James Durso
Feb 13, 2025
U.S. President Donald Trump recently called the Gaza Strip a “demolition site,” and said the Palestinians would be evacuated to Jordan and Egypt, where they would be “thrilled” to live. The U.S. would then take possession of Gaza (“We'll own it’), and would develop it, creating “thousands of jobs,” making it the “the Riviera of the Middle East.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu noted the project, “it’s something that could change history,” and it will, but probably not the way he and Trump think.
Netanyahu called Trump’s idea to deport the Gazans “remarkable” and the “first good idea I've heard,” but just about everyone, everywhere reacted negatively to the plan. The White House quickly clarified the U.S. won’t pay for the reconstruction of Gaza, and it hasn’t made any commitment to send U.S. troops there, but an American private security company will be manning a key Gaza checkpoint and armed American military veterans wearing military-style garb will be as big a target as serving troops and will be valuable hostages.
In the U.S., many Arab American voters wondered if they made a mistake supporting Trump in 2024, and one Arab-American group rebranded, removing “Trump” from its name. According to Pew Research, Muslims will become the second-largest religious group in the U.S. by 2050 and is a demographic the Republicans needs to capture.
Jews continued voting for Democrats in 2024 (79% voted for Democrat candidate
Kamala Harris; 21% voted for Trump, “the lowest proportion of Jewish votes for a Republican presidential candidate in 24 years.”)
Thus, the GOP may secure no net gain in votes and may suffer in the 2026 mid-term elections, so why bother doing this?
In the Middle East, every leader, even the philosemitic Mohamed bin Zayed of the United Arab Emirates, denounced Trump’s idea and Netanyahu’s suggestion that Saudi Arabia host a Palestinian state. The Saudis added they would never normalize relations with Israel if the Palestinians are deported: “the Kingdom’s position is nonnegotiable.” (Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman previously boxed in the kingdom by declaring Israel’s actions in Gaza as “genocide,” precluding a quiet policy reversal at a later date.)
Jordan and Egypt, which Trump expects to host nearly 2 million Palestinians, have the most to lose by receiving angry, involuntary emigrants that will be a destabilizing element. And any bridge funding to support the resettlement will soon dry up, sticking Cairo and Amman with the bill, while the investors in Gaza (who will demand government guarantees) reap the rewards, a sure example of “socializing the costs but externalizing the benefits.”
The Israel Defense Forces are drawing up plans for the departure of Palestinians from Gaza though it remains to be seen how “voluntary” the departures will be if there are no early takers, especially as the refugees will probably land in a refugee camp but with little support from the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA). If the Soviet deportation expert, Ivan Serov, wrote a how-to guide they are probably reading it at HaKirya.
Trump threatened to stop all financial aid to Egypt and Jordan if they refuse to accept the Palestinian deportees from Gaza. King Addullah of Jordan met Trump and held the line by committing to take in 2,000 Palestinian orphans for medical treatment; President el-Sisi of Egypt was slated to meet Trump in mid-February but now will not travel to Washington if the Gaza deportations are on the agenda.
El-Sisi may try to assuage Trump temporarily be accepting some sick refugee kids, but Egypt or Jordan probably don’t have the housing stock or social services to accommodate two million angry refugees. Then there will be the opprobrium of being an accomplice to the Second Nakba which will present physical risk to the two leaders, both of whom have predecessors who were assassinated in office.
The Nakba of 1948 has been laid at the feet of Israel, but the Second Nakba will attach itself firmly to America, allowing Israel to escape any accountability. Executing this plan will cause the deaths of more Israelis and Palestinians, but that is a sacrifice Netanyahu is willing to make.
And the U.S. knows a thing or two about deportations, so it should avoid recommending that policy to others. In the late 1800s it used its army to force the Plains Indians from the grasslands where they lived for 8,000 years onto reservations where many of their descendants still live in poverty today. Key to the success of this strategy was killing off the buffalo the Indians relied on for food. In the words of an U.S. Army officer, “Kill every buffalo you can! Every buffalo dead is an Indian gone.”
