Jays 2026 Thread

[Toronto Passions]

A search of the Sports Discussion thread will reveal that you, Philip, were perhaps the biggest TERB supporter of Vlad's contract extension.

I know I know that was my bad. I was listening to Buck Martinez, who I consider to be so knowledgeable and I respect him so much. He said two years ago "if the Jays extend Vladimir, everything else will fall into place" and I took those words to heart. I don't think anyone expected this absolute disaster. Never mind performance wise… This is a PR disaster for the Jays. How are they ever going to work themselves out of this with those Guerrero comments?

If they play Guerrero tonight or this weekend… It will be so telling to see the fan reaction. At this point, I'm hoping Mets ownership is still interested in Guerrero and I'm kind of wishing for a Bichette/Guerrero trade lol.

Philip

 

[wawa]

I sincerely hope the Blue Jays seriously consider bringing back Mad Max if he does not retire. When he is healthy he can still bring it as demonstrated yesterday. His clubhouse presence also is valuable in my opinion.

 

[Insidious Von]

I sincerely hope the Blue Jays seriously consider bringing back Mad Max if he does not retire. When he is healthy he can still bring it as demonstrated yesterday. His clubhouse presence also is valuable in my opinion.

If Scherzer can deke Father Time of course bring him back, , he's a shot of cafe in the dugout. Btw who was the power hitter they called up from the minors? Is his last name Grace? Santander wont play for us next year either.

 

[onomatopoeia]

I sincerely hope the Blue Jays seriously consider bringing back Mad Max if he does not retire. When he is healthy he can still bring it as demonstrated yesterday. His clubhouse presence also is valuable in my opinion.

Max's children enjoyed spending summers in Toronto, and that was an important factor in his decision to resign with the Blue Jays in 2026.

The Scherzer's home has been in Florida since 2020. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of Max signing a minor league deal with the Blue Jays, staying in or near Dunedin until the end of the school year, not necessarily playing, but staying in game shape, then coming north in June to bolster the pitching staff for the last two thirds of the season. It's not as if he 'needs' to face minor league opposition before playing in the Majors again.

I'm not sure he has a full season of gas left in his tank, but he'd probably want to play the end of a season rather than the beginning. A similar arrangement was made for Roger Clemens near the end of his career. Roger only pitched in home games for Houston, and didn't travel with the team on the road.

Max would very much like to finish ahead of Justin Verlander on the all time strikeouts list, and he'd need four more to pass him. As you mentioned, he doesn't need to be on the field to have a positive impact on the team. Money is unlikely to be a factor in his decision to return or not. He also might be amenable to a big cut in guaranteed salary in exchange for a contract with performance incentives.

 

[Mandala]

The jays failed for 2 reasons

number one is Vlad. Power hitters are put at first base as that is the easier position to play. Getting a replacement better than he was this year should not be hard, not that I suggest we do as he may rebound

Injuries. Every team gets them but we got more than our share

Gong forward we need at least one starter to replace Guasman and another reliever

Whether we can trust Santander, Okamoto, Kirk, Barger and Vlad to hit enough homers I do not know but they could be a fearsome 5 but I think we need to add another one for Springer at DH to deepen the lineup. 6 threats to hit 25+ homers seems like a deep lineup




We hit 150 homers which is dead last

if 6 players hit homers with average of 30 that is 180 plus 30 from rest of team is 210 which is a power lineup as league average is below 200 homers

but it depends if there are runners on base so ideally 3 strong power hitters then the rest of team gets on base for them is the old paradigm of a power team but now tams want 5 power hitters with some who can still have higher batting percentage

We seem to be there if everything goes perfect

 

[Primetime21]

We can't count on anything from Santerder or Barger next year. If we get something from them it's a bonus, but not guaranteed. They should get Brandon Lowe and one of Seiya Suzuki or Teruaki Sato along with more at bats for Sean Keyes and or Charles McAdoo. If they can get something for Clement trade him this winter. They'll need at least 1 more starter and another serviceable reliever.

 

[Toronto Passions]

We can't count on anything from Santerder or Barger next year. If we get something from them it's a bonus, but not guaranteed. They should get Brandon Lowe and one of Seiya Suzuki or Teruaki Sato along with more at bats for Sean Keyes and or Charles McAdoo. If they can get something for Clement trade him this winter. They'll need at least 1 more starter and another serviceable reliever.

