QB's and Super Bowls

[BottomsUp]

Just watching monday night football, and started thinking about all the qb's who have won the big one. Did a little research and not surprisingly found that about 30 of the 40 sb's won with a qb that was well experienced and would go down in history as an exceptional player. A few were won with a qb who were quite inexperienced but turn out to be exceptional (Brady in particular; big Ben still pending greatness), and a handful with qb who had experience but not an exceptional career (Dilfer, Williams, Rypien, Warner). So it strikes me that we can predict results based on these %'s. Naturally, you need a very good supporting cast to. Just for fun I'll take a shot at the Super Bowl likelies, based on an (A) 80% likelihood for a team with an exceptional and experienced qb; (B) 15% for a seasoned qb who is not exceptional, and (C) 5% for an up and comer.

A) Colts, Pats, Eagles, Packers(not)

B) Ravens, Seahawks, Redskins, Broncos, Chiefs, Panthers, Cowboys, Vikings

C) Steelers, Bengals, Jets, Giants, Jags, Chargers, Bills, Cards, Bears, Rams

Didn't bother with the the lower end teams: rate them a zero. lol.

Most of the qb's who have won while still young have gone on to great careers; eg. Griese, Bradshaw, Aikman, Montana, Favre.
Big Ben and Brady would likely fall into this category.

Based on experience and ability at qb, a group (A) team should win, but look for an upset from group (C). We'll see.

What do you guys think.

Back to this rather boring game.

 

[popsiclepete]

It's not boring if you have money on it

 

[maurice93]

One big problem with your analysis.

The "exceptional" tag for many comes after their super bowl victories.

 

[BottomsUp]

One big problem with your analysis.

The "exceptional" tag for many comes after their super bowl victories.

Good point, but I was thinking of guys who had been in the league for a few years and were considered exceptional, as opposed to guys like Brady who were virtually unheard of before he won. Guys like Elway, Montana, Stabler, Staubach, etc.

 

[mrpolarbear]

Just watching monday night football, and started thinking about all the qb's who have won the big one. Did a little research and not surprisingly found that about 30 of the 40 sb's won with a qb that was well experienced and would go down in history as an exceptional player. A few were won with a qb who were quite inexperienced but turn out to be exceptional (Brady in particular; big Ben still pending greatness), and a handful with qb who had experience but not an exceptional career (Dilfer, Williams, Rypien, Warner). So it strikes me that we can predict results based on these %'s. Naturally, you need a very good supporting cast to. Just for fun I'll take a shot at the Super Bowl likelies, based on an (A) 80% likelihood for a team with an exceptional and experienced qb; (B) 15% for a seasoned qb who is not exceptional, and (C) 5% for an up and comer.

A) Colts, Pats, Eagles, Packers(not)

B) Ravens, Seahawks, Redskins, Broncos, Chiefs, Panthers, Cowboys, Vikings

C) Steelers, Bengals, Jets, Giants, Jags, Chargers, Bills, Cards, Bears, Rams

Didn't bother with the the lower end teams: rate them a zero. lol.

Most of the qb's who have won while still young have gone on to great careers; eg. Griese, Bradshaw, Aikman, Montana, Favre.
Big Ben and Brady would likely fall into this category.

Based on experience and ability at qb, a group (A) team should win, but look for an upset from group (C). We'll see.

What do you guys think.

Back to this rather boring game.

I think you have DA BEARS in the wrong category. T REX will lead the Bears to the promiseland if he stays healthy.

 

[homonger]

I think you have DA BEARS in the wrong category. T REX will lead the Bears to the promiseland if he stays healthy.

I think bottomsup has Rex in the right category. He wasn't assessing the team, he was categorizing teams by the experience/accomplishments of their QB. Of course, it is a little unfair, given we can easily judge the careers of guys like Elway and Montana. Rex might turn out to be a great one, but I don't think we can say that yet. That said, I might have to hop on the Bears bandwagon. I've lived in Chicago for 13 years and have resisted so far.

But let me add my two cents to bottomsup's research...

10 winning Super Bowl QB's are Hall of Famers: Starr, Namath, Dawson, Staubach, Griese, Bradshaw, Montana, Aikman, Young, Elway. Arguably 12, as Favre and Brady are probable Hall of Famers.

8 are what I'd call solid QB's with decent careers: Stabler, Plunkett, Theisman, Simms, Williams, Rypien, Warner, Brad Johnson. I have a feeling Roethlisberger goes into this category. I suppose McMahon might also go here too.

That leaves only 3 winning SB QB's in the head-scratcher category: Morrall, Hostetler, Dilfer.

Maurice brings up a good point though, how "great" were these HOF QB's really, and how much did winning a SB (or two or three) add to their HOF credentials?

 

[mrpolarbear]

Ya you are right homonger, i re read his post and seen that. Come on and join the band wagon , its going to be a wild ride this year. In my opinion this team after 5 games is alot better than the 85 team. I have been following the Bears for all my life and i have never seen the offense this good .

 

[slowandeasy]

Mr. polarbear... that was a very good assessment of the situation. I think that you are bang on... Of course some guys were only labelled great after they won the superbowl...

The young guys are where you will face the most difficult choices. For example Rex Grossman (if he continues to improve) will be great... but right now, he is barely mediocre. I think that he has been in the league 4 years(?),
he has shown some promise, but no fireworks... however, with that defence and an improving running game, he could be the next Jim McMahon. His one downfall is that he does not seem to be the self promoter that Jim was (btw, i don't think that self promotion is a desirable quality).

And of course there is my guy Phillip Rivers... he made some awesome reads and fantastic passes yesterday.... but like grossman he needs to improve. The Chargers defence is almost as good as da bears, but there is something missing with the Chargers whereas the bears are dominating...