How many goals for Heatley?

[21pro]

according to his pay, he's worth keeping around for 40+ goals, which means to say, those that criticized SJ for picking up Heater have no point in predicting a 40+ goal season...

IMO, I say 46 goals. Playing with Thornton he should get around 300 shots on goal, and my guess is that his scoring percentage would be somewhere around 15.5%... about enough for 46.

let's just hope he doesn't sleep with Joe's fiancee

 

[GlavaMan]

The last team to win the Stanley Cup with a 50 goal man from that season was the 86-87 Oilers!

 

[Bill the Pirate]

with Thornton and Marleau I voted for 48, just because I don;t want the selfish prick to hit the 50 mark

 

[21pro]

I really don't think he has another 50 goal season in him.

 

[whynot888]

I really don't think he has another 50 goal season in him.

With the best passer in the league setting him up, he should have a crack at 50

 

[maurice93]

I really don't think he has another 50 goal season in him.

So you really don't think its likely he will ever get 50, yet you predict something close to that in 46 goals. (such that a minor deviaiton one way would result in 50 goals)

Statistically speaking your two statements appear to be a little contradictory.

 

[dj1470]

Definitely less than 38.
He'll get put on the IR halfway through the season so he can play for Canada in the Olympics and then beg off the rest of the season to spend time at the beach. Exactly what he wanted when he requested a trade and basically demanded he go to either a California or Florida team.
This guy is a lying sack of shit. I hope Yzerman bans him from Team Canada.

 

[21pro]

So you really don't think its likely he will ever get 50, yet you predict something close to that in 46 goals. (such that a minor deviaiton one way would result in 50 goals)

Statistically speaking your two statements appear to be a little contradictory.

not at all. I gave my reason for 46 with stats to prove it. 50 goals is difficult to achieve. there is a formula that shows how each next goal above a certain amount becomes more and more 'impossible' to score. 46 is where he should achieve, with Thornton et al... but, still he's more likely to score 38 not because his stats show he'll only get 38, but the chances of reaching 38 are much greater than 46. 50 is about that distance away in probabilities.

 

[Ironhead]

I checked 51+ and I am thinking he will get around 55 if both he and Thornton stay healthy.

Come playoffs one of two things will happen.
1) Heatley and Thornton will disappear and the Sharks will get bounced in the first or second round.
B) Heatley and Thornton find the magic and the Sharks become the second California team to win the Cup.

 

[The Oracle]

Heatly is a talented guy of that there is no question. I wonder how he is going to adapt to playing on the west coast. The travel schedule and changing time zones can be gruelling. However with a healthy Thoronton putting the puck on his tape every game he should have no problem hitting 50. It will be interesting to see how he deals with the pressure because lets face it if things don't work out in SJ he is running out of hockey lives to cash in.

 

[21pro]

I think how many goals Heatley will get in the playoffs will determine if this trade made sense ..

yes. since his defensive game is non-existent... he doesn't play tough, win face-offs, or kill penalties, he needs to score. I value the trade as 'worthwhile' if he can secure 4 seasons of 40+ goals per season...or a .48 gpg average or better.

considering though, that many may put higher expectations on him... but, realistically if you seperate the name from the talent, that is about where the value should be.

Heatley is a controversial name. His contract pays him to get 40+goals per, but because people love to hate him, if he don't get 50+ he's somehow 'not playing as expected'... Consider Jarome Iginla- he's not near the goal scorer that Heatley is, but alot more popular of a player and when Jarome scores under 40 he's not chased out of town like Dany was.

 

[Ironhead]

Heatley is a controversial name. His contract pays him to get 40+goals per, but because people love to hate him, if he don't get 50+ he's somehow 'not playing as expected'... Consider Jarome Iginla- he's not near the goal scorer that Heatley is, but alot more popular of a player and when Jarome scores under 40 he's not chased out of town like Dany was.

That is because Iginla does take faceoffs, stands up for his teammates, scores goals, throws hits and leads by example.

 

[The Oracle]

That is because Iginla does take faceoffs, stands up for his teammates, scores goals, throws hits and leads by example.

Exactly. Iginla is a team first guy. Always has been always will be. Now who do think Heatly places first, Himself or the team?

 

[21pro]

Oh, I agree 100%. and as such is why I pointed out the obvious.

as for Heatley- I don't think he places himself or his team first... as he has inflicted alot of self-harm during his nhl career. I'm beginning to wonder if he has some mental issues- bipolar or sociopath... He's a fuck-up but, a talented one... I hope he sorts his shit out someday. doubt it, but who knows...?

 

[21pro]

not too shabbyy....

Hat trick on his San Jose home ice debut? wow... i guess I could be wrong about this guy. he's on fire.

on pace for 80+ goals... kinda like Voros at this time last season, eh? except Voros stopped at 8 goals... Voros did 70% of his scoring in October and didn't score again after Nov 28th!