Call me crazy, but if my name was Ross Atkins, I would trade Clement for Bichette. With Springer and Bieber coming off the books why the hell not? Package Clement with some of that utility fluff that we currently have.

Call me crazy again, but if my name was Ross Atkins, I would also hire Josh Donaldson as a hitting coach… Anyone that has ever watched his podcast with Russell Martin, or listened to Donaldson talk about the mechanics of hitting… They would understand this.

Philip

 

[billsmafia]

Call me crazy, but if my name was Ross Atkins, I would trade Clement for Bichette. With Springer and Bieber coming off the books why the hell not? Package Clement with some of that utility fluff that we currently have.

Call me crazy again, but if my name was Ross Atkins, I would also hire Josh Donaldson as a hitting coach… Anyone that has ever watched his podcast with Russell Martin, or listened to Donaldson talk about the mechanics of hitting… They would understand this.

Philip

You're crazy x2!!!


Kidding aside... JD would be a great addition to the staff, in any capacity.

 

[onomatopoeia]

Pitching box score for Chicago White Sox, vs Cleveland Guardians, October 3 ALDS.



White Sox starter/ opener Hagen Smith was the second pitcher selected/ fifth overall selection in the 2024 Draft. He was named National Pitcher of the Year as a Junior at Arkansas in 2024. He had Tommy John surgery before his Junior year of high school, and pitched 7 no-hitters in his Senior year of high school.

Hagen Smith minor league stats.

The White Sox promoted him to the Majors on August 8, and they've used him in middle relief, (3-3 Won-Loss record; 1.29 ERA, 41 K's, 11 hits allowed, 0.96 WHIP and .117 batting average in 28 Major League innings - 18 games and one start).

Hagen Smith Major League stats.

Smith might be the first starting pitcher in Major League Baseball history to have been removed from a postseason game with an intact no-hitter, albeit with only 2 2/3 innings pitched. If it has happened before, it's been recently, in one of the preliminary rounds most of us don't pay much attention to, if the Blue Jays aren't in it.

Using an opener in a postseason game wouldn't be common, and would most likely happen if a team won the Wild Card round in three games before facing a team which had a first round bye. Most teams wouldn't use this strategy because they'd want to keep their bullpen fresh for the rest of the round.

I'm probably not the only one who hadn't heard of this guy before yesterday. This is the kind of talent a team can get in the draft, if they tank a few seasons instead of trying to win the 6 seed, and if they can keep their payroll under the cap.

 

[tml]

On the J.D. Bunkis show(Sportsnet Fan590) earlier today, Bunkis and Ben Nicholson Smith were speculating about the likelihood of Gausman returning to the Jays. The big news reveal was that the Gausman family has not sold their Toronto house yet. Over the years I've seen speculation fueled by the opposite, notably if a player sold his house in the city in the which he is playing at the time.

 

[onomatopoeia]

Gausman knew that trading him at the deadline during his last year under contract was a good move for him and for the team. He was given an opportunity to possibly win a World Series ring, if things had gone differently for the Cubs. He's well liked by the Blue Jays' front office, team mates and the fan base. He'll likely take all of that into account when choosing his next employer. Having 'a good fit' is often more important than a few extra bucks for a player his age.

 

[tml]

Gausman knew that trading him at the deadline during his last year under contract was a good move for him and for the team. He was given an opportunity to possibly win a World Series ring, if things had gone differently for the Cubs. He's well liked by the Blue Jays' front office, team mates and the fan base. He'll likely take all of that into account when choosing his next employer. Having 'a good fit' is often more important than a few extra bucks for a player his age.

They also speculated that the Jays may stockpile 7 or 8 starters in case they encounter the same problems they had this past year.

 

[onomatopoeia]

They also speculated that the Jays may stockpile 7 or 8 starters in case they encounter the same problems they had this past year.

Major League Baseball Luxury Tax 2022 - present

Toronto Blue Jays 2027 Salaries

2027 Luxury Tax Limit, (estimated): $250 Million. The Blue Jays were over the Cap in 2025 and 2026, so 'three time consecutive offender' penalties would be in effect for 2027 and possibly additional years thereafter.

