DIEGO FASSNACHT
SEPTEMBER 24, 2024
Brandenburg’s vote on September 22 was the third and final state election in Eastern Germany this month, following crucial votes in Saxony and Thuringia.
Together, these elections have underlined a significant realignment in the political landscape of eastern Germany. As in the other two states, the right-wing AfD has risen to prominence while Sahra Wagenknecht’s newly formed Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) is emerging as a key power broker.
Although the governing Social Democrats (SPD) outpolled the AfD by a whisker, the Brandenburg election cements the AfD’s position as Germany’s second-largest party and largest party among young voters.
Both the AfD and BSW campaigned on strong opposition to German support for the Ukraine war and for more restrictions on immigration. The SPD avoided electoral disaster in large part because Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed tentative support for an early end to the war.
A noteworthy result of the three elections is the emerging strategic role of the BSW. In Saxony, Thuringia and now in Brandenburg, no majority can be formed without the participation of the BSW, as both the SPD and the CDU have ruled out cooperation with the AfD.
The Brandenburg results not only reinforce the trends seen earlier this September but also have profound strategic implications for the future of German and international politics, where Wagenknecht’s influence is growing as her party becomes essential to governing majorities.
Greens kicked out of parliament
In a dramatic turn of events, the Greens in Brandenburg have fallen below the 5% threshold, making their return to the state parliament increasingly unlikely.
According to the latest projections, the Greens will win just 4.2% of the vote, down from 10.8% in the last election – a staggering loss of over 60% of their support.
This collapse is particularly significant given that the Greens are one of the strongest advocates of military support for Ukraine. Their focus on this issue appears to have alienated a significant part of their voter base in Brandenburg, where foreign military involvement is increasingly unpopular.
This result not only spells the end of the current three-party coalition of SPD, CDU and the Greens but also points to a more profound shift in the electorate.
The battle for first place between the SPD and AfD consumed much of the electoral energy, leaving other parties, such as the CDU, in decline. The CDU’s losses, 3.5 percentage points to 12.1%, reflect the party’s broader struggles as it lost ground in the contest between the two frontrunners.
Throughout the campaign, Brandenburg’s SPD minister president distanced himself as much as possible from the federal SPD and Chancellor Scholz.
The state party deliberately avoided campaign appearances by Scholz, aware of the growing dissatisfaction with the federal government’s handling of key issues such as migration and Ukraine.
More tellingly, members of the Brandenburg SPD reportedly called on the SPD’s national chairwoman, Saskia Esken, not to appear on television, reflecting the deep divide between the regional and national wings of the party.
This dissociation strategy helped the SPD to maintain its lead in Brandenburg with 30.7%, an increase of 4.5 points. It was particularly successful among older voters, with the SPD securing a dominant 50% share of the vote among over-70s.
A power shift: Sahra Wagenknecht’s growing influence
The election results mark a significant power shift for Wagenknecht and her newly formed Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). With 13.4% of the vote, the BSW has become a key player in the Brandenburg state parliament.
Importantly, no majority coalition can be formed without either the AfD or the BSW. With both the SPD and CDU firmly ruling out cooperation with the AfD, the BSW is the only viable partner for either party, giving Wagenknecht considerable leverage in future coalition negotiations.
This newfound influence allows the left-nationalist BSW to broaden its platform, particularly its foreign policy stance, which is in stark contrast to the current government.
The BSW has been vocal in its opposition to military support for Ukraine, arguing instead for immediate peace negotiations and a change in Germany’s role within NATO.
Wagenknecht’s party is also calling for a reassessment of Germany’s sanctions against Russia, arguing that they are hurting the German economy more than Russia’s.
A pro-AfD youth wave
While the SPD dominated among older voters (50% of the vote among 70+-year-olds), the AfD emerged as the clear favorite among younger voters in Brandenburg, securing 32% of the vote among 16-24-year-olds.
This is part of a wider trend across eastern Germany. Following elections in Saxony and Thuringia earlier this year, the AfD has consolidated its position as the strongest party in the region.
In each of these state elections, the AfD won around 30% of the vote, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with the federal government’s policies, particularly on issues such as migration and Ukraine.
With Brandenburg now following the same trajectory as Saxony and Thuringia, the AfD has firmly established itself as the dominant political force in eastern Germany.
Despite the party’s isolation from potential coalition negotiations – with neither the SPD nor the CDU willing to work with it – the AfD’s consistent electoral success demonstrates that it is a force that cannot be ignored.
The results of the Brandenburg election, combined with those of Saxony and Thuringia, confirm a major political shift in eastern Germany.
The AfD is now the strongest party in the region, consistently securing around 30% of the vote in each election. As established parties continue to lose ground, the political landscape in eastern Germany is increasingly defined by populist movements and a rejection of Berlin’s policies.
With the SPD’s continued dominance among older voters and the AfD’s growing appeal among young people, the region remains highly polarized. Without the AfD or the BSW, however, forming a stable government in Brandenburg will be impossible.
As the only viable coalition partner left, Wagenknecht’s BSW will gain even more influence, making her party a key player in shaping Brandenburg’s political future.
asiatimes.com
SEPTEMBER 24, 2024
Brandenburg’s vote on September 22 was the third and final state election in Eastern Germany this month, following crucial votes in Saxony and Thuringia.
