Is there a new tech bubble on the horizon?

[Smallcock]

Remember the dot com bust 15 years ago. Lots of internet companies with crazy valuations went bankrupt.

Are we going to see something similar with new unprofitable tech companies including big names like Airbnb, Uber, Twitter, SnapChat, and so on? Some companies like Youtube, while still unprofitable to date are owned by bigger profitable companies, so they'll be fine. But for how long will private investors prop up the more recent startups? Some tech companies have definite potential - airbnb, and uber to name a few. They're wonderful for customers, but they face serious hurdles (scaling; local laws in hundreds of districts; lawsuits).

Airbnb believes they will turn a profit 5 years from now at which time they believe they will be generating $10 billion in revenue.

Some of these companies really do need time to scale. It took Amazon 9 years before it became profitable.

Facebook is very profitable. Twitter isn't but we can do without Twitter anyway.

Do you think investors will eventually take a loss on most of these companies?

 

[onthebottom]

There are a few things at play here.

Fast growing companies, even established companies (Salesforce, Amazon) rarely make money consistently. Amazon is just now eeking out a profit but it's unreliable (and the multiple is crazy). Investors have immense patience for business models they understand (cloud computing, online retail) when it delivers consistent growth.

The sharing economy has legs, hard to pick winners beyond Uber/Airbnb - lyft? Fundamental economy shift, will draw portfolio investors that will buy several of these firms (or invest before public) and make their money off the one that hits.

Social (Facebook, Twiter) is a well understood model now - traffic X ad = revenue. Facebook (like Google) has become an ad platform (with a thin veneer of value), twitter struggles as it fights the UX of a quick though to consume an ad....