When asked if the Palestinians would have a right of return, Trump replied, “No, they wouldn’t…I’m talking about building a permanent place for them,” though the Palestinians would say they have a “permanent place” already. Hamas responded that the Trump plan is "a recipe for failure," and on this the region’s kings and emirs agree with the Islamist insurgents.
In the future, the U.S. will find little support in the region for fighting terrorism, suppressing the Houthi attacks on shipping, partnering with American businesses, and stopping Iran’s nuclear program. And as 10 of the 12 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are majority Muslim, Washington won’t get any help with oil prices.
Even if this situation freezes today, America’s competitors will still take gains as confidence in the U.S. has been hurt, perhaps permanently. If the U.S. stops aid to Jordan and Egypt, they may still make up the loss by soliciting funds from China, Russia, India, Turkey, and the Persian Gulf petrostates, giving the donors more sway in the area. The U.S. may no longer be viewed as the region’s key political partner, but just as the security provider, the “hired muscle” that can be assuaged by regular purchases of weapons. But China will be the preferred investor and technology provider, Russia will be a source of foodstuffs and military aid, and India and Turkey can be providers of other engineering and technology goods and services.
For a guy who is social media savvy, Trump is hurting himself. He promised Khabib Nurmagomedov, the popular Russian (and Muslim) champion martial arts fighter, “We will stop it. I will stop the war [in Gaza].”
This is what an influencer look like: Khabib has 39.6 million followers on Instagram, 8.6 million followers on X, 5.5 million followers on Facebook, and 1.23 million subscribers on YouTube. If Khabib is disappointed with Trump, he can move the needle with the region’s youth and not to America’s gain.
Who benefits? Aside from Israeli extremists and their American supporters, Russia and China will appear as beacons of principle and friendship. Islamist groups will say “I told you so” and start new fundraising and recruiting drives, and Iran can head into negotiations with America for a new nuclear deal declaring the U.S. is only reliable when it comes to backing out its commitments, to wit, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and the two-state solution.
And the future Arab and Muslim position on the two-state solution may change: no more of that “pathway to Palestinian statehood” stuff; in the future, there will be no recognition of Israel until the Palestinian prime minister is in office, the parliament is in session, the borders are secure, and the postage stamps are in circulation.
Washington could have avoided this by forcing Israel and Palestine into negotiations after the announcement of the Abraham Accords, but everyone just pocketed their winnings and moved on. If the two sides had been locked in a room in Dayton, Ohio with an overbearing American overseer and no hope of appealing to the White House, the Accords momentum and the prospect of outsized economic gains may have worked, but that moment was lost, and Hamas reaped the benefits.
And speaking of Hamas, we keep hearing they lost, but the last Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, confessed Hamas has recruited almost as many fighters as it lost. Obviously, Washington and Tel Aviv do not understand the math: Palestinian orphans = Hamas recruits.
And the Hamas handovers of Israeli hostages have been media spectacles that raised the group’s profile as undefeated defenders of the Palestinian people and underlined the reputational damage America has suffered by its laissez-faire reaction to the Israeli attack on Gaza.
The American idea will engender resistance, some violent, that Washington will call “terrorism” to avoid any discussion of the immediate idea or its long-term history in the Middle East.
There is nothing good here for America, and the American people agree; only 13% think it’s a “good idea,” and 47% think it’s a “bad idea,” according to a CBS News/YouGov poll. This may cost the Republicans seats in the 2026 mid-term elections, will isolate the U.S., give Russia and China more opportunity in the region, and possibly engender support for Iran when it faces off against the U.S. and Europe in nuclear negotiations, or grapples with the next round of sanctions. Trump’s best next step is to noisily pivot to something else and leave this bad idea on Netanyahu’s doorstep.
oilprice.com
Feb 13, 2025
- Trump's proposal to deport Gazans to Jordan and Egypt has been widely condemned.
- The plan risks alienating Arab American voters, strengthening anti-U.S. sentiment in the Middle East, and reducing Washington’s credibility.
