bundestag elections, but by showing sympathy for it, Trump is pushing the most likely winner, the CDU/CSU, to shift to the right. Nevertheless, the likelihood of him revising the Panama Canal Treaty and changing the status of Greenland is high. The issue of abandoning the treaty with Panama was discussed back in the early 80s during the Reagan administration, and the US claims to Greenland have a very long history. That is, here too, Donald Trump is largely continuing the line of his predecessors, albeit in a very tough, sometimes simply defiant form.
Trump has repeatedly stated his desire to resolve the conflict in Ukraine and improve relations with Russia. However, it seems that his policy here is also largely based on the ideas of the times of Ronald Reagan – to achieve superiority in the field of weapons and to exhaust the economy of Russia with economic sanctions. For example, his plans to create the “Iron Dome for America” are very reminiscent of Reagan’s “Star Wars” initiative. There are no signs he is preparing to ease the sanctions yet. However, a repeat of the situation of the early 80s is unlikely even in general terms. The world has changed qualitatively during this time and it is impossible to step into the same river twice.
At the same time, two points should not go unnoticed, that provide some hope for improving relations with Russia. Trump’s statements contain clear hints at his readiness to discuss with Russia not only the issue of resolving the military conflict in Ukraine, but – which seems important – a wider range of issues. In our opinion, the current confrontation is developing in several areas (military action in Ukraine, sanctions, etc.), which are interconnected, but have their own logic and dynamics. Therefore, the future settlement will most likely resemble the Westphalian system of 1648, which consisted of several treaties based on common principles, but which were signed by different states and were not formally connected with each other. This formula may be acceptable now, since it is possible to involve states that are not directly involved in the confrontation in the settlement of a number of problems.
In 2025, Russia celebrates the 80th anniversary of its defeat of Nazi Germany, and the public is very sensitive to any nuances in statements on this topic. Not everything that Trump has said about this can be agreed with. However, it would be wrong not to see that he differs from many other Western politicians. To some extent, he is a successor to Winston Churchill, who in one of his last speeches emphasised that he always spoke respectfully of Russia and the Russian people, and used the word “Soviets” to provide a negative connotation. Donald Trump also does not accept communism, but respects our country and people. This is especially evident against the backdrop of the resolution of the European Parliament of January 25, 2025, which has not just different, but simply the opposite spirit and tone.
It is difficult to predict now when a Russian-American summit will take place. Such an event requires very careful and serious preparation, including the creation of a certain public atmosphere. Much is at stake – successful negotiations can give impetus to improving the international situation, while confrontation can lead to an even deeper confrontation.
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