Big salary obligations for 2027:

Guerrero Jr: $40.2 Million
Cease: $33.3 Million
Berrios: $24 Million
Gimenez: $23.6 Million
Santander: $19.2 Million
Okamoto: $17.2 Million
Rogers: $13.7 Million
Kirk: $12.3 Million
Ponce: $12 Million

Total for these 12 players: $171.9 Million
Total to spend and remain under the Cap: $78 Million for 28 players
Minimum Salary in 2027: $1 Million.

Some of the $78 Million will go to Clement, Soriano and Varland, all eligible for level 2 arbitration. Some of the talent like Yesavage may have to accept a figure at or near the minimum, but they won't be happy with that, and they'll show their disapproval when they're at level 3 arbitration, or when they have the service time for free agency.

I can't see how a team can stockpile starting pitchers with these kinds of fiscal restraints. Rogers can afford the monetary penalties, but the Blue Jays can't necessarily afford the amateur draft penalties, which also include a reduction to the total budget for signing draft picks. The Jays will already drop 10 spots in the selection order in next July's draft, unless they move up to a top six spot in the draft lottery.

Realistically, Berrios and Santander may not be contributors in 2027, but no team would be willing to take their contract, unless the Jays paid most of it. Gimenez would likely be unmovable as well, given the ratio of his cost to value. There several players currently on the 40 man roster, not yet eligible for arbitration, who may be non tendered because they aren't worth the minimum salary. I also don't see any positions where the Jays have a talent surplus, so trading talent to upgrade at one position creates a deficit at another.

The are no prospects in their farm system who are likely to be impactful in 2027.

Very ordinary and undependable starting pitcher free agents usually cost in the $15 - $20 Million range per season. The free agent pool isn't deep for 2027, and any decent starter will have multiple suitors. Toronto will not be the first choice for many of them.

I see only clouds on the horizon for a long time. Meanwhile, teams like the White Sox and the Athletics are poised to become serious contenders, after benefiting from high draft choices following multiple 100 loss seasons. The Orioles could also join that group, if their young talent plays to their potential. Having to play 32% of their schedule against American League East opponents won't help much, either. The Yankees and Red Sox will always spend to contend, and the Rays play within Cap economics better than any team in the Majors.

 

[Radar1956]

I heard on one of the sports shows that Vlady had laser eye surgery over the past few days. Could that be the reason he had a terrible year or just a convenient excuse.

 

[Mandala]

I heard on one of the sports shows that Vlady had laser eye surgery over the past few days. Could that be the reason he had a terrible year or just a convenient excuse.

 

[onomatopoeia]

This link shows the penalties which would be imposed on the Blue Jays if they sign free agent who declined a qualifying offer from the team he played for in 2026.

The qualifying offer for the 2027 season is a 1 year contract at $23.15 Million, the average salary of the 125 highest paid players. Any player who accepts the qualifying offer qualifies for free agency after the 2027 season, unless he signs an extension.

It's important to note that a player can receive a qualifying offer only once in his career, and any player who played for more than one team during his pre-free agency season will not receive a qualifying offer.

Each Team’s Penalty For Signing A Qualifying Offer-Rejecting Free Agent

If a team signs a qualified free agent, what is the added cost beyond just the salary? MLB Trade Rumors has the breakdown.

www.mlbtraderumors.com

Scroll to near the bottom of the article to see how this would affect the Blue Jays; they are among the Competitive Balance Tax Payors.

I think Shane Bieber is eligible to receive a qualifying offer, but I don't think he'll get one without a clean bill of health. In the scenario where Bieber receives and rejects a QO from the Jays, they would receive some draft pick compensation, but not as much as they would if they had not exceeded the Luxury Tax cap in each of the past two seasons.

The penalties will be more severe if they exceed the cap for a third consecutive season. They were over the cap in 2023, but managed to sneak under in 2024 through trades in July, 2024:

Blue Jays transactions, July 2024


Related: Each Team’s Draft Compensation For Losing A Qualifying Offer-Rejecting Free Agent

I can't see this affecting any Blue Jay except Bieber. In theory, Jose Berrios could decline his player option, the Jays could make a qualifying offer which he rejects, and another team could sign him. I don't see any of those three things happening. All of the other Blue Jays' free agents have either received a qualifying offer in the past, or they would never get one.