- The proposal could undermine future cooperation on regional security.
U.S. President Donald Trump recently called the Gaza Strip a “demolition site,” and said the Palestinians would be evacuated to Jordan and Egypt, where they would be “thrilled” to live. The U.S. would then take possession of Gaza (“We'll own it’), and would develop it, creating “thousands of jobs,” making it the “the Riviera of the Middle East.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu noted the project, “it’s something that could change history,” and it will, but probably not the way he and Trump think.
Netanyahu called Trump’s idea to deport the Gazans “remarkable” and the “first good idea I've heard,” but just about everyone, everywhere reacted negatively to the plan. The White House quickly clarified the U.S. won’t pay for the reconstruction of Gaza, and it hasn’t made any commitment to send U.S. troops there, but an American private security company will be manning a key Gaza checkpoint and armed American military veterans wearing military-style garb will be as big a target as serving troops and will be valuable hostages.
In the U.S., many Arab American voters wondered if they made a mistake supporting Trump in 2024, and one Arab-American group rebranded, removing “Trump” from its name. According to Pew Research, Muslims will become the second-largest religious group in the U.S. by 2050 and is a demographic the Republicans needs to capture.
Jews continued voting for Democrats in 2024 (79% voted for Democrat candidate
Kamala Harris; 21% voted for Trump, “the lowest proportion of Jewish votes for a Republican presidential candidate in 24 years.”)
Thus, the GOP may secure no net gain in votes and may suffer in the 2026 mid-term elections, so why bother doing this?
In the Middle East, every leader, even the philosemitic Mohamed bin Zayed of the United Arab Emirates, denounced Trump’s idea and Netanyahu’s suggestion that Saudi Arabia host a Palestinian state. The Saudis added they would never normalize relations with Israel if the Palestinians are deported: “the Kingdom’s position is nonnegotiable.” (Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman previously boxed in the kingdom by declaring Israel’s actions in Gaza as “genocide,” precluding a quiet policy reversal at a later date.)
Jordan and Egypt, which Trump expects to host nearly 2 million Palestinians, have the most to lose by receiving angry, involuntary emigrants that will be a destabilizing element. And any bridge funding to support the resettlement will soon dry up, sticking Cairo and Amman with the bill, while the investors in Gaza (who will demand government guarantees) reap the rewards, a sure example of “socializing the costs but externalizing the benefits.”
The Israel Defense Forces are drawing up plans for the departure of Palestinians from Gaza though it remains to be seen how “voluntary” the departures will be if there are no early takers, especially as the refugees will probably land in a refugee camp but with little support from the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA). If the Soviet deportation expert, Ivan Serov, wrote a how-to guide they are probably reading it at HaKirya.
Trump threatened to stop all financial aid to Egypt and Jordan if they refuse to accept the Palestinian deportees from Gaza. King Addullah of Jordan met Trump and held the line by committing to take in 2,000 Palestinian orphans for medical treatment; President el-Sisi of Egypt was slated to meet Trump in mid-February but now will not travel to Washington if the Gaza deportations are on the agenda.
El-Sisi may try to assuage Trump temporarily be accepting some sick refugee kids, but Egypt or Jordan probably don’t have the housing stock or social services to accommodate two million angry refugees. Then there will be the opprobrium of being an accomplice to the Second Nakba which will present physical risk to the two leaders, both of whom have predecessors who were assassinated in office.
The Nakba of 1948 has been laid at the feet of Israel, but the Second Nakba will attach itself firmly to America, allowing Israel to escape any accountability. Executing this plan will cause the deaths of more Israelis and Palestinians, but that is a sacrifice Netanyahu is willing to make.
And the U.S. knows a thing or two about deportations, so it should avoid recommending that policy to others. In the late 1800s it used its army to force the Plains Indians from the grasslands where they lived for 8,000 years onto reservations where many of their descendants still live in poverty today. Key to the success of this strategy was killing off the buffalo the Indians relied on for food. In the words of an U.S. Army officer, “Kill every buffalo you can! Every buffalo dead is an Indian gone.”