Together, these elections have underlined a significant realignment in the political landscape of eastern Germany. As in the other two states, the right-wing AfD has risen to prominence while Sahra Wagenknecht’s newly formed Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) is emerging as a key power broker.
Although the governing Social Democrats (SPD) outpolled the AfD by a whisker, the Brandenburg election cements the AfD’s position as Germany’s second-largest party and largest party among young voters.
Both the AfD and BSW campaigned on strong opposition to German support for the Ukraine war and for more restrictions on immigration. The SPD avoided electoral disaster in large part because Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed tentative support for an early end to the war.
A noteworthy result of the three elections is the emerging strategic role of the BSW. In Saxony, Thuringia and now in Brandenburg, no majority can be formed without the participation of the BSW, as both the SPD and the CDU have ruled out cooperation with the AfD.
The Brandenburg results not only reinforce the trends seen earlier this September but also have profound strategic implications for the future of German and international politics, where Wagenknecht’s influence is growing as her party becomes essential to governing majorities.
Greens kicked out of parliament
In a dramatic turn of events, the Greens in Brandenburg have fallen below the 5% threshold, making their return to the state parliament increasingly unlikely.
According to the latest projections, the Greens will win just 4.2% of the vote, down from 10.8% in the last election – a staggering loss of over 60% of their support.
This collapse is particularly significant given that the Greens are one of the strongest advocates of military support for Ukraine. Their focus on this issue appears to have alienated a significant part of their voter base in Brandenburg, where foreign military involvement is increasingly unpopular.
This result not only spells the end of the current three-party coalition of SPD, CDU and the Greens but also points to a more profound shift in the electorate.
The battle for first place between the SPD and AfD consumed much of the electoral energy, leaving other parties, such as the CDU, in decline. The CDU’s losses, 3.5 percentage points to 12.1%, reflect the party’s broader struggles as it lost ground in the contest between the two frontrunners.
Throughout the campaign, Brandenburg’s SPD minister president distanced himself as much as possible from the federal SPD and Chancellor Scholz.
The state party deliberately avoided campaign appearances by Scholz, aware of the growing dissatisfaction with the federal government’s handling of key issues such as migration and Ukraine.
More tellingly, members of the Brandenburg SPD reportedly called on the SPD’s national chairwoman, Saskia Esken, not to appear on television, reflecting the deep divide between the regional and national wings of the party.
This dissociation strategy helped the SPD to maintain its lead in Brandenburg with 30.7%, an increase of 4.5 points. It was particularly successful among older voters, with the SPD securing a dominant 50% share of the vote among over-70s.
A power shift: Sahra Wagenknecht’s growing influence
The election results mark a significant power shift for Wagenknecht and her newly formed Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). With 13.4% of the vote, the BSW has become a key player in the Brandenburg state parliament.
Importantly, no majority coalition can be formed without either the AfD or the BSW. With both the SPD and CDU firmly ruling out cooperation with the AfD, the BSW is the only viable partner for either party, giving Wagenknecht considerable leverage in future coalition negotiations.
This newfound influence allows the left-nationalist BSW to broaden its platform, particularly its foreign policy stance, which is in stark contrast to the current government.
The BSW has been vocal in its opposition to military support for Ukraine, arguing instead for immediate peace negotiations and a change in Germany’s role within NATO.
Wagenknecht’s party is also calling for a reassessment of Germany’s sanctions against Russia, arguing that they are hurting the German economy more than Russia’s.
A pro-AfD youth wave
While the SPD dominated among older voters (50% of the vote among 70+-year-olds), the AfD emerged as the clear favorite among younger voters in Brandenburg, securing 32% of the vote among 16-24-year-olds.
This is part of a wider trend across eastern Germany. Following elections in Saxony and Thuringia earlier this year, the AfD has consolidated its position as the strongest party in the region.
In each of these state elections, the AfD won around 30% of the vote, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with the federal government’s policies, particularly on issues such as migration and Ukraine.
With Brandenburg now following the same trajectory as Saxony and Thuringia, the AfD has firmly established itself as the dominant political force in eastern Germany.
Despite the party’s isolation from potential coalition negotiations – with neither the SPD nor the CDU willing to work with it – the AfD’s consistent electoral success demonstrates that it is a force that cannot be ignored.
The results of the Brandenburg election, combined with those of Saxony and Thuringia, confirm a major political shift in eastern Germany.
The AfD is now the strongest party in the region, consistently securing around 30% of the vote in each election. As established parties continue to lose ground, the political landscape in eastern Germany is increasingly defined by populist movements and a rejection of Berlin’s policies.
With the SPD’s continued dominance among older voters and the AfD’s growing appeal among young people, the region remains highly polarized. Without the AfD or the BSW, however, forming a stable government in Brandenburg will be impossible.
As the only viable coalition partner left, Wagenknecht’s BSW will gain even more influence, making her party a key player in shaping Brandenburg’s political future.
German state election affirms right-wing AfD's rise - Asia Times
Brandenburg's vote on September 22 was the third and final state election in Eastern Germany this month, following crucial votes in Saxony and Thuringia.
asiatimes.com
