Is the housing bubble about to burst

K Douglas

Half Man Half Amazing
Jan 5, 2005
28,104
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Room 112
If you believe this guy its just a matter of time. Negative amortization I didn't even know that was a thing here in Canada.
 
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dirkd101

Well-known member
Sep 29, 2005
10,414
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eastern frontier
This has been a topic, from before the internet days, so I highly doubt it.

The guy in the video is just looking for clicks. There are and always have been houses that don't sell right away. I see the new strategy by them and the realtor, of putting it back on the market at a low price, to create a bidding war, like the ones that happened before.

Before Covid, there was speculation that the cottage market would "correct" and we've yet to see that happen.
 
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K Douglas

Half Man Half Amazing
Jan 5, 2005
28,104
9,031
113
Room 112
I get it people have been foreshadowing the collapse of the housing market since the 2000's and that hasn't happened at all. In fact its been the inverse.
But there is some economic merit to what this guy is saying. A lot of people bought property in 2020/2021 when the interest rates were so low. Mostly investors. If they are still holding these properties and took out large debt they are going to be looking at significantly higher monthly payments. There is no doubt that real estate speculation, both foreign and domestic, has fueled a lot of the rise in property prices from the past decade. Now that many have fled, the prices need to 'adjust' to what people can afford.
 
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richaceg

Well-known member
Feb 11, 2009
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townhouses in Pickering is reaching record highs of 900s...10 years ago they were at $280k... I'm talking about townhouses from the early 90s....if you have a well kept single in Durham, you have a 1M house right now...
 

K Douglas

Half Man Half Amazing
Jan 5, 2005
28,104
9,031
113
Room 112
I think Durham region in general is faring better than the majority of the GTA. They seem to consistently have the lowest days on the market. But in my opinion it is sheer lunacy that a 3 bedroom townhouse in Pickering is fetching $900K+
 

DesRicardo

aka Dick Dastardly
Dec 2, 2022
3,266
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I've been hearing about a 'housing burst' since 2001. During this anticipated burst, I've seen housing reach levels beyond what I could imagine.

So you tell me?
 

jeff2

Well-known member
Sep 11, 2004
1,746
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I've been hearing about a 'housing burst' since 2001. During this anticipated burst, I've seen housing reach levels beyond what I could imagine.

So you tell me?
Although not impossible, difficult to see a crash with NIMBYS/greenbelts/immigration.
 

Bucktee

Well-known member
Jan 26, 2024
1,523
1,930
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“Land prices are high, it is said, higher than anything would warrant. ‘Why, the workingmen cannot afford to pay at the rate demanded for these tiny outside lots,’ asserted one man recently. The same thing was said here twenty years ago, answer the pioneers; others of us know that it was repeated ten years ago and five years ago, and our children and our children’s children will hear the same tale of woe decades hence.”

- R McDougal, BC Real Estate, 1911.
 
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dirkd101

Well-known member
Sep 29, 2005
10,414
228
63
eastern frontier
I get it people have been foreshadowing the collapse of the housing market since the 2000's and that hasn't happened at all. In fact its been the inverse.
But there is some economic merit to what this guy is saying. A lot of people bought property in 2020/2021 when the interest rates were so low. Mostly investors. If they are still holding these properties and took out large debt they are going to be looking at significantly higher monthly payments. There is no doubt that real estate speculation, both foreign and domestic, has fueled a lot of the rise in property prices from the past decade. Now that many have fled, the prices need to 'adjust' to what people can afford.
Foreign speculators have the cash, so riding out the lows is all a part of it for them. It's the same for most domestic speculators and they can use depreciation as a write off come tax time. The people who it really hurts is the guy who thinks this is his ticket in, so he buys a second property, and then the market tanks and he's left holding a property that he can no longer afford. There aren't too many in this boat, so I'm just not seeing his point fully. Once again, this has always been an issue for some, mortgaging themselves to the max and remortgaging for the wrong reasons too. The percentage of people in this boat is too low to have any effect on the market, and let's face it, this crash would have happened when rates peaked, not when they're coming down.
 

Bucktee

Well-known member
Jan 26, 2024
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“When the real estate boom was in its zenith, property changed hands at prices that were an unmitigated gratification to those who sold them,” writes C.S. Clark in his 1898 social study Toronto The Good.”

“Living in the city is very expensive, the poor are obliged to live in the shaky, tumble-down houses of Centre, Elizabeth, South Jarvis and Lombard and Bathurst … while the middle classes and those of only modest means live in the suburbs.”

“Price $3,000. By the fairest calculation in mathematics, it will be seen that to pay 6%, $180 are required, taxes $48 at least, and then your chances at profit are only contained in the remote contingency of the property increasing in value.”

 

dirkd101

Well-known member
Sep 29, 2005
10,414
228
63
eastern frontier
“Land prices are high, it is said, higher than anything would warrant. ‘Why, the workingmen cannot afford to pay at the rate demanded for these tiny outside lots,’ asserted one man recently. The same thing was said here twenty years ago, answer the pioneers; others of us know that it was repeated ten years ago and five years ago, and our children and our children’s children will hear the same tale of woe decades hence.”

- R McDougal, BC Real Estate, 1911.

Cottage lots (unserviced) have gone through the roof, in the past number of years. I've watched these for well over a decade now and can't believe what they're asking. After you factor in permits, architect's prints, clearing for a road/lot/working area. Bringing in hydro, if it's nearby. Septic, building materials and finding the right contractor. You're out of pocket/time and very large sum. I've looked at a few lots starting at $300k and can't even fathom how anyone can afford such a thing, unless your pockets are really deep.
 
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jamesweller

New member
Jan 26, 2024
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0
1
Houses for as long as they sit on land are gonna be a deep premium to those shit high rises these condo developers keep building.
 
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