Potus?
- Thread starter superquad1968
- Start date
Kerry Will Win
Got this tid-bit from a depressed GOP buddy. He Claims, I haven't checked it out though, that NO Republican president has EVER BEEN re-elected if his last name has 4 letters in it! He says Dubya is doomed to lose like his dad, Ford and others.
Plus the Sox winning the World Series was a good omen for Kerry.
This made me feel great......sure hope he is right.........
Got this tid-bit from a depressed GOP buddy. He Claims, I haven't checked it out though, that NO Republican president has EVER BEEN re-elected if his last name has 4 letters in it! He says Dubya is doomed to lose like his dad, Ford and others.
Plus the Sox winning the World Series was a good omen for Kerry.
This made me feel great......sure hope he is right.........
The old west lives
Just got me thinking. Have we ever had a Pres. from Texas that hasn't been involved in a war? Johnson, Bush, and Bush Lite. Yeehaw. Am I missing someone?
Just got me thinking. Have we ever had a Pres. from Texas that hasn't been involved in a war? Johnson, Bush, and Bush Lite. Yeehaw. Am I missing someone?
Re: Re: Kerry Will Win
It also doesn't hurt when one of the leading pollsters, the Zogby poll, is calling for a Kerry victory.
bbk
????
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle....QU5O5GCRBAELCFEY?type=topNews&storyID=6658877
Can you confirm your statement. According to John Zogby it is a toss up. Maybe there is another Zogby.
It also doesn't hurt when one of the leading pollsters, the Zogby poll, is calling for a Kerry victory.
bbk
????
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle....QU5O5GCRBAELCFEY?type=topNews&storyID=6658877
Can you confirm your statement. According to John Zogby it is a toss up. Maybe there is another Zogby.
Re: Re: Re: Kerry Will Win
Can you confirm your statement. According to John Zogby it is a toss up. Maybe there is another Zogby. [/B][/QUOTE]
Zogby actually said his polling indicates Kerry will win last night. For a poll ster to say that is remarkable - and risky - but he is pretty accurate. LEts hope he is right.
Can you confirm your statement. According to John Zogby it is a toss up. Maybe there is another Zogby. [/B][/QUOTE]
Zogby actually said his polling indicates Kerry will win last night. For a poll ster to say that is remarkable - and risky - but he is pretty accurate. LEts hope he is right.
I just can't wait for this to be over. I am suffering from election burn out. The whole news cycle was consumed by this for the past year.
Let's see. Langeweile is prediciting dubya will win by 12%, and bbk predicts Kerry by 10%. Anytime either of you guys wants to place a bet, sports, whatever, please let me know. Always nice to have a little extra cash.
My prediction is that GW will just squeak by.
Bush 50%
Kerry 48%
Nader 2%
Not saying I like it.
My prediction is that GW will just squeak by.
Bush 50%
Kerry 48%
Nader 2%
Not saying I like it.
People, People, People. We need to start handicapping this on the basis of electoral votes. Popular vote is meaningless.
I'm calling for Kerry by 12 EVs.
Kerry: 275
Bush: 263
This assumes Kerry will carry Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisoconsin, and Minesota. Graphing poll results from all states shows Kerry has an edge in all five. Florida, Colorado and Hawaii go to Bush.
Now for the pointless speculation:
The weakest link here for Kerry is Wisconsin, so far as I can tell. Giving Wisconsin (10 EVs) to Bush will leave us with:
Kerry: 265
Bush: 273
However, recent polls that give Hawaii to Bush are very, very suspect. So perhaps we should give Hawaii (4 EVs) to Kerry:
Kerry: 269
Bush: 269
A push. Congress elects the President. As I've said, have fun with your election, guys. Personally I thank God for good old simple and colossally undemocratic Canadian democracy.
I'm calling for Kerry by 12 EVs.
Kerry: 275
Bush: 263
This assumes Kerry will carry Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisoconsin, and Minesota. Graphing poll results from all states shows Kerry has an edge in all five. Florida, Colorado and Hawaii go to Bush.
Now for the pointless speculation:
The weakest link here for Kerry is Wisconsin, so far as I can tell. Giving Wisconsin (10 EVs) to Bush will leave us with:
Kerry: 265
Bush: 273
However, recent polls that give Hawaii to Bush are very, very suspect. So perhaps we should give Hawaii (4 EVs) to Kerry:
Kerry: 269
Bush: 269
A push. Congress elects the President. As I've said, have fun with your election, guys. Personally I thank God for good old simple and colossally undemocratic Canadian democracy.
Playing with numbers.bbking said:I already bet it. Lange's is more of a stretch, mine isn't and let me tell you how:
In the last week the challenger usually swings 3 to 5 percent of the vote their way - that's mainly because on the fence Bush supporters and any undecided at this point will generally not the happiest campers with Bush and will break towards Kerry.
Now my whole prediction is based on a monster turnout compared to 2000. In 2000 nearly 100 million votes were counted, I have estimated between 15 to 20 million vote increase over 2000 and I'm leaning towards 20 million. Now most of these votes will come from minorities and from University students. I have estimated that 2/3rds of that new vote will go to Kerry. This coupled with the usual late break to the challenger, means according to my last calculation a 9.8% victory by Kerry - Ok it's not 10% but I bet I'm closer than lange.
bbk
yeah, yeah I know. I have way to much time on my hands
OK. here's something else to consider. No president who chose to run for re-election when the US was still involved in a major war has lost.
Madison/ War of 1812 (Didn't actually end until 1815)
Lincoln/ Civil War
FDR/ WW II
Nixon/ Vietnam
Notice I mean major wars. Obviously, there have been US troops fighting somewhere during almost every election.
If you liked, you could also add Mckinley in the aftermath of the Spanish-American War and during the Philippine-American War. Wilson during WWI. Although the US was not directly involved in 1916, I think many Americans realized they soon would be. Lyndon Johnson quit, so we'll never know. George Sr. first Gulf War was over well before the election.
The point is that the US is very reluctant to change horses when a large number of troops are actively involved in conflict.
bbk,
I hope you're right, and agree that voter turnout is crucial for Kerry. Still, I don't think I would classify the US being at war during a presidential election as a "little indicator".
Btw, "playing with numbers" was as much a comment on my post, and yours, and anyone else trying to predict the election. I'm beginning to understand why you and langeweile get into it so often.
I hope you're right, and agree that voter turnout is crucial for Kerry. Still, I don't think I would classify the US being at war during a presidential election as a "little indicator".
Btw, "playing with numbers" was as much a comment on my post, and yours, and anyone else trying to predict the election. I'm beginning to understand why you and langeweile get into it so often.
