Okay, here's my take.
1. Willie is asking for Draisaitl money (around $8 -ish AAV) and the Leafs want him more at Pastrnak's ($6.67 -ish AAV) level. I think $6.5 is fair and that they are like off by half a million. Michael Nylander, his father, is a stubborn and selfish fool and he is advising his son. Likely against the agent's wishes. That is likely the reason we have this stand off for a 22 year old over not very much money. Both sides want long contracts.
2. Dubas isn't merely negotiating for this contract, he negotiating is for ALL future contracts. Auston will be around 11 - 13 million and Marner will likely fetch 9 or 10 plus. Dubas' reputation is on the line and he arrogantly said he could sign all 3. It has to be on his terms and like I said in #1, the other side doesn't seem like they will budge but Dubas definitely won't and should not budge. That means a stalemate but Dubas has all the leverage. Nylanders camp really has zero leverage unless the leafs go on a deep slide. But even so, it would be hard to argue that it is because of the #1 RW position. We have replacements in Leivo and Ennis.
3. The Leafs don't NEED Nylander. The top 5 most important players on this team in no particular order are: JT, AM, MM, Anderson, Riley and the under-rated and cap-friendly Kadri. I would PREFER a young defenseman than Nylander. I think Willie has a ceiling of 80 or 90 on a great line but may be a 70 point player on this.
Don't get me wrong. I like Nylander. But there is one puck around and a more balanced team is what most of us want since we have so much forward depth.
Think back to the last time with 4 highly paid forwards during the cap years. We're they all making nearly 60 - 70% of the cap together?
Also remember when Colorado had Sakic, Forsberg, Hejduk, Kariya and Selanne? All players who had scored more than 80 points? There's just one puck. And no, they did not ALL score prolifically near 80 points each.
If Willie signs, he will likely score 60 - 75 points on this team but I am betting around 65 average for a few years. There's just not enough ice time to go around.
Personally, I don't think nor do I want him to sign unless it is for Pastrnak money. And then I want him to be traded for a Noah Hanifin type young. I don't believe a model built on 4 high paid forwards is right at all. The Penguins have 3 + Letang and Fleury. That is more balanced.
So I don't think he will come back. If he does, a bridge may be burnt and it won't be long until he's gone.
In this case, I agree with Brian Burke. Force the player's hand. He will be a Leaf or he can play on another team and I think his career will be diminished.
Thoughts?
1. Willie is asking for Draisaitl money (around $8 -ish AAV) and the Leafs want him more at Pastrnak's ($6.67 -ish AAV) level. I think $6.5 is fair and that they are like off by half a million. Michael Nylander, his father, is a stubborn and selfish fool and he is advising his son. Likely against the agent's wishes. That is likely the reason we have this stand off for a 22 year old over not very much money. Both sides want long contracts.
2. Dubas isn't merely negotiating for this contract, he negotiating is for ALL future contracts. Auston will be around 11 - 13 million and Marner will likely fetch 9 or 10 plus. Dubas' reputation is on the line and he arrogantly said he could sign all 3. It has to be on his terms and like I said in #1, the other side doesn't seem like they will budge but Dubas definitely won't and should not budge. That means a stalemate but Dubas has all the leverage. Nylanders camp really has zero leverage unless the leafs go on a deep slide. But even so, it would be hard to argue that it is because of the #1 RW position. We have replacements in Leivo and Ennis.
3. The Leafs don't NEED Nylander. The top 5 most important players on this team in no particular order are: JT, AM, MM, Anderson, Riley and the under-rated and cap-friendly Kadri. I would PREFER a young defenseman than Nylander. I think Willie has a ceiling of 80 or 90 on a great line but may be a 70 point player on this.
Don't get me wrong. I like Nylander. But there is one puck around and a more balanced team is what most of us want since we have so much forward depth.
Think back to the last time with 4 highly paid forwards during the cap years. We're they all making nearly 60 - 70% of the cap together?
Also remember when Colorado had Sakic, Forsberg, Hejduk, Kariya and Selanne? All players who had scored more than 80 points? There's just one puck. And no, they did not ALL score prolifically near 80 points each.
If Willie signs, he will likely score 60 - 75 points on this team but I am betting around 65 average for a few years. There's just not enough ice time to go around.
Personally, I don't think nor do I want him to sign unless it is for Pastrnak money. And then I want him to be traded for a Noah Hanifin type young. I don't believe a model built on 4 high paid forwards is right at all. The Penguins have 3 + Letang and Fleury. That is more balanced.
So I don't think he will come back. If he does, a bridge may be burnt and it won't be long until he's gone.
In this case, I agree with Brian Burke. Force the player's hand. He will be a Leaf or he can play on another team and I think his career will be diminished.
Thoughts?
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