Harvard poll finds voters under 30 predict Obama will lose re-election

[Relic]

This is very bad news for President One Term as this demographic represents a huge vote that he is counting on to get re-elected.

http://www.myfoxorlando.com/dpp/news/politics/121511-harvard-poll-obama-will-lose-re-election

 

[fuji]

How do you want your crow served, when he wins re-election?

 

[Cobster]

He needs to start a war, kinda like how Bush won the 2004 election.
Scaring people into believing that they couldn't change Presidents then in the middle of a crisis.

 

[rld]

This is very bad news for President One Term as this demographic represents a huge vote that he is counting on to get re-elected.

http://www.myfoxorlando.com/dpp/news/politics/121511-harvard-poll-obama-will-lose-re-election

You are so cute and desperate when you do polls. In the same poll when matched up against real repubs...Obama beats them all.

But we went over this before now didn't we...

 

[blackrock13]

You are so cute and desperate when you do polls. In the same poll when matched up against real repubs...Obama beats them all.

But we went over this before now didn't we...

At least Relic has been consistent.

 

[oldjones]

Fascinating how you've taken a question about predicting the winner and turned it into a question about how the poll sample will vote. Are young Americans really so shallow that wanting their secret ballot to be cast for the winner is what makes up their minds? Or was the story just so sloppily written that it equates predicting results with voter choice?

Surely we can do better than this.

 

[Aardvark154]

You are so cute and desperate when you do polls. In the same poll when matched up against real repubs...Obama beats them all.

Actually against Governor Romney it is a dead heat and against Speaker Gingrich not much less than that.

 

[danmand]

Actually against Governor Romney it is a dead heat and against Speaker Gingrich not much less than that.

You wanna bet $5 that Obama will lose the election?

 

[fmahovalich]

Ill bet as well....


I'm saying ANY REPUBLICAN wins the next election.... I got $20 on that wager!

(Be real careful if you wanna accept my wager...any one who knows ol Frankie knows I have accurately called all recent elections....ie Harper majority, Liberal Minority, Fantinos close win in the Bi election, Ford triumph....and many more. i have my finger on the pulse...so take the bet at your own risk)

 

[onthebottom]

I think they are wrong....

OTB

 

[fuji]

Iowa Electronic Markets, where people actually put down money, has it for Obama, but not by much--56% chance versus 42% is pretty damn close for such a market.

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_quotes.html

Intrade, which is open to the public, and the same thing--hey Relic you can bet your real money there, and make a buck if you're right--has it even closer: 51.4% for Obama.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

I just took a quick look at the bid/ask queues and there's $7362 worth of bets on the table right now looking for a buyer that you could bet if you think the chance of Obama winning is lower than 49%. If you really believe a "can of dog food" could beat Obama then this is a sure thing! You should back up the truck and invest as much of your mortgage as the market will take on him losing!

 

[Aardvark154]

Of course it is more complicated than that, since voting is done state by state.

 

[Brill]

Obama's numbers will be lower when his opponent is "fill in the blank with your ideal choice", that's human nature.

When a real candidate with their good points and flaws is selected and put under the spotlight you'll see Obama's numbers rise. Especially if they go with a Tea Party loony right favourite.

 

[cye]

Two things will decide this election economic results and how the base supports Mitt. On the first your guess is as good as mine and on the second I don't think Mitt will be able to energize the base to the level needed unless the economic situation worsens. The longer the republicans take to pick a nominee the more uncomfortable moderate independents and conservative democrats will become and Romney's journey back to the middle will become increasingly difficult.

 

[cye]

New Poll: Ron Paul Out in Front in Iowa
Meanwhile, one-time frontrunner Newt Gingrich has seen his support dwindle.
By Josh Voorhees | Posted Monday, Dec. 19, 2011, at 11:54 AM ET



Here’s the new Public Policy Polling survey that has everyone abuzz Monday.

Out in front in Iowa: Ron Paul, followed by Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich.

Here are the big numbers from the Hawkeye State, which kicks off the GOP nominating contest with its caucuses on Jan. 3: Paul 23 percent, Romney 20 percent, Gingrich 14, Rick Santorum 10, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry 10, Jon Huntsman 4, and Gary Johnson 2 percent.

Depending on how much you love Ron Paul, the libertarian-leaning congressman’s rise is perhaps less noteworthy than Gingrich’s fall. In the past two weeks, the former House speaker's PPP numbers have fallen from 27 percent to 22 percent to this week’s 14 percent. His favorability numbers have likewise dropped, from +31 two weeks ago to -1 this week. A lot of that is no doubt thanks to the wealth of negative ads attacking him that are currently on air in Iowa.

Full poll results here. FYI: PPP is a Democratic polling firm, but there results traditionally are in line with other major pollsters.

 

[Relic]

He needs to start a war, kinda like how Bush won the 2004 election.
Scaring people into believing that they couldn't change Presidents then in the middle of a crisis.

He already has started a war. Comb over Axlelrod and Obama have engaged in class warfare and race baiting since 2008. It won't however get President One Term re-elected in 2012.

 

[rld]

Actually against Governor Romney it is a dead heat and against Speaker Gingrich not much less than that.

The survey also shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney faring best among potential Republican challengers in a general election match-up against Obama, running 11 points behind the president with 26 percent to Obama's 37 percent.

Read more: http://www.myfoxorlando.com/dpp/new...oll-obama-will-lose-re-election#ixzz1h0SUQXrM

11 points is a dead heat? Okay...

 

[WoodPeckr]

Actually against Governor Romney it is a dead heat ....

You must be using bottie's fuzzy numbers.....:biggrin1:

 

[fuji]

Of course it is more complicated than that, since voting is done state by state.

I'm not sure what you are responding to but the markets I quoted predict the winner, not the popular vote (there is also a popular vote market). By either measure the race is a coin toss at this point.

 

[Relic]

Two things will decide this election economic results and how the base supports Mitt. On the first your guess is as good as mine and on the second I don't think Mitt will be able to energize the base to the level needed unless the economic situation worsens. The longer the republicans take to pick a nominee the more uncomfortable moderate independents and conservative democrats will become and Romney's journey back to the middle will become increasingly difficult.

You are actually half right here. The election should be about the economy and President Downgrade's leadership. Instead the Democrats will attempt to engage in race baiting and class warfare, but it wont work this time around.