When asked if the Palestinians would have a right of return, Trump replied, “No, they wouldn’t…I’m talking about building a permanent place for them,” though the Palestinians would say they have a “permanent place” already. Hamas responded that the Trump plan is "a recipe for failure," and on this the region’s kings and emirs agree with the Islamist insurgents.
In the future, the U.S. will find little support in the region for fighting terrorism, suppressing the Houthi attacks on shipping, partnering with American businesses, and stopping Iran’s nuclear program. And as 10 of the 12 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are majority Muslim, Washington won’t get any help with oil prices.
Even if this situation freezes today, America’s competitors will still take gains as confidence in the U.S. has been hurt, perhaps permanently. If the U.S. stops aid to Jordan and Egypt, they may still make up the loss by soliciting funds from China, Russia, India, Turkey, and the Persian Gulf petrostates, giving the donors more sway in the area. The U.S. may no longer be viewed as the region’s key political partner, but just as the security provider, the “hired muscle” that can be assuaged by regular purchases of weapons. But China will be the preferred investor and technology provider, Russia will be a source of foodstuffs and military aid, and India and Turkey can be providers of other engineering and technology goods and services.
For a guy who is social media savvy, Trump is hurting himself. He promised Khabib Nurmagomedov, the popular Russian (and Muslim) champion martial arts fighter, “We will stop it. I will stop the war [in Gaza].”
This is what an influencer look like: Khabib has 39.6 million followers on Instagram, 8.6 million followers on X, 5.5 million followers on Facebook, and 1.23 million subscribers on YouTube. If Khabib is disappointed with Trump, he can move the needle with the region’s youth and not to America’s gain.
Who benefits? Aside from Israeli extremists and their American supporters, Russia and China will appear as beacons of principle and friendship. Islamist groups will say “I told you so” and start new fundraising and recruiting drives, and Iran can head into negotiations with America for a new nuclear deal declaring the U.S. is only reliable when it comes to backing out its commitments, to wit, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and the two-state solution.
And the future Arab and Muslim position on the two-state solution may change: no more of that “pathway to Palestinian statehood” stuff; in the future, there will be no recognition of Israel until the Palestinian prime minister is in office, the parliament is in session, the borders are secure, and the postage stamps are in circulation.
Washington could have avoided this by forcing Israel and Palestine into negotiations after the announcement of the Abraham Accords, but everyone just pocketed their winnings and moved on. If the two sides had been locked in a room in Dayton, Ohio with an overbearing American overseer and no hope of appealing to the White House, the Accords momentum and the prospect of outsized economic gains may have worked, but that moment was lost, and Hamas reaped the benefits.
And speaking of Hamas, we keep hearing they lost, but the last Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, confessed Hamas has recruited almost as many fighters as it lost. Obviously, Washington and Tel Aviv do not understand the math: Palestinian orphans = Hamas recruits.
And the Hamas handovers of Israeli hostages have been media spectacles that raised the group’s profile as undefeated defenders of the Palestinian people and underlined the reputational damage America has suffered by its laissez-faire reaction to the Israeli attack on Gaza.
The American idea will engender resistance, some violent, that Washington will call “terrorism” to avoid any discussion of the immediate idea or its long-term history in the Middle East.
There is nothing good here for America, and the American people agree; only 13% think it’s a “good idea,” and 47% think it’s a “bad idea,” according to a CBS News/YouGov poll. This may cost the Republicans seats in the 2026 mid-term elections, will isolate the U.S., give Russia and China more opportunity in the region, and possibly engender support for Iran when it faces off against the U.S. and Europe in nuclear negotiations, or grapples with the next round of sanctions. Trump’s best next step is to noisily pivot to something else and leave this bad idea on Netanyahu’s doorstep.
How Trump’s Gaza Plan Could Hand the Middle East to Russia and China | OilPrice.com
The plan risks strengthening anti-U.S. sentiment in the Middle East, and reducing Washington’s credibility, while Russia and China stand to gain influence in the region.
oilprice.com
